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Today: No. Isolated lightning over southeast MO and southern IL
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Tomorrow: Scattered lightning is possible mainly over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Lesser chances across the rest of the area. Chances of lightning increase over southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, far western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee on Tuesday night.
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- Greatest rain coverage will be Tuesday night, Wednesday night, Thursday and Thursday night.
- Warm week ahead. Windy, as well.
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Today through Wednesday night.
- Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? No.
- Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Some lightning is possible. Isolated today. Scattered Tuesday and Tuesday night (isolated today and tonight). Medium confidence. Lightning possible area-wide Wednesday and especially Wednesday night.
- Is severe weather in the forecast? Possible. I am monitoring Tuesday afternoon into Thursday. Some storms could be intense with hail and high winds. Monitor updates.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes - Is Flash flooding in the forecast? No.
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Thursday through Monday
- Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? No.
- Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning is likely Wednesday into Thursday night. Isolated lightning on Friday and perhaps Saturday. Saturday is low confidence.
- Is severe weather in the forecast? Monitor updates. Some strong storms are possible on Thursday.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes - Is flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor updates. Locally heavy rain is possible Thursday and Thursday night.
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Today’s Facebook weather discussion link
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* The Missouri Bootheel includes Dunklin, New Madrid, and Pemiscot Counties
* Northwest Kentucky includes Daviess, Henderson, McLean Union, and Webster Counties
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Have there been any changes in the forecast over the last 24 hours?
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I had to add a few more showers and clouds into today’s outlook. Otherwise, no major shifts.
I added rain into the Friday and Saturday forecast.
April 29, 2019
Monday’s Forecast: Scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm. The bulk of this will be over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Chances decrease as you move further east/southeast. Warm and breezy. A mix of sun and clouds.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 78° to 80° SE MO 75° to 80° South IL 76° to 80° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 76° to 80° West KY 78° to 82° NW TN 78° to 82°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest at 7 to 14 mph. Gusty, at times.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 82°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 40% to 50% Southeast MO 40% to 50% IL 30% to 40% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 20% Western KY 20% to 30% NW TN 30%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roads. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
UV Index: 7 to 8 Very high.
Sunrise: 6:04 AM
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Monday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Most likely dry. A slight chance of an evening storm near Poplar Bluff, Missouri towards Perryville, Missouri and then towards Mt Vernon, Illinois.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 64° SE MO 58° to 60° South IL 58° to 62° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 60° West KY 58° to 62° NW TN 60° to 64°
Wind direction and speed: S to SW at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty winds.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 56° to 62°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 20% IL 20% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:42 PM
Moonrise: 3:09 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
Moonset: 1:47 PM
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April 30, 2019
Tuesday’s Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. Warm. Breezy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. A few storms could be intense over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 84° SE MO 76° to 82° South IL 78° to 82° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 82° West KY 80° to 84° NW TN 80° to 84°
Wind direction and speed: South at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts likely.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 76° to 84°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 40% Southeast MO 40% IL 30% to 40% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 10% Western KY 10% NW TN 10%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered. The greatest coverage will be across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Chances increase late in the day and especially Tuesday night across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roads and lightning in the above-mentioned areas. A few storms could be intense during the afternoon over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. The bulk of the storms may hold off until Tuesday night.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars in southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.
UV Index: 6 to 9 (depends on clouds) High to very high. Will vary based on clouds.
Sunrise: 6:01 AM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Mild. Breezy. A chance of showers and locally intense thunderstorms from southeast Missouri into southern Illinois. Lesser chances as you move east and southeast.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 66° SE MO 64° to 66° South IL 64° to 66° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 64° West KY 64° to 66° NW TN 64° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: S to SW at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 66°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 60% Southeast MO 70% IL 50% to 60% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30% Western KY 30% NW TN 30%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: A line of showers and thunderstorms. Numerous. The line will weaken as it moves further east. The best chance of rain will be across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Chances decrease as you move east.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Some storms could produce hail and high wind.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Elsewhere, monitor updates and radars.
Sunset: 7:44 PM
Moonrise: 4:11 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
Moonset: 3:41 PM
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May 1, 2019
Wednesday’s Forecast: Quite a few clouds. Showers and thunderstorms. A few storms could be strong. Heavy downpours are possible where storms occur. Windy.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 78° to 80° SE MO 76° to 80° South IL 75° to 80° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 76° to 80° West KY 78° to 82° NW TN 78° to 82°
Wind direction and speed: South at 10 to 25 mph with higher gusts likely.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 78° to 84°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 60% Southeast MO 60% IL 50% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40% Western KY 40% NW TN 40%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roads. Lightning. Some storms could be intense.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would monitor updates. Have alternative outdoor plans.
UV Index: 3 to 6 (depends on clouds) Moderate to high.
Sunrise: 6:00 AM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. A few storms could be strong. Heavy downpours are possible where storms occur.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 63° to 66° SE MO 62° to 64° South IL 62° to 64° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 63° to 66° West KY 63° to 66° NW TN 63° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: S to SW at 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 65°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 60% Southeast MO 60% IL 60% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40% Western KY 50% NW TN 40%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Some storms could be intense.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would monitor updates. Have alternative outdoor plans.
Sunset: 7:45 PM
Moonrise: 4:40 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
Moonset: 3:38 PM
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Thursday: Medium confidence. Cloudy. Warm. A 60% chance of a shower or thunderstorm during the day and a 60% chance at night. High temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Low temperatures in the upper 40s to lower 50s. South and southwest wind 10 to 20 mph and gusty. Winds becoming west and northwest late Thursday at speeds of 8 to 16 mph.
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Friday: Medium confidence. Cloudy with a 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures in the middle 70s. Low temperatures in the middle 50s. West and northwest wind at 7 to 14 mph.
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Saturday: Low confidence. Cloudy. A 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms continuing. It appears showers may linger into the weekend. A stalled frontal boundary is the reason. I will continue to update this part of the forecast. Saturday night the rain chances should come to an end. High temperatures in the middle to upper 70s. Low temperatures in the middle to upper 50s. North and northwest wind during the day at 5 to 10 mph. North wind 5 to 10 mph at night.
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Sunday: Medium confidence. Some morning clouds. Becoming mostly sunny. Warm. High temperatures in the upper 70s. Low temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Variable winds. Light.
Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.
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Wind forecast
Click to enlarge
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Graphic-cast
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** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **
CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.
During active weather check my handwritten forecast.
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Missouri
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Illinois
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Kentucky
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Tennessee
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This will be updated at 8 AM
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The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
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Today and tomorrow: Lightning is possible today over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. I will be monitoring Tuesday and Tuesday night as a disturbance approaches the region. This will mean a few more thunderstorms. Some storms could be intense. Monitor updates.
Wednesday through Sunday: I can’t rule out some intense storms Wednesday and Thursday. Monitor updates. Hail and wind would be the concern. A few storms may linger into Friday.
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Let me show you a couple of maps.
CAPE is energy for thunderstorms to tap into. Check out the CAPE on Tuesday afternoon.
Substantial CAPE. The question will be a trigger. Will there be enough lift for a few thunderstorms to form. If storms were to form then they could be intense with high winds and hail.
Questions remain as to whether storms can form.
The risk is greater to our west. Again, this is the Tuesday and Tuesday night event. Additional storms are likely Wednesday into Thursday.
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Lift index is another parameter used when forecasting storms. Large negative numbers typically mean the severe weather risk increases.
There is certainly enough lift index for concern. Again, the main question is whether or not storms will form.
It is not unusual to have high CAPE and lift index numbers. The issue becomes whether or not storms can form to tap into this energy.
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Future-cast radar.
A line of intense storms to our west. This model shows it weakening as it enters our region.
7 PM Tuesday
10 PM Tuesday
1 AM Tuesday
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Be sure and have WeatherOne turned on in your WeatherTalk accounts. That is the one for winter storms, ice storms, and severe weather.
Log into your www.weathertalk.com
Click the personal notification settings tab.
Turn on WeatherOne. Green is on. Red is off.
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Here is the latest graphic from the WPC/NOAA.
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This map shows precipitation totals.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Here is the seven-day precipitation forecast. This includes day one through seven.
- Warm temperatures.
- The greatest rain coverage will be Wednesday into Thursday. Perhaps centered on Wednesday night/Thursday.
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Current conditions.
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Today and tomorrow.
Monday will deliver warm temperatures. As a matter of fact, many areas outside of thicker clouds will hit the 80-degree mark! Same for Tuesday.
We will have gusty wind over the coming days. Seems to be the theme of this spring. Windy.
A few spotty showers are possible today. Isolated lightning. A mix of sun and clouds.
Rain coverage will be highest over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Rain chances taper as you move further south and east.
Note the sharp cut-off in rain totals on this map. That gives you a decent idea of how this system will unfold.
Greater rain chances to our northwest vs southeast.
These are rain totals through 7 PM Tuesday.
Rain and thunderstorm chances will begin to increase across the region by Tuesday night.
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Rain chances increase area-wide by the middle of the week. See below.
Long Range
Wednesday through Sunday.
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I added rain into the forecast Friday into Saturday.
The pick day of the weekend may end up being Sunday.
It is starting to appear that rain will linger into at least Friday & Friday night. It could linger into Saturday. This is a change from previous forecasts. I was worried about the stalled front. Trends are towards it not leaving the area early enough for the rain to end. I will continue to monitor trends in the guidance packages.
Now, Wednesday and Thursday.
A stationary front will drape itself near the region on both Wednesday and Thursday. This front will be the focus of showers and thunderstorms.
Locally heavy rain is possible. I can’t rule out some intense thunderstorms. For now, wind fields don’t look at that impressive. There is some severe risk but perhaps not all that great. Monitor updates, as always. It only takes one storm to cause problems.
We have been extremely fortunate this spring, so far. Yes, we did have that one day with tornadoes, but overall it has been fairly quiet. Areas to our south have been hit very hard with tornadoes and widespread damage.
Let’s hope we continue this trend into May. Typically, we do see severe weather in May. I am sure this May will be no different. Monitor updates over the coming weeks.
Rainfall totals Wednesday and Thursday will likely be in the 0.50″ to 1.00″ range. Certainly, thunderstorms will produce higher totals. I would not be surprised if a few locations receive 1.5″ to 2.0″ of rain.
The models are struggling with what to do with rain chances Thursday night. Overall, the models have sped up the departure of the system. Meaning, the models want to bring the rain to an end by Thursday afternoon.
I still have rain in the forecast Thursday and Thursday night. I will monitor trends in guidance.
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Model Future-cast Radars. What the models believe the radar may look like.
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Remember, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
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Here is the Hrrr model guidance.
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Here is the high-resolution NAM 3K model.
Time-stamp upper left.
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Here is the GFS long range animation.
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These maps update several times a day. Occasionally, in between updates, you may see a duplicate day or one out of sync.
Forty-eight-hour temperature outlook.
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These are bonus videos.
I pay BAMwx to help with videos.
They do not currently have a Kentucky/Tennessee specific video.
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The Ohio Valley video
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Precipitation outlook
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Preliminary summer outlook
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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.
You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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Tonight’s WeatherBrain features Dr. Harold Brooks from the National Severe Storms Laboratory. Dr. Brooks earned his undergraduate degree in physics and mathematics at William Jewell College outside of Kansas City and performed graduate study at Columbia University. Dr. Brooks earned his PhD on thunderstorm modeling at the University of Illinois.
In addition, our second Guest WeatherBrain Dr. Victor Gensini of Northern Illinois University joins us this week. Dr. Gensini earned his Masters Degree on severe thunderstorm climatology, and wrote his dissertation on severe thunderstorms and climate change. His current focus is on sub-seasonal to seasonal variability, and how that drives weather patterns across the United States. Gentleman, welcome to WeatherBrains!
Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:
- Differences in severe weather events in Tornado Alley and Dixie Alley
- Future product in-between Watch and Warning to warn residents of manufactured homes?
- National Weather Round-up
- The Astronomy Report from Tony Rice
- and more!
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