Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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Good morning, everyone.

We are waking up to cool temperatures area-wide.  Some patchy fog, as well.

There are some clouds in the region this morning.  Clear over our northern counties.  Clouds central and south/southeast.

You can see those clouds on Satellite.  Clouds may linger in some counties today.

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The region experienced showers and thunderstorms yesterday.  Not everyone received rain.  Some locations picked up one to two inches of rain.

There were numerous reports of pea-to-nickel-sized hail, as well.  A couple of reports of larger hail.

A hailstorm formed south of Cairo, Illinois, that produced golfball-sized hail.  There was even a landspout in southeast Missouri next to Sikeston and Wyatt.

Another hailstorm impacted Henry County, Tennessee.  That one produced golfball-sized hail, as well.

The good news is that today will be a nice day.  We do not expect any showers or thunderstorms.  Temperatures will be a bit below average, but nothing extreme.  A few clouds in some counties (as mentioned above).

Saturday will be nice.  A bit cool early in the morning.  No precipitation.  Finally, we will have a nice weekend.

We will have some increase in clouds on Sunday.  That will be ahead of our next system, which is developing to the south.

Clouds will thicken from south to north as we move into Sunday afternoon and night.  I can’t completely rule out a shower by Sunday evening, but rain chances ramp up quite a bit as we move deeper into Sunday night and Monday.

Showers and thunderstorms are likely on Monday and Monday night.  Perhaps lingering into Tuesday, as well.

Uncertainty enters the forecast as we move towards the middle and end of next week.

It will become increasingly hot and muggy next week.  Highs by Thursday will be in the eighties with heat index values popping above ninety degrees.

For example, here are two maps.

Here are the GFS model’s actual air temperatures for next Thursday.  It even shows some nineties in the region.

Heat index values will be even higher.

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Heat index values next Thursday will likely be in the nineties.

Here are the heat index values for next Friday.  Quite warm.

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It will be muggy next week.  Dew points will climb into the upper 60s and perhaps even 70s.  That is air you wear.  Humid.

Check out these numbers.

Next Thursday (dew points).  Dew point is a measure of moisture.

Next Friday’s dew points.  Air you wear.

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The next question will be thunderstorm chances.  I am monitoring next Wednesday into the following week for on-and-off thunderstorm complexes.

There will be plenty of energy for thunderstorms to tap into.  Some severe thunderstorms are likely to be the result.

At this time, questions remain about which days will bring the highest thunderstorm probabilities.  Confidence in the details is low, but confidence in the potential is high.

In other words, I expect several days with a risk of severe weather next week and the following week.  But, for now, I don’t have a clear signal about which days will bring those storms.

I will know more over the coming days.

CAPE values show plenty of energy next week.  Remember, CAPE is energy that thunderstorms tap into.  Higher CAPE numbers usually mean a higher risk of strong/intense thunderstorms.

Here are some CAPE maps.

Next Thursday afternoon.

Next Friday afternoon

Monday the 19th.

Tuesday the 20th of May

Those maps show you the energy that storms may tap into.

I will be monitoring it closely.  We have plenty of time to watch these events.

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Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

GFS model.

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Here is the EC  model.

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