May 8, 2019: Non-subscriber post.

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Wednesday: Monitor updates. Lightning is forecast during Wednesday afternoon and night. A few storms could also be strong with gusty winds and perhaps hail. The risk of heavy storms is greater late Wednesday night moving into the region from MO and AR. The movement will be east and northeast. The main line may arrive after midnight Wednesday (Thursday morning). For now, it appears to be a low-end severe weather risk. The main concern between midnight and sunrise will be a few storms producing nickel size hail and 55 mph wind gusts. The tornado risk will be low. Perhaps not zero.
Thursday: Possible. Some storms on Thursday and Thursday night could be intense with hail and high winds. There remain questions about how unstable the atmosphere will become. Clouds and rain could help lower CAPE (energy) values. That would keep the severe risk lower. Monitor updates.
Friday: No
Saturday: No
Sunday: No
Monday: No
Tuesday: No
Wednesday: No
Thursday: No

Wet to saturated ground conditions.
Monitoring a risk of hail mainly Wednesday night and Thursday (lesser chance today into Wednesday afternoon)
River flooding continues in many areas. Low-land flooding.

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Wednesday through Friday.

Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning is possible Wednesday through Thursday night.
Is severe weather in the forecast? Monitor. Scattered intense storms are possible Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. Another round or two on Thursday & Thursday night. I can’t rule out some severe storms. For now, it appears to be a low-end risk.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is Flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor. Thunderstorms this week will produce locally heavy rain.

Saturday through Tuesday

Is lightning in the forecast? Slight chance. I am monitoring the potential of rain Saturday/Sunday. For now, the risk of lightning appears fairly low.
Is severe weather in the forecast? No.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor. Some of the forecast guidance indicates the potential of another round of moderate rain Saturday into Sunday morning. Monitor updates.

Click here

* The Missouri Bootheel includes Dunklin, New Madrid, and Pemiscot Counties
* Northwest Kentucky includes Daviess, Henderson, McLean Union, and Webster Counties

County Maps: Click Here

Have there been any changes in the forecast over the last 24 hours?
I increased rain chances both Saturday and Sunday.
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What changes might occur in the forecast?

MCS season is here. Complexes of thunderstorms can often time make for tricky forecasts. These large thunderstorm complexes can occasionally survive longer than anticipated. Thus, my biggest concern is one or more of these systems interfering with our daily rain probability numbers
The rain coverage Saturday afternoon into Sunday is in question. Guidance is showing another rain event that could impact our region. Not all of the models have this event. This raises questions about confidence levels in the model data.

HERE IS THE COVERAGE LINK

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May 8, 2019
Wednesday’s Forecast:

A mix of sun and clouds. A few showers and thunderstorms over southeast Missouri. Elsewhere, the chances of thunderstorms will be low. The greatest coverage will be Wednesday afternoon and evening.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 78° to 84° SE MO 78° to 84° South IL 78° to 84° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 78° to 84° West KY 78° to 84° NW TN 80° to 84°
Wind direction and speed: South 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 86°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 40% Southeast MO 40% IL 30% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 10% Western KY 20% NW TN 20%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous (best chance of numerous will be Wednesday PM).
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning, Heavy downpours. Gusty winds. Monitor the risk of a few severe thunderstorms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars and updated forecasts.
UV Index: 8 to 9 Very high
Sunrise: 5:53 AM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Cloudy. Scattered evening showers and thunderstorms. Shower and thunderstorms increasingly likely after midnight. Those storms will push into our region from the southwest. They will move east/northeast.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (40% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 63° to 66° SE MO 63° to 66° South IL 63° to 66° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 63° to 66° West KY 63° to 66° NW TN 63° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: South winds at 8 to 16 mph with gusts above 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 65°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 30% early and 90% after midnight Southeast MO 30% early and then 70% after midnight IL 30% before 2 AM and 60% after 2 AM Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30% Western KY 20% early and then 60% after 2 AM NW TN 30% before 2 AM and then 90% after 2 AM
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning, Heavy downpours. Some storms could produce gusty winds. A low-end severe weather risk.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor radars and updates.
Sunset: 7:51 PM
Moonrise: 8:51 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
Moonset:11:49 PM

May 9, 2019
Thursday’s Forecast:

Mostly cloudy. A band of showers and thunderstorms early Thursday morning. Spotty storms possible during the day. Another round of storms during the late afternoon and night.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 73° to 76° SE MO 73° to 76° South IL 73° to 76° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 73° to 76° West KY 73° to 76° NW TN 73° to 76°
Wind direction and speed: South 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 76°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 70% Southeast MO 60% IL 60% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60% Western KY 60% NW TN 70%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning, Heavy downpours. Gusty winds. Small severe weather risk.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates & radars.
UV Index: 2 Low
Sunrise: 5:52 AM
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Thursday night Forecast: Cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Precipitation ending late.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (50% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 52° to 54° SE MO 50° to 55° South IL 50° to 55° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 52° to 54° West KY 52° to 54° NW TN 54° to 56°
Wind direction and speed: Winds becoming west and northwest at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 46° to 54°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 40% Southeast MO 40% IL 40% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40% Western KY 40% NW TN 40%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: A band of showers and thunderstorms. Rain ending behind the band of storms.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning, Heavy downpours. A low-end severe weather risk.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates & radars.
Sunset: 7:52 PM
Moonrise: 9:48 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 12:01 AM

May 10, 2019
Friday’s Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. A slight chance of a sprinkle. Cooler. Breezy.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 68° SE MO 64° to 68° South IL 64° to 68° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 68° West KY 64° to 68° NW TN 66° to 70°
Wind direction and speed: Northerly at 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 56° to 64°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 10% Southeast MO 10% IL 10% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 20% Western KY 20% NW TN 10%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most. Isolated damp roads.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5 Moderate
Sunrise: 5:51 AM
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Friday night Forecast: Becoming cloudy. A few showers are possible (mainly late).
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low (30% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 52° to 54° SE MO 46° to 52° South IL 46° to 52° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 48° to 52° West KY 52° to 54° NW TN 52° to 54°
Wind direction and speed: Winds becoming north and northeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 46° to 54°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 30% Southeast MO 30% IL 10% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 10% Western KY 30% NW TN 30%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered showers are possible late at night (mainly over the Bootheel into western Tennessee).
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Sunset: 7:53 PM
Moonrise: 10:52 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 12:54 AM

Saturday: Low confidence. Increasing clouds. A 60% chance of showers redeveloping from the south during the afternoon and evening. Rain likely Saturday night. High temperatures in the middle to upper 60s. Low temperatures in the lower 50s. Northeast and east wind at 5 to 10 mph.

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Sunday: Medium confidence. Cloudy with a 40% chance of morning showers. High temperatures in the upper 60’s to lower 70’s. Low temperatures in the lower 50’s. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph.

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Monday: High confidence. Sunny. High temperatures in the lower 70’s. Low temperatures in the lower 50’s. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph.
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Tuesday: Medium confidence. Cloudy with a 40% chance of showers. High temperatures in the middle 70’s. Low temperatures in the upper 50’s. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

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Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.

Wind forecast

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Graphic-cast

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** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

Missouri

Illinois

Kentucky

Tennessee

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Wind forecast

This will be updated at 8 AM

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The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
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Wednesday through Thursday: Lightning will be possible through Thursday evening. A few storms this afternoon into Thursday night could be locally strong. A low-end severe weather risk. There remain questions about whether the atmosphere will be unstable enough for severe thunderstorms. Monitor updates moving forward.

Friday through Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated. At this time, the lightning risk should be limited. I am closely monitoring both Saturday and Sunday for isolated lightning. For now, it appears if we have precipitation it would mainly be rain vs storms.

Numerous value-added severe weather graphics.

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Here is the latest graphic from the WPC/NOAA.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
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Here is the seven-day precipitation forecast. This includes day one through seven.

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MCS season has arrived.
Showers and thunderstorms will be in the forecast. Peak chances will be Wednesday night and Thursday.
Some storms could be intense both Wednesday (mainly Wednesday night) and Thursday.
Cooler as we move into Thursday through Sunday.
Weekend rain chances.

Current conditions.

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May temperature and precipitation outlook

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Precipitation

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MCS season has arrived. What are MCS’s? Here is an article from The Weather Channel. Link.

MCS’s are actually responsible for most of the Midwest’s summer rainfall.

A line of showers and thunderstorms formed overnight to our west. You can see that here (as of this early morning update time)

This line will shift east through the day. The line is not forecast to become severe.

The main concern will be wet roadways and some lightning.

See the live radar at this link Click here

The greatest chance of showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday morning and especially Wednesday afternoon will be across southeast Missouri. Whether they make it into southwest Illinois, western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee is a bit more uncertain.

A stronger line of thunderstorms is forecast to move out of Missouri and Arkansas Wednesday night (late) into early Thursday morning. A couple of those thunderstorms could produce high winds and hail. A low-end tornado risk. Monitor updates. It will likely be after midnight before that line pushes into the region.

The main storm system responsible for the ongoing rain and storms chances will pull through the region Thursday and Thursday night. We will have some locally heavy rain as the system moves east and northeast.

A few of the thunderstorms on Thursday could be strong, as well.

Heavy rain may end up being the primary concern from these thunderstorms.

The WPC/NOAA has placed us in a marginal to a slight risk of excessive rainfall.

That simply means that we could have enough rain to cause flash flooding.

This is the Wednesday and Wednesday night outlook.

Thursday’s outlook for excessive rainfall.

Friday should be mostly dry. There may be some lingering clouds and a few light showers. Most of you will remain dry.

Highs on Friday will likely remain in the 60s and lower 70s. Same for both Saturday and Sunday. Lows in the 40s and 50s. Coolish.

Clouds will help determine high temperatures all three days. Cloud cover may be thicker, at times. That will help keep temperatures a tad lower.

Models are starting to come into better agreement concerning more rain spreading into the region Saturday into Sunday morning.

There are timing differences in the guidance packages. For instance, the EC model guidance spreads rain into the region as early as Saturday morning. Other guidance holds off until Saturday afternoon and evening.

If you have outdoor plans on Saturday and Sunday then you will want to monitor updated forecasts.

Here is the EC model.

The EC model has been most bullish on this system. Other models are not in agreement on totals.

I hope to have a better idea of how this rain event will unfold by tomorrow night and Thursday.

This is the six-hour rain totals from 7 AM Saturday through 1 PM Saturday.

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This is the NAM model guidance.

Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

Timestamp upper left.

Strong word of caution: These MCS/thunderstorm complexes are extremely difficult to forecast. Their movements can completely change a dry forecast.

I encourage you to monitor updates each day. There will likely be adjustments on rain probabilities and timing.

Click the animation to enlarge it,

Here is the high-resolution NAM 3K model.

Timestamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it,

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Here is the high-resolution Hrrr model.

Timestamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it,

Here is the high-resolution SPC WRF model.

Timestamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it,

Looking even further out. The GFS is quite active as we move into May.

This is a longer animation. I just wanted to show you how active this model is. This model goes out to Sunday, May 19th.

Keep in mind, the further out in time you travel the lower confidence in the forecast.

Timestamp upper left. Click to enlarge animations.

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These maps update several times a day. Occasionally, in between updates, you may see a duplicate day or one out of sync.

Forty-eight-hour temperature outlook.

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WeatherBrains Episode 693
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Tonight’s guest WeatherBrain is the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at the NWS Office in Memphis, TN. He is a 31-year veteran of the NWS, and worked at offices in west Texas, north Texas, and Phoenix AZ before moving to Memphis. He received his Bachelors Degree in Meteorology from Florida State, and his Masters from the University of Oklahoma. He has focused on severe storms and storm spotter training throughout his career, and has helped develop spotter training materials that were and are used nationwide. Gary Woodall, welcome to WeatherBrains!

Tonight’s second guest WeatherBrain is a graduating senior from the University of Oklahoma’s School of Meteorology. She is Oklahoma Weather Labs Director of Operations and a Senior Representative to the OU School of Meteorology Student Affairs Committee. Also, she is Deputy Director of the New Student Mentoring Program and a member of the OU Nightly Weather Team. Leah Hill, welcome to WeatherBrains!

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like: