Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

May 7, 2024: Severe weather concerns.

 

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Seven Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast?  YES.  Lightning is likely today into Wednesday night.

2.  Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast?  YES.   A few of the thunderstorms this morning could be severe.  A line of storms will approach southeast Missouri this morning.  It will then move east southeast.  We will have to monitor the intensity of the storms.  Some could be severe.  Overall, this is a lower end risk.  See graphics below.

A significant severe weather threat will develop Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday night.  Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms with damaging wind, hail, and tornadoes will be possible.   Monitor updates.

There remain questions about Tuesday’s event.  Morning clouds and ongoing showers and storms could interfere with the afternoon development.

I am more confident about a severe weather outbreak Wednesday late morning into Wednesday night.  Damaging wind, very large hail, and even strong tornadoes will be possible.

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? MONITOR.  Locally heavy rain will be possible over the coming days.  Slow moving storms could produce heavy rain with pockets of flash flooding.  

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph?  LOW RISK.  Winds will gust above 30 mph Tuesday and Wednesday.  I will keep an eye on it.

5. Will temperatures rise above 100 degrees? NO.

6. Will the heat index (feels like temperature) exceed 100 degrees?  NO.

7. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees?  NO.

8.  Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast?  NO.

9.  Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? NO.  
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines  Freezing fog possible, as well.

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Fire weather risk level.

Tuesday  through Tuesday night: 4.  Low risk.
Wednesday: 4. Low risk.
Wednesday  night: 3. Very low risk.

Fire Weather Discussion

Daily chances of showers and storms are expected through Wednesday, before drier and cooler weather moves in late week. Small rain chances return for parts of the area over the weekend. Severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon and evening, with an even greater potential Wednesday afternoon and evening. Southerly winds increase on Tuesday with gusts of 25 to 30 mph. Winds switch around to westerly by Thursday and remain strong with 25 to 30 mph gusts continuing.

A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5 means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.

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THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. 

Scroll down to see your local forecast details.

Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region.  Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

48-hour forecast Graphics

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Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities).  Your location will be comparable.

Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.

The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.

The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what  year that occurred, as well.

It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.

It shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).

It shows you the average precipitation for today.  Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.

It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.

The sunrise and sunset are also shown.



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Tuesday Forecast:  A mix of sun and clouds.  A chance of showers and thunderstorms. A few storms could be severe early Tuesday morning over mainly southeast Missouri, but we will need to monitor IL, KY, and TN, as well.

We will also be monitoring the risk of severe weather Tuesday/Tuesday night.  Part of that will depend on what happens Tuesday morning.  If we have a lot of clouds and ongoing showers and thunderstorms, then that would lessen the instability levels.  That could keep severe chances lower.  There remain questions about this.  Thus, monitor updates concerning the threat of severe thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 70%
Southeast Missouri ~ 80%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 100%
Southern Illinois ~ 80%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 90%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 90%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%

Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 78° to 82°
Southeast Missouri ~ 78° to 82°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 78° to 82°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 78° to 82°

Southern Illinois ~ 78° to 82°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 78° to 82°
Far western Kentucky ~ 78° to 82°

The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 78° to 82°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 78° to 82°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 78° to 82°

Winds will be from this direction:  Southwest wind direction 15 to 30 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 78° to 82°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Monitor the risk of severe weather.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B and monitor updated forecasts and the radars.
UV Index: 6.  High.
Sunrise: 5:53 AM
Sunset: 7:51 PM
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Tuesday  Night Forecast:  Intervals of clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.  A few storms could be intense.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~  20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%

Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 56° to 58°
Southeast Missouri ~ 56° to 58°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60° to 62°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 58° to 62°
Southern Illinois ~ 60° to 62°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60° to 64°
Far western Kentucky ~ 60° to 65°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 64° to 66°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60° to 62°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 63° to 66°

Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 15 to 30 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Monitor the risk of severe weather.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updated forecasts. Monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 5:51 AM
Moonset: 7:44 PM
The phase of the moon:  New

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Wednesday Forecast:  A mix of sun and clouds.  Showers and thunderstorms.  Some of the storms could be severe.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 80%
Southeast Missouri ~ 80%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 80%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70%
Southern Illinois ~ 70%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 80%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70%

Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 80° to 84°
Southeast Missouri ~ 80° to 84°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 80° to 84°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80° to 84°

Southern Illinois ~ 80° to 84°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 80° to 84°
Far western Kentucky ~ 80° to 84°

The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80° to 84°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80° to 84°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 80° to 84°

Winds will be from this direction:  South southwest wind direction 15 to 30 mph.  Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 84°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Monitor the risk of severe weather.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B and monitor updated forecasts and the radars.
UV Index: 6.  High.
Sunrise: 5:52 AM
Sunset: 7:52 PM
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Wednesday Night Forecast:  Intervals of clouds.  Showers and thunderstorms likely.    Some of the storms could be severe.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 70%
Southeast Missouri ~  70%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80%
Southern Illinois ~ 80%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 80%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 90%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 90%

Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 56° to 58°
Southeast Missouri ~ 56° to 58°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60° to 62°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 58° to 62°
Southern Illinois ~ 60° to 62°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60° to 64°
Far western Kentucky ~ 62° to 65°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 64° to 66°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 62° to 64°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 63° to 66°

Winds will be from this direction: South southwest becoming west 15 to 30 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Monitor the risk of severe weather.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updated forecasts. Monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 5:56 AM
Moonset: 9:00 PM
The phase of the moon:  New

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Thursday Forecast:   Partly to mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%

Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 75° to 80°
Southeast Missouri ~ 75° to 80°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 78° to 80°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 75° to 80°

Southern Illinois ~ 75° to 80°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 75° to 80°
Far western Kentucky ~ 75° to 80°

The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 78° to 82°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 75° to 80°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 78° to 82°

Winds will be from this direction:  West at 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 75° to 80°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 9.  Very high.
Sunrise: 5:51 AM
Sunset: 7:53 PM
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Thursday Night Forecast:   Mostly clear. Cooler.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~  0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%

Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 48° to 52°
Southeast Missouri ~ 48° to 52°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 48° to 52°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 48° to 52°
Southern Illinois ~ 48° to 52°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 48° to 52°
Far western Kentucky ~ 48° to 52°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 50° to 54°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 48° to 52°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 50° to 54°

Winds will be from this direction: North northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 52°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:38  AM
Moonset: 10:12 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Crescent

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Friday Forecast:   Partly to mostly sunny.  A slight chance of a shower over mainly northwest Kentucky.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%

Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated
Timing of the precipitation:  After 12 pm
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 72°
Southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 72°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70° to 72°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70° to 72°

Southern Illinois ~ 70° to 72°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70° to 72°
Far western Kentucky ~ 70° to 72°

The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70° to 72°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70° to 72°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70° to 72°

Winds will be from this direction:  Northwest 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Isolated wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 8.  Very high.
Sunrise: 5:50 AM
Sunset: 7:53 PM
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Friday Night Forecast:   Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~  0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%

Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 48° to 52°
Southeast Missouri ~ 48° to 52°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 48° to 52°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 48° to 52°
Southern Illinois ~ 48° to 52°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 48° to 52°
Far western Kentucky ~ 48° to 52°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 48° to 52°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 48° to 52°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 48° to 52°

Winds will be from this direction:  West northwest 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 52°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:28  AM
Moonset: 11:17 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Crescent

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Weather Highlights and Forecast Discussion

    1.   Warm today into Wednesday.
    2.   Scattered showers and thunderstorms into Wednesday night.
    3.   Some of the storms could be severe this week.  Monitor updates.
    4.  Much cooler weather late week into the weekend.  Below average temperatures.

 

Weather advice:

Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.

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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service here.

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Beau’s Forecast Discussion

A busy period of weather ahead of us.  Let’s break it down.

This morning:

A line of severe thunderstorms has been moving through southeast Missouri.  The line was advancing towards the Mississippi River as of 5 am.

Here is what radar looked like early this morning.  A line of intense storms moving eastward (weakening with time)

The line will continue to move eastward.  Some of the storms could produce damaging wind and hail.  A short lived tornado threat, as well.

With time, we expect this line of storms to wash out or weaken.  That will happen as it moves into southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee.  We will need to monitor it for additional warnings (even into those areas).

This afternoon and evening:

There are questions about whether the atmosphere will recover from this morning’s activity.  Often times, these big lines of storms will produce so many clouds that they keep the atmosphere calmer.

If we see some clearing today, then the atmosphere would rapidly destabilize.  I will be closely monitoring this.  Model data is mixed on the idea of whether we see destabilization.

The area of greatest concern will likely be southeast Illinois, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee.  A lower severe weather risk over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois (this afternoon and evening).

Most models do show at least a few showers and thunderstorms redeveloping this afternoon and tonight.  If storms do redevelop, then they could produce 60 mph winds or greater, quarter size hail or larger, and a tornado.

The Storm Prediction Center has hatched portions of our region.  Mainly portions of northwest Kentucky.  Hatched means a few higher end reports of severe weather will be possible.

See the severe weather outlooks farther down in the blog.  

Tonight

Evening thunderstorms, some of which could be severe, with time will wane and weaken.  That will leave most of tonight quiet.  A lull in the activity

This will allow the atmosphere to recharge tonight and tomorrow morning.  That sets the stage for a potential severe weather outbreak Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Wednesday and Wednesday night

Severe Weather Outbreak Likely

A volatile weather forecast continues to develop for Wednesday and Wednesday night.  All the ingredients are coming together for an outbreak of severe thunderstorms with damaging wind, very large hail, and tornadoes.  A few of the tornadoes could be significant, as well.

I would advise everyone to monitor updated forecasts Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.  Make sure you are paying attention.

Multiple rounds of storms will be possible.  Some counties could be impacted by more than one severe thunderstorm or tornado warning.

Meteorologists are concerned about Wednesday’s weather forecast.  All signals are there for severe storms and the likelihood for one or more severe thunderstorm and/or tornado watches and warnings is very high.

I will be closely monitoring the warm front Wednesday.  Soupy air will develop south of the warm front.

You can see that on this animation of dew points.  Dew points are a measure of moisture.  Dew points in the purple is the soupy air.  Dews in the 70s.  Summer air.

Dew point animation for Wednesday (purple is soupy air)

CAPE is energy that storms tap into to become severe.  You can see on this animation how CAPE builds Wednesday to very high levels.   All those orange and red colors represent a lot of energy.

Looping the CAPE.

Thursday through Sunday

Quieter weather will develop Thursday into Sunday.  There will be a low end shower and thunderstorm chance each day.  But, I will cap chances at 10 to 20%.    Most of the area will simply remain dry and I would certainly not change any activities.

It will be cooler Thursday into next week with below average temperatures.  It will feel more like spring than early summer!

 

—->  I will be off work the first week of June. 

I am taking my dad to Normandy, France for the 80th anniversary of D-Day.  During that time, I will be away from the computer.  Just a heads up!

My Great Uncle, Robert Dodson, was a meteorologist who parachuted in to forecast for D-Day and Operation Overlord.  We are going over to commemorate the event.

Staff Sergeant Robert A. Dodson enlisted in the Army in August 1941 and trained as a weather observer at New Orleans Army Bomber Base in September 1941.

In April 1944, Sergeant Dodson was assigned to the 21st Weather Squadron in Ascot, England and a month later he volunteered jump school training.  As his paperwork was being processed, the jump school was shut down in preparation for “D-Day”.  Undaunted, Sergeant Dodson and his commanding officer convinced the 82nd Airborne Division, located at Manchester, England, to make room for one more soldier.  Sergeant Dodson became a member of an Air Support Party from Ninth Air Force attached to Headquarters, 82nd Airborne Division, which consisted of an Officer in Charge, five communications men who acted as forward air controllers, a driver, and a weather observer, equipped with a half-track and a “veep” (radio equipped jeep).   Sergeant Dodson received a minimum of mock-up training before making his first and only jump.

At 0230hrs on 6 June 1944, Sergeant Dodson jumped with Force “A” of the 82nd Airborne Division commanded by Brigadier General James M. Gavin.  The sky was moonlit and practically clear when he landed about a mile northeast of St. Mere Eglise, France in a field where cattle were grazing.  One other man had landed in the same field with him and the two of them set out at once toward the head of the stick, in spite of a knee injury Sergeant Dodson sustained during the jump.  As they proceeded they picked up eight other members of their outfit one at a time.  Things were progressing according to schedule and they had yet to make contact with the enemy.  They found three injured men along the way, gave them first aid, and continued on.  Along the way they recovered their equipment which they unpacked, selected a VHF radio, and camouflaged the rest of the equipment in a hedgerow before finally linking up with the command post which had relocated to St. Mere Eglise.

The Germans counterattacked, and during thirty-six hours all members of the Air Support Party acted as riflemen.  When the siege was lifted, Sergeant Dodson began his weather observing duties.  Each hour he sent by radio the present weather, wind direction and speed, visibility, ceiling and cloud heights, temperature, and dew point.  For the last elements he was equipped with a shielded psychrometer and psychometric tables, while all other elements were determined visually.  This work continued until 21 June, when Sergeant Dodson was evacuated to the hospital at Bouteville for treatment on the knee he injured during the jump.  He later returned to his unit, which returned to England when it was relieved on 13 July.  Sergeant Dodson, who made his first trip to France during the war with a parachute as a weather observer with the 82nd Airborne Division, returned to France with the headquarters of Ninth Air Force and the 21st Weather Squadron, serving out the rest of the war as chief dispatcher at the motor pool.  He left the service in September 1945.

Sergeant  Dodson’s military decorations include the Bronze Star Medal,  Purple Heart, Europe-Africa-Middle East Campaign medal with 4 bronze service stars (for the Normandy, Northern France, Rhineland and Central Europe campaigns), American Defense Service Medal, and Distinguished Unit Citation.  The Air Weather Service recognized Sergeant Dodson’s World War II service in July 1987 by naming its Specialized Support Award in his honor.


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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.

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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables.  Click here.

Day One Severe Weather Outlook

Day One Severe Weather Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One Tornado Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Tornado Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Hail Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One High wind Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.  Day two outlook.

Day Two Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

 

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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.

24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

  1. The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
  2. The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.

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What am I looking at?

You are looking at computer model data.  Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1  PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1  AM

Green represents light rain.  Dark green represents moderate rain.  Yellow and orange represent heavier rain.

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This  animation is the NAM Model.

This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like.  Each model may be a little different.  The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1  PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1  AM

Double click images to enlarge them.

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This  animation is the FV3 Model.

This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like.  Each model may be a little different.  The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.

Green is rain.  Yellow and orange are heavier rain.  Pink is a wintry mix.  Blue is snow.  Dark blue is heavier snow.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1  PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1  AM

Double click images to enlarge them.

 

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This  animation is the HRRR Model.

This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like.  Each model may be a little different.  The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.

Green is rain.  Yellow and orange are heavier rain.  Pink is a wintry mix.  Blue is snow.  Dark blue is heavier snow.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1  PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1  AM

Double click images to enlarge them.

 

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This  animation is the GFS Model.

This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like.  Each model may be a little different.  The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.

Green is rain.  Yellow and orange are heavier rain.  Pink is a wintry mix.  Blue is snow.  Dark blue is heavier snow.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1  PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1  AM

Double click images to enlarge them.

 

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This  animation is the EC Model.

This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like.  Each model may be a little different.  The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.

Green is rain.  Yellow and orange are heavier rain.  Pink is a wintry mix.  Blue is snow.  Dark blue is heavier snow.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1  PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1  AM

Double click images to enlarge them.

 

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 75 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 54 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.60″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 76 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 54 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.60″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

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Live lightning data: Click here.

Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99

Our new Zoom radar with storm chases

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool.   Click here.

College of DuPage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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Find Beau on Twitter! Share your weather photos! @beaudodson

2016-11-19_11-50-24

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