Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

May 7, 2021. Beau’s subscriber’s weather blog update. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome Once subscribed, download the WeatherTalk app in the app store

 

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Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

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Friday to Friday

1. Is lightning in the forecast?  Yes.   Saturday into Sunday

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Possible.   I am monitoring Sunday afternoon/evening.

The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor.  We don’t need more rain.  More rain is on the way.  Data has come down on totals between now and Sunday.  I will monitor trends in the guidance.  For now, the overall flash flood risk appears small.

4. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? No.

5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? No.

6. Will there be accumulating snow and ice in the forecast?  No.

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May 7, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  High confidence
Friday  Forecast:   Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0%  /  MO Bootheel ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /    South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  Most likely none.
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72°  /  SE MO 68° to 72°  /  South IL 68° to 72°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 72°  /  West KY 68° to 72°  /  NW TN 68° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: West at 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 5:55 AM
Sunset: 7:50 PM
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Friday night Forecast:  Intervals of clouds.  A slight chance of showers late.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 30%  /  MO Bootheel ~ 20%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% /    South IL ~ 20%  /  West KY ~ 10%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10%  /  NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation:  Widely scattered (mainly over SE MO late at night)
Timing of the rain:  Any given point
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 52° /  SE MO 46° to 50°  /  South IL 48° to 52° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 48° to 52° /  West KY 48° to 52° /  NW TN 50° to 54°
Wind direction and speed:  Variable wind direction 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 46° to 52°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Moonrise: 3:47 AM
Moonset: 3:09 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

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May 8, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Saturday  Forecast:   Increasing clouds with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 70%  /  MO Bootheel ~ 60%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 70% /    South IL ~ 70%  /  West KY ~ 60%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60%  /  NW TN ~60%
Coverage of precipitation:  Becoming n numerous
Timing of the rain:  Any given point in the day
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 72°  /  SE MO 58° to 64°  /  South IL 58° to 64°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 65°  /  West KY 62° to 68°  /  NW TN 64° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: South southeast at 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but check updates.
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 5:53 AM
Sunset: 7:52 PM
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Saturday night Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.   Showers and thunderstorms likely.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 70%  /  MO Bootheel ~ 70%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 70% /    South IL ~ 70%  /  West KY ~ 70%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60%  /  NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation:  Numerous.
Timing of the rain:  Any given point
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 62° /  SE MO 53° to 56°  /  South IL 50° to 55° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 53° to 56° /  West KY 54° to 60° /  NW TN 60° to 62°
Wind direction and speed:  Southeast 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 62°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Moonrise: 4:38 AM
Moonset: 5:06 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

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May 9, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Sunday  Forecast:   Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 70%  /  MO Bootheel ~ 70%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 70% /    South IL ~ 70%  /  West KY ~ 70%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 70%  /  NW TN ~70%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Timing of the rain:  Any given point of the day
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 73° to 76°  /  SE MO 68° to 74°  /  South IL 68° to 74°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 72°  /  West KY 70° to 72°  /  NW TN 72° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 76°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 5:52 AM
Sunset: 7:52 PM
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Sunday night Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 40%  /  MO Bootheel ~ 50%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% /    South IL ~ 40%  /  West KY ~ 50%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 50%  /  NW TN ~50%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Timing of the rain:  Any given point
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 52° to 55° /  SE MO 45° to 50°  /  South IL 45° to 50° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 45° to 50° /  West KY 45° to 50° /  NW TN 50° to 55°
Wind direction and speed:  West to northwest at 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 55°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Moonrise: 5:01 AM
Moonset: 6:03 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

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May 10, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Monday  Forecast:   Partly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0%  /  MO Bootheel ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /    South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 66°  /  SE MO 60° to 64°  /  South IL 60° to 64°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 65°  /  West KY 62° to 65°  /  NW TN 63° to 66°
Wind direction and speed:  North 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 5:51 AM
Sunset: 7:53 PM
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Monday night Forecast:  Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0%  /  MO Bootheel ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /    South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  Widely scattered
Timing of the rain:  Any given point
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 46° /  SE MO 42° to 45°  /  South IL 42° to 45° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 42° to 45° /  West KY 44° to 46° /  NW TN 44° to 48°
Wind direction and speed:  Northeast 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 48°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 5:26 AM
Moonset: 7:03 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

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May 11, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  High confidence
Tuesday  Forecast:   Partly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0%  /  MO Bootheel ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /    South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated
Timing of the rain:  Any given point of the day
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 66°  /  SE MO 62° to 65°  /  South IL 62° to 65°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 65°  /  West KY 62° to 65°  /  NW TN 63° to 66°
Wind direction and speed:  Northeast 6 to 12 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 5:50 AM
Sunset: 7:54 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast:  Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0%  /  MO Bootheel ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /    South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 43° to 46° /  SE MO 42° to 44°  /  South IL 42° to 44° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 42° to 44° /  West KY 43° to 46° /  NW TN 43° to 46°
Wind direction and speed:  Northeast 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 46°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 5:53 AM
Moonset: 7:59 PM
The phase of the moon:  New

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May 12, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  High confidence
Wednesday  Forecast:   Partly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0%  /  MO Bootheel ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /    South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated
Timing of the rain:  Any given point of the day
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 66°  /  SE MO 62° to 64°  /  South IL 62° to 64°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 65°  /  West KY 62° to 65°  /  NW TN 63° to 66°
Wind direction and speed:  Northeast 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  A few wet road possible
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 5:49 AM
Sunset: 7:55 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  A chance of a shower.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 30%  /  MO Bootheel ~ 30%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% /    South IL ~ 30%  /  West KY ~ 30%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30%  /  NW TN ~30%
Coverage of precipitation:  Widely scattered
Timing of the rain:  Any given point
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 50° /  SE MO 43° to 46°  /  South IL 43° to 46° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 43° to 46° /  West KY 44° to 46° /  NW TN 48° to 52°
Wind direction and speed:  Northeast 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 43° to 46°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Moonrise: 6:24 AM
Moonset: 8:57 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Crescent

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May 13, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Thursday  Forecast:   Partly cloudy. A slight chance of light rain showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20%  /  MO Bootheel ~ 20%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% /    South IL ~ 20%  /  West KY ~ 20%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20%  /  NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Timing of the rain:  Mainly during the AM hours.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 65° to 70°  /  SE MO 64° to 68°  /  South IL 64° to 68°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 68°  /  West KY 65° to 70°  /  NW TN 65° to 70°
Wind direction and speed:  Northeast 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 65° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  A few wet road possible
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but check radars
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 5:48 AM
Sunset: 7:56 PM
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Thursday night Forecast:  Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0%  /  MO Bootheel ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /    South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 48° /  SE MO 43° to 46°  /  South IL 43° to 46° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 43° to 46° /  West KY 44° to 46° /  NW TN 50° to 52°
Wind direction and speed:  North northeast 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 43° to 46°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 5:53 AM
Moonset: 7:59 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Crescent

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May 14, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  High confidence
Friday  Forecast:   Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0%  /  MO Bootheel ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /    South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 74°  /  SE MO 70° to 74°  /  South IL 70° to 74°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74°  /  West KY 70° to 74°  /  NW TN 70° to 75°
Wind direction and speed:  South 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 5:47 AM
Sunset: 7:57 PM
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Friday night Forecast:  Some increase in clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0%  /  MO Bootheel ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /    South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 55° /  SE MO 50° to 52°  /  South IL 50° to 52° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50° to 52° /  West KY 50° to 54° /  NW TN 50° to 54°
Wind direction and speed:  East 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 55°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:36 AM
Moonset: 10:52 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Crescent

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May 15, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Saturday  Forecast:   Partly sunny.  A slight chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20%  /  MO Bootheel ~ 20%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% /    South IL ~ 20%  /  West KY ~ 20%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20%  /  NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated
Timing of the rain:  Mainly during the PM hours.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 75°  /  SE MO 70° to 74°  /  South IL 70° to 74°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74°  /  West KY 72° to 75°  /  NW TN 72° to 75°
Wind direction and speed:  East at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  A few wet road possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updates
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 5:46 AM
Sunset: 7:58 PM
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Saturday night Forecast:  Intervals of clouds. A chance of a shower or thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 30%  /  MO Bootheel ~ 30%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% /    South IL ~ 30%  /  West KY ~ 30%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30%  /  NW TN ~30%
Coverage of precipitation:  Widely scattered
Timing of the rain:  Any given point
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 60° /  SE MO 56° to 60°  /  South IL 56° to 60° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 56° to 60° /  West KY 56° to 60° /  NW TN 60° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 56° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Moonrise: 8:23  AM
Moonset: 11:44 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Crescent

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May 16, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Sunday  Forecast:   Partly sunny.  A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 30%  /  MO Bootheel ~ 30%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% /    South IL ~ 30%  /  West KY ~ 30%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30%  /  NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Timing of the rain:  Any given point of the day
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 78° to 80°  /  SE MO 75° to 80°  /  South IL 75° to 80°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 75° to 80°  /  West KY 75° to 80°  /  NW TN 75° to 80°
Wind direction and speed:  South at 7 to 14 mph.  Higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 75° to 80°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but check radars
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 5:45 AM
Sunset: 7:58 PM
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Sunday night Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 30%  /  MO Bootheel ~ 30%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% /    South IL ~ 30%  /  West KY ~ 30%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30%  /  NW TN ~30%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Timing of the rain:  Any given point
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 62° /  SE MO 55° to 60°  /  South IL 55° to 60° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 55° to 60° /  West KY 60° to 62° /  NW TN 60° to 62°
Wind direction and speed:  South 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 55° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Moonrise: 9:15 AM
Moonset: : PM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Crescent

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These graphics are changed out between 10:00 AM and 11:00 AM (Monday through Friday only)

Double click on the images to enlarge them.

These are Thursday’s graphics.

New graphics will be posted mid-morning.

 

 

 


Graphic-cast

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

Illinois

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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Kentucky

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.


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.Tennessee

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.


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Today through May 10th:  I am monitoring Sunday’s weather.  Some thunderstorms are possible.  Whether they are severe or not is the question.  Monitor updates.

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Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:

Monitor updates concerning the potential of a few intense storms Sunday.

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Weather Discussion

    1.   Dry today.
    2.   Rain chances return late tonight into Sunday night.
    3.   Monitoring strong thunderstorms chances Sunday (low confidence).

The primary concern through the next few days will be several rounds of showers and thunderstorms.

First, there is a bit of instability this afternoon.  A couple of showers can’t be ruled out over southeast Illinois into northwest Kentucky and then east/southeast of there.

With that said, there is also quite a bit of dry air aloft.

Rain chances begin to ramp up across southeast Missouri tonight (esp late).  That rain will then spread eastward during the day Saturday.

If you have outdoor plans Saturday then have a backup plan.  It may not rain all day, but there will be a couple of rounds of showers and perhaps some thunderstorms.

We are not forecasting severe thunderstorms Saturday.

Widespread showers and thunderstorms will be with us Saturday night into Sunday afternoon.

A few of the thunderstorms Sunday could be intense with gusty wind and even hail.  There is a low-end severe weather risk Sunday.

The Sunday event would be ahead of the cold front.

We dry out Sunday night with only a few remaining showers and thunderstorms.

For now, I have changed the Monday and Tuesday forecast to dry.  A fast moving southern system may clip the region Tuesday night/Wednesday.  That could bring a few showers.

Long range

I think most of us with that the warm weather would arrive and stay.  Unfortunately, it appears that cooler temperatures will not only be with us most of this weekend, but it appears much of next week will deliver at or below average temperatures.  Perhaps as much as 10 to 15 degrees below average.

Here is the GFS departure from average temperatures.   You can see all the blue and purple.  That would be below average.

There is a brief warm-up Sunday ahead of the cold front.

 


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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

  1. The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
  2. The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
  3. The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.

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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.

I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.

You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.

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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.

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.This animation is the 3K NAM American Model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

 

This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

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This next animation is the GFS American Model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

 

This next animation is the EC European Weather model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

 

 

 

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 75 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 54 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.30″

Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.

This outlook covers May 7h through May 13th

Click on the image to expand it.

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 78 degrees

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 58 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.50″
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This outlook covers May 14th through May 20th

Click on the image to expand it.

The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.

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THIS IS UPDATED ON TUESDAY AND FRIDAY
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Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 83 degrees
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 61 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 2.50″ to 2.90″

This outlook covers May 21st through June 2nd

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Precipitation outlook

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LONG RANGE DISCUSSION

Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.

Spring Outlook

E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.

March, April, and May Temperature Outlook

March, April, and May Precipitation Outlook

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May outlooks

E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.

Temperature outlook

May precipitation outlook

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The preliminary June outlooks

E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.

Temperature departures

June precipitation outlook

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Preliminary outlooks

E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.

July Temperature Outlook

July precipitation outlook

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Preliminary outlooks

E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.

August Temperature Outlook

August precipitation outlook

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Summer Outlook

E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.

June, July, and August Temperature Outlook

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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.

June, July, and August Precipitation Outlook

 

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Great news! The videos are now found in your Weathertalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.

These are bonus videos for subscribers.

The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk

Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.

The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.

Apple users click here

Android users click here



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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

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Live lightning data: Click here.

Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99

Our new Zoom radar with storm chases

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.

College of Dupage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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Find Beau on Twitter! Share your weather photos! @beaudodson

2016-11-19_11-50-24

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