This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog
May 6, 2017
Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Clearing. Cool. Windy, early. Patchy fog may develop late.
Temperatures: MO 42 ~ 48 IL 42 ~ 46 KY 42 ~ 46 TN 44 ~ 48
Winds: North winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 20 before 7 pm. Winds becoming north at 4 to 8 with gusts to 12 mph late.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lower visibility if fog develops.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
.
May 7, 2017
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Some morning fog possible. Partly cloudy early and then mostly sunny. A few passing clouds. It should be a nice day. Warmer. Sunday is the pick day of the weekend.
Temperatures: MO ~ 70 to 75 IL 66 to 72 KY 66 to 74 TN 66 to 74
Winds: West and northwest winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Perhaps a few passing clouds.
Temperatures: MO ~ 45 to 50 IL ~ 45 to 50 KY ~ 45 to 50 TN ~ 45 to 50
Winds: South and southeast winds at 4 to 8 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
.
May 8, 2017
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. Slight chance for a shower over southern Illinois and northwest Kentucky. Some guidance shows several bands of clouds in the region. This might impact temperatures. Highest risk for clouds would be over Illinois and Kentucky.
Temperatures: MO ~ 74 to 78 IL 66 to 74 KY 66 to 74 TN 70 to 75
Winds: South winds at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 22 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways if showers develop (IL/KY)
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Not as cool as recent nights. Breezy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 54 to 58 IL ~ 54 to 58 KY ~ 54 to 58 TN ~ 54 to 58
Winds: South and southeast winds at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 25 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
.
May 9, 2017
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny. Warmer. Breezy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 76 to 82 IL 76 to 82 KY 76 to 82 TN 76 to 82
Winds: West and southwest winds at 8 to 16 mph with gusts to 25 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Perhaps a few late night clouds.
Temperatures: MO ~ 56 to 62 IL ~ 56 to 62 KY ~ 56 to 62 TN ~ 58 to 62
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 18 mph.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
.
May 10, 2017
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. A 40% for a shower or thunderstorm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 78 to 84 IL 76 to 82 KY 78 to 84 TN 78 to 84
Winds: South and southwest at 8 to 16 mph with gusts to 22 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updated forecasts.
Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers and perhaps some thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 56 to 64 IL ~ 56 to 64 KY ~ 60 to 65 TN ~ 60 to 65
Winds: West and southwest winds at 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 20 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updated forecasts.
.
May 11, 2017
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Cloudy. A chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 74 to 78 IL 74 to 78 KY 74 to 78 TN 74 to 78
Winds: South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy. A chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 56 to 62 IL ~ 56 to 62 KY ~ 56 to 62 TN ~ 58 to 62
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5 to 10 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
.
May 12, 2017
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Showers possible. Cooler.
Temperatures: MO ~ 60 to 65 IL 60 to 65 KY 60 to 65 TN 60 to 65
Winds: Variable at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 45 to 50 IL ~ 45 to 50 KY ~ 45 to 50 TN ~ 45 to 50
Winds:
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
.
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day
Severe thunderstorm outlook.
Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 60 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Saturday night through Tuesday night: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Wednesday through Friday: Showers are possible. I can’t rule out storms, but it appears they would remain below limits. With that said, it is May and you should monitor updates.
Friday night through Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
—————————————————————————-
Weather analysis for the next few days:
River flooding continues in many areas. Please avoid flooded roadways. Monitor crest levels.
A warming trend will begin on Sunday and last into Wednesday! It will feel like spring.
Check out the high temperatures for Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday.
There is a chance for a few clouds on Monday. This would mainly be over southern Illinois and western Kentucky. We will need to monitor that part of the forecast. If there are clouds then that would impact temperatures. Small chance for showers, as well.
Sunday highs
Monday highs
Tuesday highs
We will have some additional rain chances by Wednesday into Friday.
There remain some questions on timing and coverage. Perhaps the greatest coverage will be Wednesday night into Thursday night.
Guidance is indicating 0.40″ to 0.80″ of rain. Locally higher totals are certainly possible, but there remain some questions on placement. For now, let’s go with the numbers I just gave you. We have time to adjust.
Here is the GFS model guidance. This is future-cast radar
This first image is for 7 pm on Wednesday
This next image is for 1 am on Thursday morning
This next image is for 7 pm on Thursday
This next image is for 1 pm on Friday
Let’s look at the jet stream. This first image was from Saturday evening. Notice how the winds are diving into our region from the north? Watch what happens later in the week.
Now, later in the week you can see the winds are from the southwest. That means more moisture streaming into our region. Rain chances increase with southwest wind flow.
The good news, at least for the time being, is the severe weather risk appears low. I will monitor, as always. It is that time of the year. It does not take much to produce severe storms.
Find me on Twitter
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
Interactive Weather Radar Page. Choose the city nearest your location: Click this link—
National interactive radar: Click this link.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky. These are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Regional Radar
The official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
The Beau Dodson Weather APP is ready for Apple and Android users. The purpose of this app is for me to deliver your text messages instantly. ATT and Verizon have not always been reliable when it comes to speed. The app allows instant delivery.
Some of you have asked if you can keep receiving the texts on your phone and the app. The answer to that is, yes. The Android app will automatically allow that to happen. On the Apple app, however, you will need to go into your app and click settings. Make sure the green tab is OFF. Off means you will still receive the texts to your phone and the app. If you have any questions, then email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
The app is for text subscribers.
The direct download, for the Apple app, can be viewed here
https://itunes.apple.com/us/app/id1190136514
If you have not signed up for the texting service then you may do so at www.beaudodsonweather.com
The Android app is also ready.
Remember, the app’s are for www.weathertalk.com subscribers. The app allows your to receive the text messages faster than ATT and Verizon.
Here is the download link for the Android version Click Here
——————————————————–
If you have not signed up for the texts messages, then please do. Link www.beaudodsonweather.com
Your support helps with the following:
and
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue. 2015 through current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC. I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.
I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas. I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita. I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
Many of the graphics on this page are from www.weatherbell.com
WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions
