Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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Good morning, everyone.

Brrr again this morning.  Some locations were nearing the upper 30s over our northern counties.

Everyone at 6 AM was in the 40s.   A few spots were in the low 50s.

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Well, was yesterday chilly or what!  Many reporting stations never hit the 60 mark.  We were forecasting most areas to hit the low 60s.

Clouds lingered and even sprinkles.  This shaved off a few degrees.  A few places hit sixty to sixty-two.  Many did not.

It has been a frustrating forecast dealing with this large upper-level low.  It has been spinning over our region for days.

A cut-off low is a weatherman’s woe.  So, they say.  They are tricky and do cause forecast headaches.

The good news is that the system is slowly moving away from our region.

Here is the system this morning.  You can see it is now centered over Ohio.

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Many of you are waking up to patchy dense fog and a mix of sun and clouds.  With some luck, we will have a bit more sun today.

That will help temperatures warm a bit more.  Nothing dramatic, but we will take what we can get.

7 AM satellite view.   You can see the spinning upper-level low over the Ohio Valley.  Slowly vivotting away.

Unfortunately, our next system is already moving towards our region.  This one will approach from the west southwest.

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This system is not overly impressive in the rain department, at least not for our region.  I have low-end shower chances starting late tonight and lingering until Thursday night or Friday.

Let’s hope it does not change; the Saturday and Sunday rain probabilities appear minimal.  I will need to monitor Sunday, because the system to our south will be moving north northeast back into our region.  This will bring a few more showers and clouds.

With some luck, it will hold off until Sunday night or Monday.  Giving us a decent weekend with highs in the 70s.

Here is that system to our south on Sunday.  Centered along the Gulf of Mexico.

And then you can see it over our region by Monday.  You can see the large circle area.  That is the upper level low.

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Again, the good news is that we do not expect severe thunderstorms this week!  That is a huge win in May.

Any day without a tornado in May is a great day!

I am watching mid-May for stormier weather.  Long way off and plenty of time to monitor that.

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Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

GFS model.

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Here is the NAM model.

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