May 6, 2021. Beau’s subscriber’s weather blog update. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome Once subscribed, download the WeatherTalk app in the app store

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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

The Severe Weather Blog has been activated. We may have a couple of severe storms this afternoon.

Link https://wp-talk.weathertalk.com/may-6-2021-severe-weather-live-blog/

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Thursday to Thursday

1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Possible. A few storms could become severe this afternoon (Thursday).

The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor. We don’t need more rain. More rain is on the way. Data has come down on totals between now and Sunday. I will monitor trends in the guidance. For now, the overall flash flood risk appears small.

4. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? No.

5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? No.

6. Will there be accumulating snow and ice in the forecast? No.

May 6, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence

The Severe Weather Blog has been activated. We may have a couple of severe storms this afternoon.

Link https://wp-talk.weathertalk.com/may-6-2021-severe-weather-live-blog/

Thursday Forecast: Increasing clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms developing from northwest to southeast.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 60% / MO Bootheel ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / South IL ~ 70% / West KY ~ 70% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 70% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous. A line of showers and storms will move NW to SE
Timing of the rain: Mainly during the afternoon.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 70° / SE MO 66° to 70° / South IL 68° to 72° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 70° / West KY 68° to 70° / NW TN 64° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 5:55 AM
Sunset: 7:50 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Clearing. Cool. Any remaining evening showers will end. Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20% / MO Bootheel ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Before 10 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 42° to 45° / SE MO 40° to 45° / South IL 40° to 45° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 42° to 45° / West KY 42° to 45° / NW TN 58° to 60°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 3:47 AM
Moonset: 3:09 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

May 7, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Friday Forecast: Morning fog. Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% / MO Bootheel ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72° / SE MO 68° to 72° / South IL 68° to 72° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 72° / West KY 68° to 72° / NW TN 68° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: West at 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 5:55 AM
Sunset: 7:50 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A slight chance of showers late.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 30% / MO Bootheel ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 10% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10% / NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered (mainly over SE MO late at night)
Timing of the rain: Any given point
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 52° / SE MO 46° to 50° / South IL 48° to 52° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 48° to 52° / West KY 48° to 52° / NW TN 50° to 54°
Wind direction and speed: Variable wind direction 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 46° to 52°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Moonrise: 3:47 AM
Moonset: 3:09 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

May 8, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast: Increasing clouds with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 70% / MO Bootheel ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 70% / South IL ~ 70% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~60%
Coverage of precipitation: Becoming n numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point in the day
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 72° / SE MO 58° to 64° / South IL 58° to 64° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 65° / West KY 62° to 68° / NW TN 64° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: South southeast at 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check updates.
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 5:53 AM
Sunset: 7:52 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 70% / MO Bootheel ~ 70% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 70% / South IL ~ 70% / West KY ~ 70% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous.
Timing of the rain: Any given point
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 62° / SE MO 53° to 56° / South IL 50° to 55° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 53° to 56° / West KY 54° to 60° / NW TN 60° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 62°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Moonrise: 4:38 AM
Moonset: 5:06 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

May 9, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 70% / MO Bootheel ~ 70% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 70% / South IL ~ 70% / West KY ~ 70% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 70% / NW TN ~70%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the day
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 73° to 76° / SE MO 68° to 74° / South IL 68° to 74° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 72° / West KY 70° to 72° / NW TN 72° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 76°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 5:52 AM
Sunset: 7:52 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 40% / MO Bootheel ~ 50% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 50% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 50% / NW TN ~50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 52° to 55° / SE MO 45° to 50° / South IL 45° to 50° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 45° to 50° / West KY 45° to 50° / NW TN 50° to 55°
Wind direction and speed: West to northwest at 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 55°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Moonrise: 5:01 AM
Moonset: 6:03 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

May 10, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Monday Forecast: Partly sunny. A slight chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20% / MO Bootheel ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 200% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the day
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 66° / SE MO 60° to 64° / South IL 60° to 64° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 65° / West KY 62° to 65° / NW TN 63° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: North 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none. Small chance of wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 5:51 AM
Sunset: 7:53 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of a shower.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 30% / MO Bootheel ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 54° / SE MO 40° to 50° / South IL 40° to 45° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 42° to 45° / West KY 44° to 46° / NW TN 50° to 52°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Moonrise: 5:26 AM
Moonset: 7:03 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

May 11, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Partly sunny. A slight chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20% / MO Bootheel ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 200% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the day
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 66° / SE MO 62° to 64° / South IL 62° to 64° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 65° / West KY 62° to 65° / NW TN 63° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few wet road possible
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 5:50 AM
Sunset: 7:54 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of a shower.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 30% / MO Bootheel ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 48° / SE MO 43° to 46° / South IL 43° to 46° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 43° to 46° / West KY 44° to 46° / NW TN 50° to 52°
Wind direction and speed: East 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 43° to 46°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Moonrise: 5:53 AM
Moonset: 7:59 PM
The phase of the moon: New

These graphics are changed out between 10:00 AM and 11:00 AM (Monday through Friday only)

Double click on the images to enlarge them.

Graphic-cast

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Illinois

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

Kentucky

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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.Tennessee

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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Today through May 10th: A few storms could become severe today (Thursday). The primary concern will be a line of storms advancing northwest to southeast. This line of storms could produce locally heavy rain, lightning, high wind, and even hail.

The Severe Weather Blog has been activated. We may have a couple of severe storms this afternoon.

Link https://wp-talk.weathertalk.com/may-6-2021-severe-weather-live-blog/

Overall, this is a low-end severe weather risk. We may see a few reports of severe weather, but widespread severe weather is unlikely.

Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:

Monitor updates today (Thursday). A few storms could produce high wind and hail.

Weather Discussion

1. Thunderstorms today.
2. Dry Friday.
3. Rain chances return for the weekend.

The Severe Weather Blog has been activated. We may have a couple of severe storms this afternoon.

Link https://wp-talk.weathertalk.com/may-6-2021-severe-weather-live-blog/

A fast moving cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms to the region today.

Clouds are already increasing and thickening. Those clouds will eventually bring a band of showers/storms. The precipitation will move from the northwest towards the southeast.

A line of storms (squall line) is expected to develop along a cold front. The Storm Prediction Center has placed our region in a marginal (level one out of five) risk. That is the lowest of their risk categories.

The primary concern will be a few reports of strong wind and hail. The tornado risk is low. It is not zero. Rarely is the tornado risk zero when you have a severe thunderstorm. It is a low risk.

We clear out tonight and that leaves us with a dry Friday and Friday evening.

Our next weather maker will quickly move into the region Saturday and Sunday. This will bring additional showers and thunderstorms to the region. There may be some locally heavy downpours with that system. We don’t need more rain.

At one point the Saturday and Sunday forecast appeared to be wetter. Now it appears that the heaviest rain and the greatest rain coverage may be a tad to our north.

I have at least scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast from late Friday night into Sunday evening.

Rain totals of 0.60″ to 1.20″ is the going forecast. I will need to monitor trends in case the system wobbles north or south. Overall, there has been a northward trend.

The rain may end by Sunday night. Models begin to split at this point. Some show precipitation linger into Monday and Tuesday. Other data indicates this will be a dry period.

I am going to have to iron out the differences in model guidance.

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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.

What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.

I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.

You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.

This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.

.This animation is the 3K NAM American Model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

This next animation is the GFS American Model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

This next animation is the EC European Weather model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 75 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 54 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.30″

Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.

This outlook covers May 6th through May 12th

Click on the image to expand it.

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.

Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 78 degrees

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 58 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.50″
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This outlook covers May 13th through May 19th

Click on the image to expand it.

The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.

THIS IS UPDATED ON TUESDAY AND FRIDAY

Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average

Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 83 degrees
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 61 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 2.50″ to 2.90″

This outlook covers May 18th through May 31st

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Precipitation outlook