May 6, 2019: Non-subscriber post.

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Today: Isolated lightning is anticipated Monday (SE MO) and more likely Monday night (SE MO and parts of south IL). The greatest risk is the western and northern half of southeast Missouri and the northern half of southern Illinois.
Tomorrow: Scattered lightning is forecast on Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Wednesday: Possible. Lightning is possible during the day on Wednesday. Strong storms are anticipated Wednesday night.
Thursday: Possible. Strong storms are anticipated. Monitor updates.
Friday: No
Saturday: No
Sunday: No
Monday: No
Tuesday: No

A wet pattern will continue this week. Wet to saturated ground conditions.
Monitoring a risk of hail Wednesday night and Thursday.
River flooding continues in many areas. Low-land flooding.
There are some indications next week might not be as active. We can hope.

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Monday through Wednesday.

Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning is possible Monday and Monday night (scattered) into Wednesday night.
Is severe weather in the forecast? Monitor. A few strong may be intense Monday night over the northern parts of southeast Missouri and northern parts of southern Illinois. Mainly along and north of a line from Perry County, Missouri east and northeast into Jefferson County, Illinois. I will also be monitoring Wednesday night for stronger thunderstorms. Hail and wind are the main concern.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is Flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor. Thunderstorms this week will produce locally heavy rain.

Thursday through Sunday

Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning will be possible Thursday and perhaps Thursday night. Low confidence on Thursday nights forecast.
Is severe weather in the forecast? Possible. Monitor updates. Some storms are anticipated to be severe Wednesday night and Thursday.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is flash flooding in the forecast? Possible. Monitor updates. Locally heavy rain Wednesday night into Thursday afternoon.

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* The Missouri Bootheel includes Dunklin, New Madrid, and Pemiscot Counties
* Northwest Kentucky includes Daviess, Henderson, McLean Union, and Webster Counties

County Maps: Click Here

Have there been any changes in the forecast over the last 24 hours?
No

What changes might occur in the forecast?

MCS season is here. Complexes of thunderstorms can often time make for tricky forecasts. These large thunderstorm complexes can occasionally survive longer than anticipated. Thus, my biggest concern is one or more of these systems interfering with our daily rain probability numbers
The weekend forecast is another headache. Model guidance shows everything from heavy rain to sunshine. For now, I added a mention of a few showers. I am closely monitoring trends.

HERE IS THE COVERAGE LINK

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GREEN IS ON. Red is off.

May 6, 2019
Monday’s Forecast: Patchy morning fog. Warm. Partly sunny. A slight chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms over southeast Missouri.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 76° to 80° SE MO 75° to 80° South IL 76° to 78° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 76° to 78° West KY 76° to 80° NW TN 76° to 80°
Wind direction and speed: South 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 76° to 82°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 10% Southeast MO 20% IL 20% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 10% Western KY 20% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: None for most of the area. Isolated over southeast Missouri.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Morning fog could reduce visibility. I am monitoring southeast Missouri for a few showers and thunderstorms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
UV Index: 8 to 9 Very high
Sunrise: 5:55 AM
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Monday night Forecast: Increasing clouds. A complex of thunderstorms is anticipated to form over Missouri. This should bring some showers and thunderstorms into at least our northern counties. That includes areas from Perry County, Missouri northeast towards Jefferson County, Illinois. Elsewhere, the rain chances are lower. Monitor updates.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 64° SE MO 58° to 62° South IL 56° to 60° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 56° to 60° West KY 58° to 62° NW TN 60° to 64°
Wind direction and speed: South wind 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 56° to 62°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 20% Southeast MO 20% far southeast Missouri. 40% to 50% northern parts of southeast Missouri. IL 20% far southern Illinois. 40% to 50% far northern parts of southern Illinois Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 10% Western KY 20% NW TN 20%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Greatest coverage will be across the northern half of southeast Missouri and the southwest portions of southern Illinois. Numerous storms are possible if the complex of thunderstorms forms.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Gusty winds near thunderstorms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Check radars.
Sunset: 7:49 PM
Moonrise: 7:17 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 9:45 PM

May 7, 2019
Tuesday’s Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds with scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Warm and more humid.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (50% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 78° to 84° SE MO 78° to 84° South IL 78° to 84° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 78° to 84° West KY 78° to 84° NW TN 78° to 80
Wind direction and speed: South and southeast 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 86°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 20% Southeast MO 40% to 50% IL 40% to 50% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30% Western KY 20% to 30% NW TN 10%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered. There could be a period of numerous showers and thunderstorms over northern portions of southeast Missouri into southwest Illinois and northern parts of southern Illinois.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roads. Lightning. Monitor the risk of a few intense thunderstorms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
UV Index: 8 to 9 Very high
Sunrise: 5:54 AM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A widely scattered thunderstorm is possible. Mild.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 66° SE MO 62° to 64° South IL 60° to 64° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 64° West KY 64° to 66° NW TN 64° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: South and southeast wind at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 65°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 30% Southeast MO 40% IL 40% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30% Western KY 30% NW TN 30%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Monitor the risk of a few intense thunderstorms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Check radars.
Sunset: 7:50 PM
Moonrise: 8:06 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 10:49 PM

May 8, 2019
Wednesday’s Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are again possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 78° to 84° SE MO 78° to 84° South IL 78° to 84° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 78° to 84° West KY 78° to 84° NW TN 80° to 84°
Wind direction and speed: South 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 86°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 40% Southeast MO 40% IL 40% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30% Western KY 30% NW TN 30%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning, Heavy downpours. Gusty winds. Monitor the risk of a few severe thunderstorms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars and updated forecasts.
UV Index: 8 to 9 Very high
Sunrise: 5:53 AM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Cloudy. Shower and thunderstorms likely. Locally heavy storms are possible, especially over southeast Missouri.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (40% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 63° to 66° SE MO 63° to 66° South IL 63° to 66° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 63° to 66° West KY 63° to 66° NW TN 63° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: South winds at 8 to 16 mph with gusts above 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 65°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 60% Southeast MO 60% IL 60% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60% Western KY 60% NW TN 60%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning, Heavy downpours. Gusty winds. Monitor the risk of severe thunderstorms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates.
Sunset: 7:51 PM
Moonrise: 8:51 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
Moonset:11:49 PM

Thursday: Medium confidence. Mostly cloudy. Some breaks in the clouds. A 40% to 50% chance of thunderstorms during the day and a 30% chance at night. Locally heavy storms are possible. High temperatures in the middle 70s. Low temperatures in the 40s. Southerly wind at 10 to 20 mph during the day becoming northwest at 6 to 12 mph Thursday night.

Friday: Medium confidence. A mix of sun and clouds during the day. Partly cloudy at night. High temperatures in the middle to upper 60s. Low temperatures in the upper 40s to lower 50s. North wind 6 to 12 mph.

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Saturday: Low confidence. Partly sunny with a shower possible. High temperatures in the middle 60s. Low temperatures in the lower 50s. Northeast and east wind at 5 to 10 mph.

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Sunday: Low confidence. Partly sunny with a shower possible. High temperatures in the upper 60’s to lower 70’s. Low temperatures in the middle 50’s. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph.

Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.

Wind forecast

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Agriculture Forecast

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Graphic-cast

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** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

Missouri

Illinois

Kentucky

Tennessee

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Wind forecast

This will be updated at 8 AM

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The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
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Monday and Tuesday: Lightning is possible Monday into Tuesday night. The main chance today will be over southeast Missouri. The further west you travel the greater the chance of lightning. Chances increase tonight and tomorrow morning over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois/northern parts of southern Illinois. Low risk of small hail and strong winds tonight across our northern counties (see graphics below).

Wednesday through Sunday: Lightning is possible Wednesday into Thursday night. Severe storms are possible late Wednesday night and Thursday. Monitor updates.

Numerous value-added severe weather graphics.

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Here is the latest graphic from the WPC/NOAA.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
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Here is the seven-day precipitation forecast. This includes day one through seven.

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Warm weather Monday into Thursday.
Possible MCS Monday night. A few strong storms for our northern counties.
We will have more showers and thunderstorms this week. Locally heavy rain.
Severe weather is possible mainly late Wednesday night and Thursday
Cooler as we move into Thursday and Friday.
Some questions on the weekend forecast (again)

Current conditions.

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May temperature and precipitation outlook

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Precipitation

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Our next weather maker is already starting to produce showers and thunderstorms to our west. This system will bring showers and thunderstorm chances to our region through at least Thursday.

You can see the regional radar at 7 AM. This precipitation will dry up over the coming hours. Perhaps a few showers in southeast Missouri. The main impact will be clouds.

A few showers and thunderstorms are possible as early as today (Monday). The main placement would be over southeast Missouri. The further west you travel the greater the chance of scattered thunderstorms.

High-resolution model guidance packages typically don’t handle this pattern all that well. Monitor updates and radars.

An MCS is possible Monday night across our northern counties.

What is an MCS? It is a large complex of thunderstorms that typically form in May, June, July, and August.

They are impressive looking on IR satellite imagery. They can produce heavy rain and sometimes severe weather.

MCS’s are actually responsible for most of the Midwest’s summer rainfall.

An MCS may form Monday night over northern and central Missouri. It would then slide east and southeast. It should be weakening as it moves into our northern and western counties. There may still be some locally heavy rain, gusty wind, and lightning.

Here is the Hrrr model future-cast radar for Monday night and Tuesday morning. You can see the MCS to our north and west.

The Hrrr model keeps it mostly out of my forecast counties.

Click to enlarge.

MCS’s are not known for following all the weather rules. They can occasionally survive longer than anticipated. Thus, monitor updates tonight and early Tuesday morning.

The area in green is the area most likely to experience some impacts from the showers and thunderstorms.

Even in that area, confidence is rather low.

Tuesday’s weather will be highly dependent on what happens with the possible MCS.

Typically, these systems produce widespread morning cloud cover. This can impact high-temperature forecasts. If we do not have widespread clouds then most of the region will reach the 78 to 84-degree range.

A few showers and thunderstorms are possible both Tuesday and Tuesday night. Low-end severe weather risk during this time-frame.

Again, we will need to monitor the potential MCS late Monday night into early Tuesday morning.

The extended outlook will center out a strong cold front that will bring heavy thunderstorms to the region Wednesday into Thursday.

PWAT values will be high along a stalled stationary front. High PWAT values are an indicator of heavy rainfall.

Here is the high-resolution 3K NAM model guidance future-cast PWAT values.

Here is the GFS model guidance. This goes out further in time.

Timestamp upper left.

The main focus will likely be Wednesday and Thursday. This is when the ingredients come together for a few severe thunderstorms. As always, the finer details of the severe weather potential won’t be known until we draw closer to the event.

Currently, if the model guidance is correct, then we will have a risk of large hail, damaging wind, frequent lightning. The tornado risk will need to be monitor.

I will be live blogging the severe weather. This is a new feature for subscribers. Make sure you have app message option two turned on. That is the option where I send you the link to the severe weather threads (when active). You can set that in your www.weathertalk.com account. Click personal notification settings. Make sure number two is turned on. Green is on. Red is off.

Rainfall totals will vary greatly over the next five days. I do expect the region to receive 0.60″ to 1.20″. There will certainly be pockets of two inches or more.

The highest totals may again end up over Missouri and Illinois.

Training thunderstorms (storms that repeatedly move over the same area) could produce an inch of rain in less than thirty minutes.

Monitor updates.

For now, I have Friday as mostly dry. There is a lower than normal confidence centering around the weekend forecast. The guidance indicates a fast moving system could bring additional showers and thunderstorms. If you have weekend plans then monitor updates. Let’s hope we don’t have yet another wet weekend.

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This is the NAM model guidance.

Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

Timestamp upper left. Click to enlarge animations.

Here is the high-resolution SPC WRF model.

Timestamp upper left. Click to enlarge animations.

Here is the high-resolution NAM 3K model.

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Looking even further out. The GFS is quite active as we move into May.

This is a longer animation. I just wanted to show you how active this model is. This model goes out to Sunday, May 19th.

Keep in mind, the further out in time you travel the lower confidence in the forecast.

Timestamp upper left. Click to enlarge animations.

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These maps update several times a day. Occasionally, in between updates, you may see a duplicate day or one out of sync.

Forty-eight-hour temperature outlook.

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WeatherBrains Episode 693
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Tonight’s guest WeatherBrain is the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at the NWS Office in Memphis, TN. He is a 31-year veteran of the NWS, and worked at offices in west Texas, north Texas, and Phoenix AZ before moving to Memphis. He received his Bachelors Degree in Meteorology from Florida State, and his Masters from the University of Oklahoma. He has focused on severe storms and storm spotter training throughout his career, and has helped develop spotter training materials that were and are used nationwide. Gary Woodall, welcome to WeatherBrains!

Tonight’s second guest WeatherBrain is a graduating senior from the University of Oklahoma’s School of Meteorology. She is Oklahoma Weather Labs Director of Operations and a Senior Representative to the OU School of Meteorology Student Affairs Committee. Also, she is Deputy Director of the New Student Mentoring Program and a member of the OU Nightly Weather Team. Leah Hill, welcome to WeatherBrains!

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like: