May 5, 2024: Severe weather concerns.

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Seven Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. Lightning is possible today into Thursday.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? YES. There is a low level risk of severe weather today into Monday night. There is a higher risk of severe weather Tuesday and Wednesday. Monitor updates.

Today’s threat will mainly be across the Missouri Bootheel and then slightly northeast of there. See the forecast discussion portion of the blog.

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? MONITOR. Locally heavy rain will be possible over the coming days. Slow moving storms could produce heavy rain with pockets of flash flooding.

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? UNLIKELY. Winds will gust above 30 mph Tuesday and Wednesday. I will keep an eye on it. For now, it appears winds will remain below 40 mph.

5. Will temperatures rise above 100 degrees? NO.

6. Will the heat index (feels like temperature) exceed 100 degrees? NO.

7. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? NO.

8. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? NO.

9. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? NO.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines Freezing fog possible, as well.

Fire weather risk level.

Sunday through Sunday night: 3. Very low risk.
Monday: 3. Very low risk.
Monday night: 3. Very low risk.

Fire Weather Discussion

Daily chances of showers and storms will continue today through much of this week, with breezy conditions Tuesday and Wednesday. Afternoon humidity levels will only drop into the 50s and 60s through mid week. Fair to poor dispersion is forecast for the next few days.

A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5 means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.

Scroll down to see your local forecast details.

Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

48-hour forecast Graphics

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Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.

Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.

The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.

The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.

It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.

It shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).

It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.

It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.

The sunrise and sunset are also shown.

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Sunday Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mainly from mid to late afternoon into Sunday night. Moving in from the southwest. A few storms could be intense.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 80%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 70%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Most of the day will be dry. Numerous showers and thunderstorms approach from northeast Arkansas from mid to late afternoon into the evening hours.
Timing of the precipitation: Mostly after 3 PM. Moving in from the southwest.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 74° to 76°
Southeast Missouri ~ 74° to 78°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 78° to 82°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 74° to 76°
Southern Illinois ~ 74° to 78°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 78° to 82°
Far western Kentucky ~ 80° to 82°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 78° to 82°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 76° to 78°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 80° to 84°
Winds will be from this direction: Northeast 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 84°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. A few storms could produce strong and gusty winds and small hail.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather radars, especially during the afternoon and evening hours.
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 5:55 AM
Sunset: 7:49 PM
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Sunday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Moving in from the southwest moving northeast. A few storms could be intense.

What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 90%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 70%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 90%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 90%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 90%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 64°
Southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 64°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 62° to 65°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60° to 64°
Southern Illinois ~ 62° to 64°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60° to 64°
Far western Kentucky ~ 62° to 64°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 62° to 64°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60° to 64°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 62° to 65°
Winds will be from this direction: Variable wind direction becoming east at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty winds near storms. Small hail possible with the most intense storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 4:23 AM
Moonset: 5:14 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

Monday Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. There is some disagreement on rain probabilities tomorrow. As you can see on this graphic. Expect at least some redevelopment of thunderstorms tomorrow late morning into the afternoon. We will have to see about the placement and coverage. Plan on showers and storms to be on radar all day, but it won’t rain at any given spot all day.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 70%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 70%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 70%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 76° to 80°
Southeast Missouri ~ 76° to 80°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 76° to 80°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 76° to 80°
Southern Illinois ~ 76° to 80°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 76° to 80°
Far western Kentucky ~ 76° to 80°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 76° to 80°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 76° to 80°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 76° to 80°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest wind direction 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 75° to 80°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather radars.
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 5:54 AM
Sunset: 7:50 PM
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Monday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. A weakening line of showers and thunderstorms will push into the region late Monday night. This line will be severe over portions of Missouri, but with time will weaken. We will have to keep an eye on the intensity over at least southeast Missouri late Monday night into Tuesday morning. Any severe risk appears to be lower end. I will monitor it.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70%
Southeast Missouri ~ 70%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time, but a weakening line of storms will move into the region late Monday night with greater precipitation coverage. Especially over Missouri/Illinois.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 64° to 68°
Southeast Missouri ~ 64° to 68°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 64° to 68°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 64° to 68°
Southern Illinois ~ 64° to 68°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 64° to 68°
Far western Kentucky ~ 64° to 68°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 64° to 68°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 64° to 68°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 64° to 68°
Winds will be from this direction: South 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 4:51 AM
Moonset: 6:29 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

Tuesday Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. We will be monitoring the risk of severe weather Tuesday/Tuesday night. Part of that will depend on what happens Tuesday morning. If we have a lot of clouds and ongoing showers and thunderstorms, then that would lessen the instability levels. That could keep severe chances lower. There remain questions about this. Thus, monitor updates concerning the threat of severe thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70%
Southeast Missouri ~ 70%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70%
Southern Illinois ~ 70%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 70%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 78° to 82°
Southeast Missouri ~ 78° to 82°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 78° to 82°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 78° to 82°
Southern Illinois ~ 78° to 82°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 78° to 82°
Far western Kentucky ~ 78° to 82°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 78° to 82°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 78° to 82°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 78° to 82°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest wind direction 15 to 30 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 78° to 82°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Monitor the risk of severe weather.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updated forecasts and the radars.
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 5:54 AM
Sunset: 7:50 PM
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Tuesday Night Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 56° to 58°
Southeast Missouri ~ 56° to 58°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60° to 62°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 58° to 62°
Southern Illinois ~ 60° to 62°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60° to 64°
Far western Kentucky ~ 60° to 65°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 64° to 66°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60° to 62°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 63° to 66°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 15 to 30 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Monitor the risk of severe weather.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updated forecasts. Monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 4:51 AM
Moonset: 6:29 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

Wednesday Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. Showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms could be severe.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70%
Southeast Missouri ~ 70%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70%
Southern Illinois ~ 70%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 70%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 80° to 84°
Southeast Missouri ~ 80° to 84°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 80° to 84°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80° to 84°
Southern Illinois ~ 80° to 84°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 80° to 84°
Far western Kentucky ~ 80° to 84°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80° to 84°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80° to 84°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 80° to 84°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest wind direction 15 to 30 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 84°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Monitor the risk of severe weather.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updated forecasts and the radars.
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 5:54 AM
Sunset: 7:50 PM
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Wednesday Night Forecast: Intervals of clouds. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Some of the storms could be severe.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70%
Southeast Missouri ~ 70%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70%
Southern Illinois ~ 70%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 70%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 56° to 58°
Southeast Missouri ~ 56° to 58°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60° to 62°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 58° to 62°
Southern Illinois ~ 60° to 62°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60° to 64°
Far western Kentucky ~ 62° to 65°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 64° to 66°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 62° to 64°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 63° to 66°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest becoming west 15 to 30 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Monitor the risk of severe weather.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updated forecasts. Monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 4:51 AM
Moonset: 6:29 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

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Weather Highlights and Forecast Discussion

1. Warm today into Wednesday.
2. Scattered showers and thunderstorms into Wednesday night.
3. Some of the storms could be severe this week. Monitor updates.
4. Much cooler weather late week into the weekend. Below average temperatures.

Weather advice:

Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.

Weather Talk is one of those ways.

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Beau’s Forecast Discussion

We had some thunderstorms yesterday roll through the region. A few severe thunderstorm warnings were issued across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. I believe there was only one or two reports of actual severe weather.

Most of the storms were below severe levels.

Today will be warm and humid. Most of the day will be dry. A couple of thunderstorms will be possible by late morning into the middle of the afternoon. Pop-up storms.

Numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop over northern Arkansas and southern Missouri by mid to late afternoon. These showers and thunderstorms will move northeast and overspread the region during the afternoon and evening hours.

I am monitor the risk of severe weather over the Missouri Bootheel and then slightly northeast of there. You can see that on this graphic. The dark green zone is the area where a few storms could be severe with damaging wind and hail.

Severe weather parameters aren’t all that impressive today or tonight. This is a low end threat.

Monitor your Beau Dodson Weather app for any weather bulletins.

Here is what the Hrrr model is showing for 3 PM this afternoon. An area of thunderstorms moving northeast out of Arkansas into our region. A few of these storms could be on the strong side as they exit Arkansas, but widespread severe weather is not in the cards for our region.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will be with us Monday into Monday night, as well.

A dying line of storms will move into the region Monday night/Tuesday morning. There is a risk of severe weather to our west Monday and Monday night, but whether that inches into southeast Missouri Monday night is questionable.

I can’t rule it out, but the odds are the bulk of the severe weather will remain to our west. Monitor updates Monday night into Tuesday morning.

Tuesday and Tuesday night will bring additional shower and thunderstorm chances.

Some of the storms could be severe, but once again there remain questions about whether the atmosphere will become unstable enough to support severe thunderstorms.

The question centers around cloud cover and ongoing showers and thunderstorms Tuesday morning. If we have widespread clouds and precipitation, then the risk of severe weather will be lower Tuesday afternoon and night.

On the other hand, if we have less coverage and more sunshine, then the risk of severe weather increases Tuesday afternoon and night. We will need to monitor this portion of the forecast.

Officially, we are in an SPC risk of severe weather Tuesday/Tuesday night. Monitor updates.

Here are the instability levels for Tuesday morning and Tuesday afternoon.

Morning hours. This is when instability is lower.

By Tuesday afternoon, instability levels peak. These are CAPE values. CAPE is instability. Instability feeds thunderstorms. Daytime heating helps build CAPE numbers.

A higher risk of severe weather will develop Wednesday and Wednesday night. This is when the main cold front will push across the region. It will be accompanied by numerous showers and thunderstorms, some of which will likely be severe.

Conditions will be favorable for damaging wind, large hail, and even tornadoes. The Storm Prediction Center has a level two risk of severe weather in our region Wednesday. There is discussion that portions of the level two risk zone will need to be upgraded to a level three and possibly four.

Monitor updates concerning Wednesday’s weather.

Here is the Wednesday morning CAPE levels

Here is the Wednesday afternoon CAPE values. You can see they are higher than Tuesday. This is highly dependent on what happens Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. It is concerning.

The front will push across the region Wednesday night/Thursday morning. A few remaining showers will be possible Thursday and Thursday night, but the bulk of the event will be over by then.

Much cooler weather arrives Thursday into the weekend. Below average temperatures. Lower humidity and lower dew points, as well.

Rainfall totals will vary greatly now through Thursday. Thunderstorms could easily double rain totals. Generally, one to two inches of rain is anticipated through Thursday, but pockets of two inches or greater will occur, as well.

If some areas receive repeated rounds of thunderstorms, then flash flooding could occur. I would not be surprised to see a few locations exceed four inches of rain between now and Thursday. That is not uncommon in a pattern like this.

There are concerns about a hot summer. The bigger question will be precipitation. If the heat dome sets up over us, then typically that means the ring of fire is farther away from us. Ring of fire are summer storms.

If the heat dome sets up right over us, then that would mean drought. If you want showers and thunderstorms, then you want to be on the edge of the heat dome. This is where MCS’s form. MCS’s are large thunderstorm complexes. They bring most of our summer rainfall and can bring severe weather and flooding, as well.

If the heat dome is intense, then the MCS will be intense, as well.

So, with all of that said, I have questions about the placement of the heat dome on these maps. If the heat dome is right on top of us, then we have problems. Drought.

I will be monitoring summer trends.

June Temperature Outlook

June Precipitation Outlook

July Temperature Outlook

July Precipitation Outlook

August Temperature Outlook

August Precipitation Outlook

Summer Outlook

June through August Temperatures

June through August Precipitation

—-> I will be off work the first week of June.

I am taking my dad to Normandy, France for the 80th anniversary of D-Day. During that time, I will be away from the computer. Just a heads up!

My Great Uncle, Robert Dodson, was a meteorologist who parachuted in to forecast for D-Day and Operation Overlord. We are going over to commemorate the event.

Staff Sergeant Robert A. Dodson enlisted in the Army in August 1941 and trained as a weather observer at New Orleans Army Bomber Base in September 1941.

In April 1944, Sergeant Dodson was assigned to the 21st Weather Squadron in Ascot, England and a month later he volunteered jump school training. As his paperwork was being processed, the jump school was shut down in preparation for “D-Day”. Undaunted, Sergeant Dodson and his commanding officer convinced the 82nd Airborne Division, located at Manchester, England, to make room for one more soldier. Sergeant Dodson became a member of an Air Support Party from Ninth Air Force attached to Headquarters, 82nd Airborne Division, which consisted of an Officer in Charge, five communications men who acted as forward air controllers, a driver, and a weather observer, equipped with a half-track and a “veep” (radio equipped jeep). Sergeant Dodson received a minimum of mock-up training before making his first and only jump.

At 0230hrs on 6 June 1944, Sergeant Dodson jumped with Force “A” of the 82nd Airborne Division commanded by Brigadier General James M. Gavin. The sky was moonlit and practically clear when he landed about a mile northeast of St. Mere Eglise, France in a field where cattle were grazing. One other man had landed in the same field with him and the two of them set out at once toward the head of the stick, in spite of a knee injury Sergeant Dodson sustained during the jump. As they proceeded they picked up eight other members of their outfit one at a time. Things were progressing according to schedule and they had yet to make contact with the enemy. They found three injured men along the way, gave them first aid, and continued on. Along the way they recovered their equipment which they unpacked, selected a VHF radio, and camouflaged the rest of the equipment in a hedgerow before finally linking up with the command post which had relocated to St. Mere Eglise.

The Germans counterattacked, and during thirty-six hours all members of the Air Support Party acted as riflemen. When the siege was lifted, Sergeant Dodson began his weather observing duties. Each hour he sent by radio the present weather, wind direction and speed, visibility, ceiling and cloud heights, temperature, and dew point. For the last elements he was equipped with a shielded psychrometer and psychometric tables, while all other elements were determined visually. This work continued until 21 June, when Sergeant Dodson was evacuated to the hospital at Bouteville for treatment on the knee he injured during the jump. He later returned to his unit, which returned to England when it was relieved on 13 July. Sergeant Dodson, who made his first trip to France during the war with a parachute as a weather observer with the 82nd Airborne Division, returned to France with the headquarters of Ninth Air Force and the 21st Weather Squadron, serving out the rest of the war as chief dispatcher at the motor pool. He left the service in September 1945.

Sergeant Dodson’s military decorations include the Bronze Star Medal, Purple Heart, Europe-Africa-Middle East Campaign medal with 4 bronze service stars (for the Normandy, Northern France, Rhineland and Central Europe campaigns), American Defense Service Medal, and Distinguished Unit Citation. The Air Weather Service recognized Sergeant Dodson’s World War II service in July 1987 by naming its Specialized Support Award in his honor.

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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.

Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables. Click here.

Day One Severe Weather Outlook

Day One Severe Weather Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One Tornado Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Tornado Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Hail Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One High wind Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook. Day two outlook.

Day Two Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.

24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.

What am I looking at?

You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.