Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. 

SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.

The LIVE Severe weather blog has been activated for Thursday’s potential severe weather event.
Link: https://wtalk.co/EWDP8CF2

48-hour forecast

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May 5, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  Medium confidence

The LIVE Severe weather blog has been activated for Thursday’s potential severe weather event.
Link: https://wtalk.co/EWDP8CF2
Thursday Forecast:  Showers and thunderstorms likely.  On and off chances throughout the day.  Some storms could be severe.  There will be a warm front pushing northward through the region.  There should be a wide range of temperatures from north to south.  Cooler far north.  Warmest far south.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 100% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 100%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 90% /  the rest of South IL ~ 80%  /  West KY ~ 80%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 70%  /  NW TN ~ 90%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 76° to 80°  /  SE MO 72° to 75° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 70° to 72° /  South IL 74° to 76°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 74° to 76°  /  West KY 74° to 76° /  NW TN 76° to 80°
Winds will be from the:   South southeast 7 to 14 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 73° to 76°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Monitor the risk of severe thunderstorms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates
UV Index: 4.  Moderate.
Sunrise: 5:56 AM
Sunset:  7:48 PM
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Thursday night Forecast:   A chance of showers and thunderstorms.  Some storms could be severe.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 100% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 90%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 80% /  the rest of South IL ~ 80%  /  West KY ~ 80%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 80%  /  NW TN ~ 100%
Coverage of precipitation:  Numerous
Timing of the rain:  Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 64° /  SE MO 56° to 58° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 56° to 58° /  South IL 56° to 58° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 56° to 58° /  West KY 56° to 58° /  NW TN 62° to 64°
Winds will be from the: Southwest 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 55° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Monitor the risk of severe thunderstorms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates
Moonrise: 9:04 AM
Moonset:
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Crescent

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May 6, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  High confidence
Friday Forecast:   Intervals of clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.  A few storms could be intense.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 40%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% /  the rest of South IL ~ 60%  /  West KY ~ 60%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 70%  /  NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered to perhaps numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 74°  /  SE MO 70° to 72° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 70° to 72° /  South IL 70° to 72°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 72°  /  West KY 70° to 72° /  NW TN 72° to 74°
Winds will be from the: South southwest 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways. Lighting. Some storms could produce high wind and hail.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and check the radars.
UV Index: 7.  High.
Sunrise: 5:55 AM
Sunset:  7:49 PM
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Friday night Forecast:   Partly cloudy.  A chance of an evening shower or thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 30%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% /  the rest of South IL ~ 30%  /  West KY ~ 30%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30%  /  NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Before 10 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 58° /  SE MO 52° to 54° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 52° to 54° /  South IL 53° to 56° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 53° to 56° /  West KY 54° to 56° /  NW TN 56° to 58°
Winds will be from the: West northwest 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 56°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check updates
Moonrise: 9:57 AM
Moonset: 12:36 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Crescent

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May 7, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast:   Partly to mostly sunny.  A slight chance of a light shower.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 10% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 10%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% /  the rest of South IL ~ 10%  /  West KY ~ 10%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10%  /  NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 74°  /  SE MO 70° to 74° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 70° to 74° /  South IL 70° to 74°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74°  /  West KY 70° to 74° /  NW TN 70° to 74°
Winds will be from the: Northwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 74°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most.  Isolated wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8.  Very high.
Sunrise: 5:54 AM
Sunset:  7:50 PM
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Saturday night Forecast:   Decreasing clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 52° to 54° /  SE MO 50° to 54° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 50° to 54° /  South IL 52° to 54° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 52° to 54° /  West KY 52° to 54° /  NW TN 52° to 54°
Winds will be from the: East northeast 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 54°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:55 AM
Moonset: 1:20 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Crescent

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May 8, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  High confidence
Sunday Forecast:   Mostly sunny.  Warm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 82°  /  SE MO 76° to 80° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 76° to 80° /  South IL 76° to 80°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 76° to 80°  /  West KY 78° to 80° /  NW TN 78° to 82°
Winds will be from the: East southeast 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 75° to 80°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9.  Very high.
Sunrise: 5:53 AM
Sunset:  7:51 PM
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Sunday night Forecast:  Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 66° /  SE MO 62° to 65° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 62° to 64° /  South IL 62° to 64° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 64° /  West KY 62° to 64° /  NW TN 64° to 66°
Winds will be from the: Southeast 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:55 AM
Moonset: 1:59 AM
The phase of the moon:  First Quarter

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May 9, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  High  confidence
Monday Forecast:   Mostly sunny.  Quite warm and muggy.  Breezy, at times.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 86° to 90°  /  SE MO 86° to 88° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 84° to 88° /  South IL 84° to 88°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 84° to 88°  /  West KY 84° to 88° /  NW TN 84° to 88°
Winds will be from the: South southwest 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 86° to 92°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9.  Very high.
Sunrise: 5:52 AM
Sunset:  7:52 PM
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Monday night Forecast:  Mostly clear.  Mild.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72° /  SE MO 66° to 68° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 64° to 66° /  South IL 64° to 66° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 66° /  West KY 64° to 68° /  NW TN 68° to 72°
Winds will be from the: South 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:57 PM
Moonset:  2:33 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Gibbous

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May 10, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  High  confidence
Tuesday Forecast:   Mostly sunny.  Quite warm and muggy.  Breezy, at times.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 92°  /  SE MO 86° to 88° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 84° to 88° /  South IL 84° to 88°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 84° to 88°  /  West KY 84° to 88° /  NW TN 88° to 82°
Winds will be from the: South southwest 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 86° to 92°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9.  Very high.
Sunrise: 5:51 AM
Sunset:  7:53 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast:  Mostly clear.  Mild.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72° /  SE MO 66° to 68° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 64° to 66° /  South IL 64° to 66° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 66° /  West KY 64° to 68° /  NW TN 68° to 72°
Winds will be from the: South 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:00 PM
Moonset:  3:02 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Gibbous

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** The farming portion of the blog has been moved further down.  Scroll down to the weekly temperature and precipitation outlook.  You will find the farming and long range graphics there. **

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

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Today through May 8th:  A few storms could become severe Thursday afternoon and Thursday night.  The primary concern will be damaging wind and hail.   A tornado can’t be ruled out.

The risk is highest across the Missouri Bootheel and then along the Kentucky/Tennessee border southward.

A few storms could be severe Friday, as well.  Damaging wind and hail will be the primary concern.

The LIVE Severe weather blog has been activated for Thursday’s potential severe weather event.
Link: https://wtalk.co/EWDP8CF2

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Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

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Forecast Discussion

The LIVE Severe weather blog has been activated for Thursday’s potential severe weather event.
Link: https://wtalk.co/EWDP8CF2

Thursday into Saturday 

The primary concern today and tonight will be showers and thunderstorms.

The risk is highest across the Missouri Bootheel and then along the Kentucky/Tennessee border southward.

We are waking up to a band of widespread precipitation from Missouri southward to Arkansas.

7 AM radar

All of this precipitation is raising questions about how unstable the atmosphere can become throughout today.  This seems to be a big question in our region in almost every event over the past few months.

In order for the atmosphere to destabilize and produce severe thunderstorms you need several ingredients.  Those include higher dew points, often times sunshine or breaks in the clouds, rising temperatures, and an atmosphere that has not been worked over by ongoing showers and thunderstorms.

When you see widespread precipitation, in an area expecting severe weather, then you have to wonder if the atmosphere can recharge or recover.

That is not a given today.  We will have to see what happens with this morning activity.  Does it weaken?  Do the clouds break up?

If the atmosphere can recover, then severe thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and evening along a northward moving warm front.  This warm front will divide warmer and moister air to the south and drier/cooler air to the north.

This will be the battle-ground zone where severe weather may develop.

Usually, the most intense thunderstorms form along and south of the warm front.

We need to pay attention this afternoon into the evening hours.  It is possible that supercells form.  If that happens then they could produce damaging wind, large hail, and even a tornado.

Supercells tend to be more scattered in nature.  Compared to a line of thunderstorms (squall line).

Supercells can produce very strong wind gusts, large hail, and longer tracked tornadoes, as well.

Confidence in severe weather developing remains low.  We just are going to have to see if the atmosphere can destabilize during the afternoon hours.

Monitor your Beau Dodson Weather app and the live severe weather blog.

Thunderstorms will likely continue into tonight and tomorrow morning.

A cold front will push across the region late tonight.  That should bring another band of thunderstorms through the region.  Some of those could produce gusty winds, frequent lightning, hail, and heavy rain.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue Friday.  With the front near the region, additional severe thunderstorms will be possible.  The front has slowed.

The risk of severe weather will include 60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.  At one point, it appeared severe weather would not be a concern Friday.  The slowing front changed that.

The primary concern will be the eastern half of the region.

A few showers and thunderstorms will linger into Friday night, but decreasing overall.

Saturday will deliver some clouds and perhaps one or two showers on radar.  The bulk of the region should be dry Saturday.

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Sunday through Wednesday

Dry conditions are anticipated Sunday through Wednesday.  Some of the guidance indicates a few showers and thunderstorms next Thursday and Friday (long way off for confidence on that).

It is going to quickly warm up.  It is also going to become muggier.  Summer weather.

Expect 70s and 80s Sunday.  Then, expect widespread upper 80s to lower 90s Monday through Wednesday.

Dew points will rise into the muggy 70s next week.  It will feel more like summer than spring.

Dew point is a measure of moisture in the atmosphere.  That is what makes it feel sticky outside.

Monday dew points

Tuesday dew points

Wednesday dew points

A cold front may approach from the east Thursday and Friday.  We call this a backdoor cold front because it approaches from the east.  If this happens, then clouds would increase, temperatures would lower, and we might see some showers and thunderstorms.

Confidence in that backdoor cold front is currently medium.  Not all the models are showing this happening.

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This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1 PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

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This next animation is the GFS American Model.

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Double click the graphics below to enlarge them.

These graphics are usually not updated until after 10 AM

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Double click on images to enlarge them

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Double click on images to enlarge them

 

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 74 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 55 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″

Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.

This outlook covers May 5th through May 11th

Click on the image to expand it.

These are usually updated between 8:30 and 9:30 AM

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Red/orange is below average. Green/blue is above average. Blue is much above average.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 76 degrees

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 58 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″
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This outlook covers May 12th through May 18th

Click on the image to expand it.

 

The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.

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THIS IS UPDATED ON TUESDAY AND FRIDAY

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Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around  81 degrees
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 60 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 2.00″ to 2.40″

This outlook covers May 30th through May 30th

Precipitation outlook

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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

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Live lightning data: Click here.

Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99

Our new Zoom radar with storm chases

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.

College of Dupage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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