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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
Tuesday through Tuesday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Tuesday night. Thursday night.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? No. Small hail is possible Tuesday night (tonight). Mainly over southern Illinois and northwest Kentucky. Isolated.
* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.
4. Will there be a chance of a frost or freeze? Monitor. I am monitoring Friday, Saturday, and Sunday night. Temperatures may fall into the 36 to 44-degree range. The chance of frost would be higher the further north you travel in the region. I64 corridor would have a higher risk. Monitor updates.
5. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? No.
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May 5, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Cloudy. A few isolated showers remaining.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72° SE MO 64° to 68° South IL 60° (coolest north) to 65° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 63° to 66° West KY 68° to 72° NW TN 70° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest wind 10 to 20 mph. Use care on area lakes.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 70°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:55 AM
Sunset: 7:49 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Some storms could produce dime size hail. The chance of rain will be higher over the northern parts of southeast Missouri and then into southern Illinois.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 43° to 46° SE MO 42° to 46° South IL 40° to 45° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 44° West KY 42° to 44° NW TN 43° to 46°
Wind direction and speed: North and northwest at 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 18 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 46°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways. Isolated lightning. Isolated hail.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 5:54 PM
Moonset: 5:03 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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May 6, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Partly sunny. A slight chance of light showers early in the day. Decreasing clouds west to east.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 64° SE MO 60° to 64° South IL 60° to 64° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 64° West KY 62° to 64° NW TN 62° to 64°
Wind direction and speed: West and northwest at 7 to 14 mph. Gusts to 16 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 62°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:54 AM
Sunset: 7:50 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Clearing. Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 42° to 45° SE MO 40° to 44° South IL 40° to 45° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 42° to 45° West KY 42° to 44° NW TN 42° to 45°
Wind direction and speed: North wind 5 to 10 mph becoming 0 to 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 45°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lower visibility if fog forms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:08 PM
Moonset: 5:36 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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May 7, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly sunny before 12 PM. Then, some increase in clouds from the west. A slight chance of a late day shower over southeast Missouri.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 70° SE MO 64° to 68° South IL 64° to 68° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 66° West KY 64° to 68° NW TN 66° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: West and southwest wind 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 66°
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most of the region.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:53 AM
Sunset: 7:51 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Increasing clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Scattered before 9 PM. Increasing coverage west to east after 9 PM.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 90% IL ~ 90% KY ~ 90% TN ~ 90%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 52° SE MO 46° to 52° South IL 45° to 50° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 48° to 52° West KY 46° to 50° NW TN 46° to 50°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 50°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered early. Becoming numerous.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars early. After 9 PM, have a plan B.
Moonrise: 8:22 PM
Moonset: 6:13 AM
The phase of the moon: Full
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May 8, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Friday Forecast: Cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms during the morning. Becoming more and more scattered as we move through the day. Ending west to east.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 64° SE MO 58° to 62° South IL 58° to 64° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 64° West KY 62° to 65° NW TN 62° to 65°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest wind at 6 to 12 mph becoming northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty wind.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 62°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous early in the day. Ending west to east.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates.
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 5:52 AM
Sunset: 7:52 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Clearing. If the wind subsides, then patchy frost will be possible over northern portions of southern Illinois and northern portions of southeast Missouri.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 38° to 40° SE MO 35° to 38° South IL 34° to 38° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 34° to 38° West KY 36° to 40° NW TN 38° to 40°
Wind direction and speed: North at 10 to 20 mph early becoming north at 3 to 6 mph late.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 34° to 40°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Patchy frost over the northern portions of southeast Missouri and the northern portions of southern Illinois. Other areas, should monitor updates.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:35 PM
Moonset: 6:53 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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May 9, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Saturday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 64° SE MO 56° to 60° South IL 58° to 62° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 62° West KY 60° to 62° NW TN 62° to 64°
Wind direction and speed: North wind 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 55° to 60°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:51 AM
Sunset: 7:52 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 40° to 45° SE MO 38° to 44° South IL 38° to 44° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 44° West KY 40° to 44° NW TN 40° to 45°
Wind direction and speed: Light south wind.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 44°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lower visibility in fog.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:44 PM
Moonset: 7:39 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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May 10, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Partly sunny. Patchy AM fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 68° SE MO 62° to 65° South IL 62° to 65° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 65° West KY 64° to 66° NW TN 66° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest at 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 64°
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? If fog forms, then lower visibility during the AM hours.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:50 AM
Sunset: 7:54 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 42° to 44° SE MO 38° to 44° South IL 38° to 44° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 38° to 44° West KY 40° to 44° NW TN 42° to 45°
Wind direction and speed: West and northwest wind 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 34° to 40°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Patchy fog could lower visibility.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:45 PM
Moonset: 8:31 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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May 11, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Monday Forecast: Partly sunny. Increasing clouds from the west.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 68° SE MO 62° to 65° South IL 62° to 65° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 65° West KY 64° to 66° NW TN 64° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: West and northwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 64°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? If fog forms, then lower visibility during the AM hours.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:49 AM
Sunset: 7:54 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Increasing clouds. A chance of a shower. A thunderstorm is possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 48° SE MO 43° to 46° South IL 43° to 46° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 43° to 46° West KY 43° to 46° NW TN 44° to 48°
Wind direction and speed: Light wind.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 46°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:59 PM
Moonset: 9:27 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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- Scattered wet fields.
- The next widespread rain chance will arrive Thursday night.
- Cooler by the weekend. Patchy frost over our northern counties Friday night. I am monitoring Saturday night. The northern counties of SE MO and northern counties of southern IL would have the highest chance of light frost.
Click to enlarge the graphics.
I am watching Wednesday’s forecast. Perhaps a few showers need to be added.
Click graphics to enlarge them.
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These are dates that may have precipitation. Monitor the trends in the forecast.
Anything past day seven is low confidence.
Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Kentucky
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Tennessee
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Today through May 10th. Lightning is possible Thursday night. No severe storms anticipated through next Monday.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:
Updated May 5, 2020
No major concerns. I am watching the potential of frost Friday night over our northern counties. Northern portions of SE MO and northern portions of south IL.
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Weather Discussion
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- A few light showers today and again tonight. Many areas will remain dry.
- The next highest chance of rain will be Thursday night/Friday morning.
- Colder this weekend.
We had another outbreak of severe weather yesterday and last night. Widespread hail and high winds moved across southern Missouri into northwest Tennessee. Hail reached the size of golf balls! Wind gusts over 80 mph were reported in some towns.
There was extensive damage in portions of New Madrid County.
Thankfully, that has pushed off to the south and east. That leaves us with some clouds today and light showers. Most of the area will remain dry today and tonight. A few spots will pick up less than 0.10″ of rain.
AM satellite shows quite a few clouds across the region.
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Rainfall over the last 24 hours
Click to enlarge.
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Our next chance of showers and thunderstorms will push into the region Thursday night and Friday morning. That should be a widespread rain event. I do not anticipate severe thunderstorms. A few lightning strikes will be possible.
The rain will come to an end as we move through Friday late morning and afternoon. That will leave us with colder temperatures Friday night into the weekend.
A light frost is possible Friday night over our northern counties. That would be northern portions of southeast Missouri and northern portions of southern Illinois. The closer you get to the I64 corridor the higher the chance of patchy frost.
A late-season cold blast for a large chunk of the country.
Let me show you these temperature anomaly maps.
These show you how many degrees below normal temperatures will be each morning. Our normal lows are in the lower 50s.
This coming Saturday
Sunday
Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Saturday
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Elsewhere, monitor updates.
For now, the coldest night appears to be Friday night. Saturday night will be chilly, as well.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
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This animation is the Hrrr model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
No precipitation shows up on the short-range Hrrr.
There could be spotty light showers today and tonight. It wasn’t enough to show up on this model.
This animation is the 3K American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
No precipitation shows up on the short-range NAM 3K.
There could be spotty light showers today and tonight. It wasn’t enough to show up on this model.
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This next animation is the NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the EC Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
This is in Zulu time. 12z = 7 AM. 18z = 1 PM. 00z = 7 PM.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 75 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 53 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers May 5th through May 11th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 55 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.20″ to 1.50″
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This outlook covers May 12th through May 18th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. For example, if your average rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 60 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 2.20″ to 2.80″
This outlook covers May 19th through June 1st
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Precipitation outlook
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LONG RANGE DISCUSSION
Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.
Click to enlarge all of the images below
These graphics are updated Monday through Friday between 8:30 AM and 9:30 AM.
NOTE: These may not be updated on Saturday and Sunday.
Click the image below to enlarge it.
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Summer outlook
Click to enlarge it. Then, you can read it better.
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May temperature departures
Click on the images to enlarge them
May precipitation departures
June temperature departures
Click on the images to enlarge them
Precipitation outlook
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