Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. 

SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.

The LIVE Severe weather blog has been activated for Thursday’s potential severe weather event.
Link: https://wtalk.co/EWDP8CF2

48-hour forecast

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May 4, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  High confidence
Wednesday Forecast:  Intervals of sun and clouds.  A couple of showers and thunderstorms will be possible late in the day across southeast Missouri.  The bulk of the day and region will be dry today.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 20%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~  0% /  the rest of South IL ~  0%  /  West KY ~ 0%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: After 3 PM (MO)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 74°  /  SE MO 68° to 72° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 68° to 72° /  South IL 70° to 74°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74°  /  West KY 72° to 74° /  NW TN 72° to 74°
Winds will be from the: SW 8 to 16 mph. Gusty, at times.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 74°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning (MO)
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8.  Very high.
Sunrise: 5:57 AM
Sunset:  7:48 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast:  Thickening clouds.  A chance of a late night shower or thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 60%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% /  the rest of South IL ~ 40%  /  West KY ~ 40%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40%  /  NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Timing of the rain:  After midnight.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 60° /  SE MO 54° to 56° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 54° to 56° /  South IL 54° to 58° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 56° /  West KY 54° to 56° /  NW TN 56° to 60°
Winds will be from the: Northwest becoming east southeast 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check updates.
Moonrise: 8:17 AM
Moonset: 11:45 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Crescent

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May 5, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  Medium confidence

The LIVE Severe weather blog has been activated for Thursday’s potential severe weather event.
Link: https://wtalk.co/EWDP8CF2
Thursday Forecast:  A chance of showers and thunderstorms.  On and off chances throughout the day.  Some storms could be severe.  There will be a warm front pushing northward through the region.  There should be a wide range of temperatures from north to south.  Cooler far north.  Warmest far south.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 80% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 80%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 70% /  the rest of South IL ~ 70%  /  West KY ~ 70%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 70%  /  NW TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 76° to 80°  /  SE MO 72° to 75° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 70° to 72° /  South IL 74° to 76°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 74° to 76°  /  West KY 74° to 76° /  NW TN 76° to 80°
Winds will be from the:   South southeast 7 to 14 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 73° to 76°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Monitor the risk of severe thunderstorms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates
UV Index: 4.  Moderate.
Sunrise: 5:56 AM
Sunset:  7:48 PM
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Thursday night Forecast:   A chance of showers and thunderstorms.  Some storms could be severe.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 80% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 80%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 80% /  the rest of South IL ~ 80%  /  West KY ~ 80%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 80%  /  NW TN ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation:  Numerous
Timing of the rain:  Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 64° /  SE MO 56° to 58° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 56° to 58° /  South IL 56° to 58° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 56° to 58° /  West KY 56° to 58° /  NW TN 62° to 64°
Winds will be from the: Southwest 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 55° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Monitor the risk of severe thunderstorms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates
Moonrise: 9:04 AM
Moonset:
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Crescent

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May 6, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  High confidence
Friday Forecast:   Intervals of clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 40%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% /  the rest of South IL ~ 60%  /  West KY ~ 60%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 70%  /  NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered to perhaps numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 74°  /  SE MO 70° to 72° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 70° to 72° /  South IL 70° to 72°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 72°  /  West KY 70° to 72° /  NW TN 72° to 74°
Winds will be from the: South southwest 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways. Lighting.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and check the radars.
UV Index: 7.  High.
Sunrise: 5:55 AM
Sunset:  7:49 PM
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Friday night Forecast:   Partly cloudy.  A chance of an evening shower or thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 30%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% /  the rest of South IL ~ 30%  /  West KY ~ 30%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30%  /  NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Before 10 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 58° /  SE MO 52° to 54° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 52° to 54° /  South IL 53° to 56° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 53° to 56° /  West KY 54° to 56° /  NW TN 56° to 58°
Winds will be from the: West northwest 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 56°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check updates
Moonrise: 9:57 AM
Moonset: 12:36 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Crescent

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May 7, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast:   Partly to mostly sunny.  A slight chance of a light shower.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 10% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 10%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% /  the rest of South IL ~ 10%  /  West KY ~ 10%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10%  /  NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 74°  /  SE MO 70° to 74° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 70° to 74° /  South IL 70° to 74°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74°  /  West KY 70° to 74° /  NW TN 70° to 74°
Winds will be from the: Northwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 74°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most.  Isolated wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8.  Very high.
Sunrise: 5:54 AM
Sunset:  7:50 PM
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Saturday night Forecast:   Decreasing clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 52° to 54° /  SE MO 50° to 54° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 50° to 54° /  South IL 52° to 54° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 52° to 54° /  West KY 52° to 54° /  NW TN 52° to 54°
Winds will be from the: East northeast 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 54°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:55 AM
Moonset: 1:20 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Crescent

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May 8, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  High confidence
Sunday Forecast:   Mostly sunny.  Warm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 82°  /  SE MO 76° to 80° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 76° to 80° /  South IL 76° to 80°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 76° to 80°  /  West KY 78° to 80° /  NW TN 78° to 82°
Winds will be from the: East southeast 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 75° to 80°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9.  Very high.
Sunrise: 5:53 AM
Sunset:  7:51 PM
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Sunday night Forecast:  Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 66° /  SE MO 62° to 65° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 62° to 64° /  South IL 62° to 64° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 64° /  West KY 62° to 64° /  NW TN 64° to 66°
Winds will be from the: Southeast 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:55 AM
Moonset: 1:59 AM
The phase of the moon:  First Quarter

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May 9, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  High  confidence
Monday Forecast:   Mostly sunny.  Quite warm and muggy.  Breezy, at times.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 86° to 90°  /  SE MO 86° to 88° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 84° to 88° /  South IL 84° to 88°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 84° to 88°  /  West KY 84° to 88° /  NW TN 84° to 88°
Winds will be from the: South southwest 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 86° to 92°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9.  Very high.
Sunrise: 5:52 AM
Sunset:  7:52 PM
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Monday night Forecast:  Mostly clear.  Mild.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72° /  SE MO 66° to 68° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 64° to 66° /  South IL 64° to 66° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 66° /  West KY 64° to 68° /  NW TN 68° to 72°
Winds will be from the: South 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:57 PM
Moonset:  2:33 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Gibbous

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May 10, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  High  confidence
Tuesday Forecast:   Mostly sunny.  Quite warm and muggy.  Breezy, at times.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 92°  /  SE MO 86° to 88° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 84° to 88° /  South IL 84° to 88°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 84° to 88°  /  West KY 84° to 88° /  NW TN 88° to 82°
Winds will be from the: South southwest 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 86° to 92°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9.  Very high.
Sunrise: 5:51 AM
Sunset:  7:53 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast:  Mostly clear.  Mild.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72° /  SE MO 66° to 68° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 64° to 66° /  South IL 64° to 66° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 66° /  West KY 64° to 68° /  NW TN 68° to 72°
Winds will be from the: South 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:00 PM
Moonset:  3:02 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Gibbous

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** The farming portion of the blog has been moved further down.  Scroll down to the weekly temperature and precipitation outlook.  You will find the farming and long range graphics there. **

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

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Today through May 8th:  A few storms could become severe Thursday and Thursday night.  The primary concern will be damaging wind and hail.  The risk is a bit less than it appeared it would be 24 hours ago.  Mainly because the frontal system continues to slow.  It now appears it won’t arrive in our region until Thursday night.  That would be when the instability levels are lower.

With that said, storms that form Thursday and Thursday night could be locally severe.  Monitor updates.  Monitor the live severe weather blog.

The LIVE Severe weather blog has been activated for Thursday’s potential severe weather event.
Link: https://wtalk.co/EWDP8CF2

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Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

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Forecast Discussion

The LIVE Severe weather blog has been activated for Thursday’s potential severe weather event.
Link: https://wtalk.co/EWDP8CF2

Wednesday and Wednesday night

No significant weather concerns Wednesday.  It will be dry across most the region.  Mild.

During the late afternoon hours, a few showers and thunderstorms will be possible over the Missouri Ozarks and perhaps southeast Missouri.

You can see those on the Hrrr model.  Future-cast radar.

Around 7 PM this evening.

A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday night as our next weather system approaches the region.

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Thursday into Saturday 

Bottom line:

Severe storms are possible Thursday and Thursday night.  There remain questions about the extent of the potential.

Morning cloud cover and precipitation could keep instability levels lower.  That would reduce the risk later in the day.

The arrival time of the front has slowed.  That means instability levels will be lower when it arrives.  That could keep the risk from becoming great.

There are questions about this event.  Thus, the best advice is the monitor updates throughout the day Thursday into the overnight hours.

I will be sending out updates to the Beau Dodson Weather app.  I will keep the severe weather blog updated.

Our next big cold front will push into the region Thursday and Thursday night.

Models continue to slow the fronts arrival time.

At one point, it appeared the front would push through the region Thursday afternoon and early evening.  Over the past 24-hours, the front continues to trend slower.

It now appears the front won’t push across the region until late Thursday night into Friday.  This is when instability levels will be lower.  That is the good news.

Lower instability levels would mean lower severe weather threats.

With that said, we aren’t out of the woods with this system.

A warm front will push northward across the region Thursday and Thursday night.  This warm front will separate warm and moist air to the south from somewhat cooler and drier air to the north.

Storms that form near the warm front could become severe with damaging wind, hail, and even a tornado.  We always have to closely watch warm front storms.  They can quickly become severe under the right conditions.

Let me show you some graphics

This is the NAM model.  Keep in mind, there are many models.  Not all models show the same parameters.  Some show lower numbers.  It is something that I will be monitoring as new data arrives today.  I will be watching for trends in the guidance.

High dew points.  A lot of moisture will pool near the warm front.  Those are 70+ dew points across far southeast Missouri into Kentucky and Tennessee.

You can see the moist air pushing northward.

This morning’s dew points compared to tomorrow afternoon.

This morning

Compared to tomorrow afternoon (purple colors represent muggy air).

As the warm front moves northward, so does the warm/moist air.

Surface based CAPE will be high south of the warm front, as well.

CAPE is basically fuel that thunderstorms tap into.  Look at the higher numbers near the warm front.

Surface based lift index numbers will be high near the warm front, as well.  Quite a bit of unstable air.

The NAM future-cast radar shows a few supercells near the warm front.

Keep in mind, this is just one model.  It is something we will need to monitor moving forward.

The second risk of severe weather will be along the cold front.  That won’t be until late Thursday night.  By that time, CAPE will be less.  CAPE is fuel that storms tap into.  With lower CAPE numbers comes a lower severe weather risk.

The bottom line is that we will have periods of showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday night into Friday.

A few of those storms could be severe Thursday/Thursday night.

The risk appears somewhat lower than it did 24 hours ago.  Remember, it only takes on tornado or one severe thunderstorm to cause problems.  Let’s monitor updates.

I will go ahead and start the severe weather blog.  It will be updated throughout the event.

Showers and thunderstorms will still be with us Friday, but with decreasing activity as we move through the afternoon hours.

Isolated showers are possible Friday night and Saturday.  I would not change my Saturday plans.  Check radars, but overall it should be an okay day.

Rain will totals will continue to vary greatly.  Thunderstorms can always double rain totals compared to neighboring areas.

Expect a widespread 0.5 to 1.0″ of rain between now and Friday night.  Then, there will be some areas that will easily top an inch of rain.  Same as recent events.

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Sunday through Wednesday

Dry conditions are anticipated Sunday through Wednesday.  Some of the guidance indicates a few showers and thunderstorms next Thursday and Friday (long way off for confidence on that).

It is going to quickly warm up.  It is also going to become muggier.  Summer weather.

Expect 70s and 80s Sunday.  Then, expect widespread middle to upper 80s Monday through Thursday.  I can not rule out some 90 degree readings.

Dew points will rise into the muggy 70s next week.  It will feel more like summer than spring.

Dew point is a measure of moisture in the atmosphere.  That is what makes it feel sticky outside.

Monday dew points

Tuesday dew points

Wednesday dew points

.Monday de

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This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1 PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

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This next animation is the GFS American Model.

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Double click the graphics below to enlarge them.

These graphics are usually not updated until after 10 AM

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Double click on images to enlarge them

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 74 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 55 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″

Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.

This outlook covers May 4th through May 10th

Click on the image to expand it.

These are usually updated between 8:30 and 9:30 AM

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Red/orange is below average. Green/blue is above average. Blue is much above average.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 76 degrees

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 58 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″
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This outlook covers May 11th through May 17th

Click on the image to expand it.

 

The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.

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THIS IS UPDATED ON TUESDAY AND FRIDAY

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Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around  81 degrees
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 60 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 2.00″ to 2.40″

This outlook covers May 30th through May 30th

Precipitation outlook

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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

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Live lightning data: Click here.

Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99

Our new Zoom radar with storm chases

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.

College of Dupage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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