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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
The SEVERE WEATHER BLOG has been activated.
Here is the link for the SEVERE WEATHER BLOG. CLICK HERE
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Tuesday to Tuesday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Today, Saturday, Sunday, Monday, and perhaps Tuesday.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Monitor. Some storms could be intense today. Ending this afternoon/evening. I am monitoring Saturday and Sunday.
The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor. Thunderstorms could produce locally heavy rain. Recent heavy rain has caused some streams and rivers to flood. If thunderstorms train over the same areas then some flooding will occur.
4. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? No.
5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? No.
6. Will there be accumulating snow and ice in the forecast? No.
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May 4, 2021
The SEVERE WEATHER BLOG has been activated for the risk of severe thunderstorms Monday night into Tuesday afternoon.
Here is the link for the SEVERE WEATHER BLOG. CLICK HERE
May 4, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of thunderstorms. Storms that form could become severe.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 40% / MO Bootheel ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 76° to 82° / SE MO 66° far north to 76° far south / South IL 70° north to 78° far south / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 78° to 82° / West KY 78° to 82° / NW TN 76° to 82°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest wind 10 to 20 mph. Wind becoming west. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 82°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Severe thunderstorms are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B. Check radars.
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:57 AM
Sunset: 7:48 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Evening thunderstorms are possible. Some storms could be intense.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 30% / MO Bootheel ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 50% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 50% / NW TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous early in the night.
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 55° / SE MO 44° north to 50° south / South IL 45° north to 52° far south / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 52° to 55° / West KY 50° to 55° / NW TN 50° to 54°
Wind direction and speed: North at 6 to 12 mph. Higher gusts possible.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Some storms could be intense.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check radars
Moonrise: 2:46 AM
Moonset: 1:05 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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May 5, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% / MO Bootheel ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 66° / SE MO 62° to 66° / South IL 62° to 66° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 63° to 66° / West KY 63° to 66° / NW TN 64° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: North at 7 to 14 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:56 AM
Sunset: 7:49 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Increasing clouds. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% / MO Bootheel ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 48° / SE MO 42° to 45° / South IL 42° to 45° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 42° to 45° / West KY 42° to 45° / NW TN 58° to 60°
Wind direction and speed: Light wind.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 48°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 3:18 AM
Moonset: 2:09 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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May 6, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Thursday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 30% / MO Bootheel ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the day.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 68° / SE MO 64° to 66° / South IL 64° to 66° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 66° / West KY 64° to 66° / NW TN 64° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: Becoming west at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 5:55 AM
Sunset: 7:50 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Clearing. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% / MO Bootheel ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 48° / SE MO 42° to 45° / South IL 42° to 45° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 42° to 45° / West KY 42° to 45° / NW TN 58° to 60°
Wind direction and speed: North 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 48°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 3:47 AM
Moonset: 3:09 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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May 7, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Friday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% / MO Bootheel ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 68° / SE MO 64° to 66° / South IL 64° to 66° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 66° / West KY 64° to 66° / NW TN 64° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest at 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 5:55 AM
Sunset: 7:50 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A slight chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 30% / MO Bootheel ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 52° / SE MO 46° to 50° / South IL 48° to 52° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 48° to 52° / West KY 48° to 52° / NW TN 50° to 54°
Wind direction and speed: Variable wind direction 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 46° to 52°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Moonrise: 3:47 AM
Moonset: 3:09 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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May 8, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Low confidence
Saturday Forecast: Partly sunny. Scattered thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 30% / MO Bootheel ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Mostly after 10 AM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 74° to 78° / SE MO 74° to 76° / South IL 73° to 76° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 73° to 76° / West KY 74° to 78° / NW TN 74° to 78°
Wind direction and speed: South at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 78°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Heavy downpours.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check updates.
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 5:53 AM
Sunset: 7:52 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 60% / MO Bootheel ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous.
Timing of the rain: Any given point
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 64° / SE MO 60° to 64° / South IL 60° to 64° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 64° / West KY 60° to 64° / NW TN 60° to 64°
Wind direction and speed: South 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Moonrise: 4:38 AM
Moonset: 5:06 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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May 9, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 60% / MO Bootheel ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the day
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 74° to 78° / SE MO 74° to 76° / South IL 73° to 76° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 73° to 76° / West KY 74° to 78° / NW TN 74° to 78°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest at 7 to 14 mph. Gusts to 25 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 78°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check updates.
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 5:52 AM
Sunset: 7:52 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 60% / MO Bootheel ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 64° / SE MO 60° to 64° / South IL 60° to 64° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 64° / West KY 60° to 64° / NW TN 60° to 64°
Wind direction and speed: South 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Moonrise: 5:01 AM
Moonset: 6:03 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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These graphics are changed out between 10:00 AM and 11:00 AM (Monday through Friday only)
Double click on the images to enlarge them.
Double click on the images to enlarge them.
Double click on the images to enlarge them.
Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Kentucky
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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.Tennessee
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Today through May 5th.
The SEVERE WEATHER BLOG
Here is the link for the SEVERE WEATHER BLOG. CLICK HERE
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:
The SEVERE WEATHER BLOG has been activated for the risk of severe thunderstorms Monday night into Tuesday afternoon.
Here is the link for the SEVERE WEATHER BLOG. CLICK HERE
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Weather Discussion
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- Additional thunderstorms today.
- Locally heavy rain.
- Dry tomorrow.
- Monitoring rain chances Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday
For today’s discussion, please see the severe weather blog.
We will have additional thunderstorm chances today. There may be some intense storms. Monitor the severe weather blog.
The primary concern in the long-range will be precipitation chances Thursday into Monday.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
- The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
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.This animation is the 3K NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 75 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 54 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.30″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers May 4th through May 10th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 58 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.50″
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This outlook covers May 11th through May 17th
Click on the image to expand it.
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 61 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 2.50″ to 2.90″
This outlook covers May 18th through May 31st
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Precipitation outlook
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION
Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.
Spring Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
March, April, and May Temperature Outlook
March, April, and May Precipitation Outlook
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April outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Temperature departures
April precipitation outlook
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May outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Temperature outlook
May precipitation outlook
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The preliminary June outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Temperature departures
June precipitation outlook
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Preliminary outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
July Temperature Outlook
July precipitation outlook
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Preliminary outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
August Temperature Outlook
August precipitation outlook
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Summer Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
June, July, and August Temperature Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
June, July, and August Precipitation Outlook
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Great news! The videos are now found in your Weathertalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.
These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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