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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Tuesday Night – A few clouds. Any showers will be ending. Cool. A few showers possible after 5 am over our northern counties.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 40s and lower 50s
Winds: Winds west and northwest winds at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated early. Then scattered after 5 am for the northern counties.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Your Interactive City View Radars: Track the rain
Need a lightning tracker website? Here you go
Wednesday – Some clouds. Mild. Scattered showers possible. Thunderstorms are also possible with small hail and gusty winds.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s
Winds: Southwest winds at 8-16 mph. Winds becoming northwest late.
What is the chance for precipitation? 50%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered. A band of showers along an incoming front.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning possible. Small hail.
Wednesday Night – Becoming mostly clear. Chilly.
Temperatures: Lows in the 44-48 degree range
Winds: Winds north and northwest winds at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated over eastern counties (if anything at all). Ending early.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Most likely none.
Thursday – Mostly sunny. Cool.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 64-68 degree range
Winds: North and northwest at 10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None.
Thursday Night – Mostly clear. Cold.
Temperatures: Lows in the 44-48 degree range
Winds: Winds north and northwest winds at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Friday – Mostly sunny.
Temperatures: High temperatures will be around 70-74
Winds: Northwest at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Friday Night – Mostly clear. Cool.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle 50s
Winds: Winds south at 0-5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Saturday – Mostly sunny. Warm.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s
Winds: Southwest at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Saturday Night – A few clouds. Cool. I can’t rule out some showers and perhaps even thunderstorms along the I64 area.
Temperatures: Lows in the 54-58 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest winds at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%-30% far northern counties.
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Maybe some wet roadways and lightning for our northern counties. Monitor updates for changes.
Sunday – Partly sunny. Isolated afternoon shower or thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s over southeast Missouri, far western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee. Cooler temperatures are possible over parts of southern Illinois and northwest Kentucky. This will depend on cloud cover.
Winds: Southwest at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? None to isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
What impact is expected? Most likely none. Perhaps a few wet roadways and lightning.
Sunday Night – Partly cloudy. A scattered thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 54-58 degree range
Winds: Winds south and southwest winds at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Monday – Partly sunny. Mild. A chance for a thunderstorm.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the middle to upper 70s
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Monday Night – Partly cloudy. A chance for a thunderstorm.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle 60s
Winds: Winds southwest at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Tuesday – Partly sunny and warm. A chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 74-78 degree range
Winds: South winds at 4-8 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-60%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Tuesday Night – Partly cloudy. A chance for a thunderstorm.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower 60s
Winds: Winds southwest at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Wednesday – Partly sunny and warm. A thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s
Winds: South winds at 4-8 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 50%-60%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected?
What impact is expected?
Wednesday Night – Partly cloudy. A thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 50s
Winds: Winds south at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected?
What impact is expected?
Thursday – Partly sunny and warm. A thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 74-78 degree range
Winds: South winds at 4-8 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected?
What impact is expected?
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak.
Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities. Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- Weak disturbance for Wednesday will deliver a few showers and perhaps thunderstorms.
- Calm weather into Saturday
- I continue to monitor Sunday-Tuesday for another system
A few evening wqYmw35c9c
We have a weak system that will pass through our region on Wednesday. Some showers and perhaps even thunderstorms will be possible. The main area of concern will be our eastern counties vs western. Mainly southeast Illinois into northwest Kentucky and the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky. Mostly east vs west. Otherwise, Wednesday will deliver some clouds and sun. Mild temperatures. Not warm and not cold.
Rain chances over southeast Missouri, southwest Illinois, far western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee will be limited. Can’t rule out some showers, but not much is anticipated.
The rest of the week looks great. A little on the cool side for some people’s tastes. But, not too bad. Expect daily highs Thursday through Saturday into the upper 60s to perhaps middle 70s.
A slow warming trend begins over the weekend. And, by Sunday we might touch upper 70s again. Hopefully 80 degrees.
Our next weather maker is scheduled for Sunday night into Tuesday. Hoping most of Sunday will remain dry. Although confidence is a bit lower on that topic. As we move forward I will have a better idea of what to expect.
The GFS actually pops some showers on Saturday night along a warm front. We will have to monitor that part of the forecast. I kept it dry for now.
Let’s enjoy the fairly calm weather, for now. It is spring and spring can be volatile.
Let’s take a look at a few maps
This is the rainfall forecast through Wednesday evening. You can see how the northeastern and eastern counties in our region have at least some chance for light precipitation totals. This would be along an incoming system moving in from the north.
I pulled up the GFS long range rainfall forecast. This takes us well into next week. There will be some shower and thunderstorm chances from Sunday onward. GFS actually develops some rain and storms on Saturday night. But, it is currently an outlier. I will keep an eye on it.
Anyway, here are the projected GFS totals.
The severe weather outlook is quiet. I will keep an eye on Sunday into next week. Still a bit early to know if severe storms will be a concern. It is May, after all. Thus, monitor updates as we move forward. It does not take much to have severe storms in the month of May. As we have witnessed over the past few weeks. We have had several tornadoes in the region from fairly weak weather makers.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Wednesday through Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated. A thunderstorm is possible on Sunday afternoon. Lightning would be the main concern.
Sunday night – Tuesday: Thunderstorms are possible as a new storm system approaches our region. At this time, widespread severe weather is not anticipated. But, monitor updates.
Thursday-Saturday of next week: Perhaps some storms on Thursday. Lower confidence beyond Thursday.
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I updated winds, temperatures, and precipitation chances. Tacked on a longer term forecast, as well. Unsettled next week.
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Main concern in the short term would be a few storms on Wednesday. Mostly our eastern counties. That would be southeast Illinois, northwest Kentucky, and the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky. Small chances elsewhere.
Otherwise, no major concerns through at least Saturday. Wow, on that!
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Rainfall totals on Wednesday will be light. I suppose if a thunderstorm were to develop that someone might pick up 0.10″-0.20″. But, many areas won’t pick up any rainfall at all.
Next decent shot at precipitation will be Sunday through Thursday of next week. Locally heavy rain can’t be ruled out during that time frame.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
