May 31, 2021. Beau’s subscriber’s weather blog update. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome Once subscribed, download the WeatherTalk app in the app store

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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

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Monday to Monday

1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Tonight, Tuesday, Tuesday night, Wednesday, Wednesday night, Thursday, Thursday night, and isolated Friday. Most likely dry Saturday/Sunday (some guidance shows isolated storms).

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Monitor. A few storms could produce 50 mph wind gusts and dime size hail Wednesday and Wednesday evening. Otherwise, the risk of severe weather is low.

The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Unlikely. Thunderstorms could produce some local downpours this week. Odds are that flash flooding won’t be a significant concern. If thunderstorms train over the same areas, then a few spots could have ditches briefly overflow.

4. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? No.

5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? No.

6. Will there be accumulating snow and ice in the forecast? No.

May 31, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Monday’s comfort index is nice. Should be a nice day comfort wise. 100 is nice.

Monday Forecast: Becoming partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / SE MO ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 76° to 80° / SE MO 75° to 80° / South IL 75° to 80° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 75° to 80° / West KY 75° to 80° / NW TN 76° to 80°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 75° to 80°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? N0
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 5:36 AM
Sunset: 8:10 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A few showers may move into southeast Missouri late tonight. Lower chances across the rest of the area.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated over southeast Missouri
Timing of the rain: After midnight
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 60° / SE MO 55° to 60° / South IL 55° to 60° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 55° to 60° / West KY 55° to 60° / NW TN 55° to 60°
Wind direction and speed: East southeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 55° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:43 AM
Moonset: 10:53 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

June 1, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Partly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will be cooler where clouds are thicker and rain develops. Warmer, elsewhere.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / SE MO ~ 70% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / South IL ~ 50% / West KY ~ 50% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. Becoming scattered as you move further east.
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the day
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 74° to 78° / SE MO 68° to 74° / South IL 70° to 75° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 74° to 78° / West KY 74° to 78° / NW TN 75° to 80°
Wind direction and speed: Light east wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 80°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Elsewhere, monitor the radars.
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 5:35 AM
Sunset: 8:09 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 90% / SE MO ~ 90% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 80% / South IL ~ 70% / West KY ~ 70% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 70% / NW TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the night
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 64° / SE MO 60° to 64° / South IL 60° to 64° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 64° / West KY 60° to 64° / NW TN 60° to 64°
Wind direction and speed: East southeast at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and check the weather radars.
Moonrise: 1:17 AM
Moonset: 11:58 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

June 2, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 70% / SE MO ~ 70% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 70% / South IL ~ 70% / West KY ~ 70% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 70% / NW TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the day
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 74° to 78° / SE MO 74° to 78° / South IL 73° to 76° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 74° to 76° / West KY 74° to 78° / NW TN 74° to 78°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 76°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and check the radars.
UV Index: 5. Moderate.
Sunrise: 5:36AM
Sunset: 8:11 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Becoming widely scattered as the night wears. Some clearing west to east overnight.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~40% / SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 50% / South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous. Greater coverage east of the Mississippi River vs west.
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the night
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 62° / SE MO 56° to 60° / South IL 60° to 62° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 62° / West KY 60° to 62° / NW TN 60° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: South at 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 56° to 62°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check the weather radars
Moonrise: 1:50 AM
Moonset: 1:01 PM
The phase of the moon: Last Quarter

June 3, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Thursday Forecast: Intervals of sun and clouds. A chance of a few showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the day
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 76° to 78° / SE MO 74° to 78° / South IL 74° to 78° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 74° to 78° / West KY 74° to 78° / NW TN 75° to 80°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 80°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check the weather radars
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:35
Sunset: 8:13 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Partly cloudy with widely scattered showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~20% / SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the night
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 64° / SE MO 60° to 62° / South IL 60° to 62° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 62° / West KY 60° to 62° / NW TN 60° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: South at 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check the weather radars
Moonrise: 2:17 AM
Moonset: 2:01 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

June 4, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly sunny with a widely scattered morning shower. A thunderstorm possible during the afternoon. Many areas may be dry.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~20% / SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered.
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the day
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 76° to 80° / SE MO 75° to 80° / South IL 75° to 80° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 75° to 80° / West KY 75° to 80° / NW TN 75° to 80°
Wind direction and speed: Light wind 4 to 8 mph. Variable in direction.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 75° to 80°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:35 AM
Sunset: 8:13 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~20% / SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the night
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 64° / SE MO 60° to 62° / South IL 60° to 62° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 62° / West KY 60° to 62° / NW TN 60° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: South at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadway and lightning. Most of the area should be dry.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:42 AM
Moonset: 2:59 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

June 5, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast: Partly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~0% / SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 82° / SE MO 80° to 82° / South IL 80° to 82° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 82° / West KY 80° to 82° / NW TN 80° to 82°
Wind direction and speed: South 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 82°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:35 AM
Sunset: 8:13 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~0% / SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 64° / SE MO 60° to 62° / South IL 60° to 62° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 62° / West KY 60° to 62° / NW TN 60° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: South at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 3:06 AM
Moonset: 3:57 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

June 6, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Partly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~0% / SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 82° / SE MO 80° to 82° / South IL 80° to 82° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 82° / West KY 80° to 82° / NW TN 80° to 82°
Wind direction and speed: South 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 82°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:35 AM
Sunset: 8:14 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~0% / SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 64° / SE MO 60° to 62° / South IL 60° to 62° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 62° / West KY 60° to 62° / NW TN 60° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: South at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 3:30 AM
Moonset: 4:54 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

These graphics are changed out between 10:00 AM and 11:00 AM (Monday through Friday only)

Double click on the images to enlarge them.

Click the images to enlarge them.

THESE WILL BE UPDATED TUESDAY

Graphic-cast

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Illinois

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

Kentucky

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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.Tennessee

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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Today through June 6th: Widespread severe is not anticipated. A few storms could be intense Wednesday afternoon and evening. The primary concern would be strong and gusty wind and dime size hail. Locally heavy rain and lightning.

Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:

Thunderstorm chances will increase Tuesday into Thursday. A few of the thunderstorms could produce locally heavy rain, lightning, and gusty wind.

Weather Discussion

1. Nice today. Milder.
2. Thunderstorm chances increase Tuesday into Thursday.
3. A few remaining showers and thunderstorms Friday.
4. For now, I have Saturday and Sunday dry.

I hope everyone is having a nice weekend. The weather has not been the best with well below average temperatures. Clouds Saturday made it feel a bit raw. There was even some drizzle.

Sunday wasn’t as bad with some sunshine to help the cause.

Today will be nicer than yesterday. We will have some increase in clouds from the west.

Otherwise, sun will rule the day. Warmer temperatures.

A series of upper level disturbances will push across the region Tuesday into Thursday. Each one of these systems will produce shower and thunderstorm activity.

Peak rain chances will arrive Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Generally, 0.30″ to 0.60″ of rain will occur. Then, there will be pockets of an inch or more where thunderstorms repeatedly move over the same area.

At this time, the threat of severe weather appears low. That is the good news. We have experienced record low severe weather this season. We can be thankful for that.

The primary thrust of severe weather in 2021 has been across Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgie. Numerous tornadoes have occurred in those areas.

For the time being, I have left Saturday and Sunday dry. Some of the model guidance does show 10 to 20% thunderstorm chances. I will monitor trends.

Either way, the weekend should have a lot more dry time vs wet.

Let me show you some rain totals from the NWS and various weather models.

There is some disagreement on the placement of the heaviest rain totals. Some of the guidance shows MO/IL and other guidance shows KY/TN.

Hrrr short-range model only goes out to 1 AM Wednesday

NAM 3K model goes out to 1 PM Wednesday

NAM model goes out to 1 PM Thursday

GFS model goes out to 1 PM Friday

The NWS/WPC rainfall outlook for the week

The NWS/WPC also has us in a low-end risk of excessive rainfall. This would only be an issue if thunderstorms train over the same area. This simply means a few spots could pick up enough rain to overflow ditches and briefly cause rises in streams/creeks.

Tuesday outlook

Wednesday outlook

The drought monitor continues to show a ring of drought around our region from the West Coast across the Northern Plains into the Great lakes and then east/southeast from there. So far, this has not had a negative impact on our region.

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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.

What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.

I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.

You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.

This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

.This animation is the higher-resolution 3K NAM American Model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

This next animation is the GFS American Model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

Longer range GFS

This next animation is the EC European Weather model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

Long range

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 80 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 60 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.30″

Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.

This outlook covers June 1st through June 7th

Click on the image to expand it.

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.

Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 83 degrees

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 62 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.50″
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This outlook covers June 8ththrough June 14th

Click on the image to expand it.

The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.

THIS IS UPDATED ON TUESDAY AND FRIDAY

Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average

Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 84 degrees
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 63 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 2.50″ to 2.90″

This outlook covers June 11th through June 24th

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Precipitation outlook

LONG RANGE DISCUSSION

Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.