May 31, 2019: Subscribers update. Your password to the blog is not the same as your www.weathertalk.com password. Email me if you need help beaudodson@usawx.com

Click one of the links below to take you directly to each section.

Do you have questions or suggestions? If so, please email me. Beaudodson@usawx.com

Not receiving app/text messages?

Make sure you have the correct app/text options turned on. Find those under the personal notification settings tab at www.weathertalk.com. Red is off. Green is on.

Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.

The app is under Beau Dodson Weather in the app store.

Apple users click here

Android users click here

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

Friday: Scattered lightning. Mainly this morning.
Saturday: Lightning is possible Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. The main concern will be our northern counties. Northern parts of southeast Missouri and northern parts of southern Illinois. A few storms could be intense.
Sunday: No.
Monday: No.
Tuesday. Lightning is possible Tuesday night.
Wednesday. Lightning is possible Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Wet fields are the main concern.
River flooding continues in many areas. Low-land flooding.

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page

Friday through Sunday

Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning is possible today and then Saturday afternoon/Saturday night.
Is severe weather in the forecast? Isolated. An isolated severe thunderstorm is possible late Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor. A few spots could receive excessive rainfall if thunderstorms train over the same area.

Monday through Thursday

Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning is likely Tuesday night into Thursday. Several rounds of thunderstorms are possible.
Is severe weather in the forecast? Monitor. Some storms could be intense.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor. Locally heavy rain is possible.

Click here

* The Missouri Bootheel includes Dunklin, New Madrid, and Pemiscot Counties
* Northwest Kentucky includes Daviess, Henderson, McLean Union, and Webster Counties

County Maps: Click Here

ATTENTION. A major app update will be released soon. Watch for announcements.

.
Have there been any changes in the forecast over the last 24 hours?

Increased rain chances today

What changes might occur in the forecast?

I am monitoring rain chances Saturday night. A few storms are possible as a fast-moving wave moves past the area. The coverage is questionable. For now, I have isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms. This may need adjusting.

May 31, 2019
Friday’s Forecast: Partly sunny. A few morning showers and thunderstorms. Chances for rain will decrease through the day.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 84° SE MO 80° to 84° South IL 80° to 84° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 84° West KY 80° to 84° NW TN 80° to 84°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest wind at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 85°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 20% Southeast MO 30% IL 40% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40% Western KY 30% NW TN 20%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few lightning strikes. Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
UV Index: 7 to 8 High to very high
Sunrise: 5:37 AM
.
Friday night Forecast: Becoming mostly clear. Just a slight chance for a thunderstorm.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 64° SE MO 58° to 62° South IL 60° to 62° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 62° West KY 60° to 64° NW TN 60° to 65°
Wind direction and speed: North and northwest wind at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 56° to 60°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 10% Southeast MO 10% IL 10% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 10% Western KY 10% NW TN 10%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 8:09 PM
Moonrise: 3:36 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
Moonset: 4:23 PM

June 1, 2019
Saturday’s Forecast: Mostly sunny with some cumulus clouds developing. Warm. A little humid but not as bad as earlier this week. I will be monitoring our northern counties for a few thunderstorms. Thunderstorms that form could be intense.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 86° SE MO 84° to 86° South IL 84° to 86° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 84° to 86° West KY 84° to 86° NW TN 84° to 86°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 84° to 88°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 20% Southeast MO 30% IL 30% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Late in the day widely scattered over our northern counties
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most of the day. Late in the day lightning, heavy rain, and gusty winds from a few thunderstorms. That would mainly be northern parts of southeast Missouri and northern parts of southern Illinois.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars after 3 PM
UV Index: 7 to 8 High to very high
Sunrise: 5:36 AM
.
Saturday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A few thunderstorms are possible. A few thunderstorms could be intense (mainly over SE MO and southern IL). Decreasing chances as you travel southward.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (50% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 66° SE MO 63° to 66° South IL 62° to 64° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 64° West KY 64° to 66° NW TN 64° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest and west at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 66°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 30% Southeast MO 50% IL 50% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40% Western KY 30% NW TN 30%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered (mainly over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois). How far south they travel remains a question.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning. Wet roadways. Monitor updates. A few storms could be intense over our northern counties.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunset: 8:10 PM
Moonrise: 4:38 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
Moonset: 6:27 PM

June 2, 2019.
Sunday’s Forecast: Mostly sunny with some cumulus clouds developing. A slight chance of a shower.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 84° SE MO 78° to 82° South IL 78° to 82° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 82° West KY 82° to 84° NW TN 82° to 84°
Wind direction and speed: North at 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 76° to 82°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 10% Southeast MO 10% IL 10% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 10% Western KY 20% NW TN 10%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None to isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 7 to 8 High to very high
Sunrise: 5:35 AM
.
Sunday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Patchy fog. Cooler.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 58° SE MO 54° to 58° South IL 52° to 54° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 58° West KY 54° to 56° NW TN 60° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: North at 7
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 56°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Patchy fog could lower visibility.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 8:11 PM
Moonrise: 5:13 AM
The phase of the moon: New
Moonset: 7:31 PM

Tuesday: Medium confidence. Partly cloudy. A chance of thunderstorms Tuesday night. High in the lower 80s. Lows in the middle 60s. South and southwest wind at 7 to 14 mph.
.
.
Wednesday: Low confidence. Partly sunny. A 30% chance of thunderstorms during the day and night. These numbers will likely need to be adjusted. Highs in the lower 80s. Lows in the lower 60s. South and southwest wind at 7 to 14 mph.
.
Thursday: Low confidence. Partly sunny. A 30% chance of thunderstorms during the day and night. These numbers will likely need to be adjusted. High in the lower 80s. Lows in the middle 60s. South and southwest wind at 7 to 14 mph.

.
Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.

Click to enlarge

Wind forecast

Click the graphic to expand it.

.
Graphic-cast

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page

** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

Missouri

Illinois

** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

Kentucky

** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

Tennessee

** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

.Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page

The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
.

Friday through Thursday: Isolated lightning this morning. I am monitoring the risk of lightning late Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. The best chance of locally intense thunderstorms Saturday night will be from Perryville, Missouri, northward. That would then also include Randolph, Perry, Jefferson, and areas north and west of there in southern Illinois. South of that line the chances should not be as great. Monitor updates. Sometimes these thunderstorm complexes last longer than anticipated. I will be monitoring these storms for high winds and hail.

Thunderstorms are possible Tuesday night through Thursday. Some of the storms could produce frequent lightning, heavy rain, and gusty winds. We will need to monitor the severe weather risk.

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page

Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

Light green is not assigned a number. Light green is where storms may occur but should be below severe levels.

A severe storm is one that produces 60 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado. One or more of those is defined as a severe thunderstorm.

The black outline is our local area.

Tomorrow’s outlook.

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk. Light green is not assigned a number.

Be sure and have WeatherOne turned on in your WeatherTalk accounts. That is the one for tornadoes, severe storms, and winter storms.

Log into your www.weathertalk.com

Click the personal notification settings tab.

Turn on WeatherOne. Green is on. Red is off.

Here is the latest graphic from the WPC/NOAA.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
.

48-hour precipitation outlook.
.
.

.
72-hour precipitation outlook.
.

Days one through seven added together. Seven-day rainfall totals.

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page

Cooler.
Monitoring thunderstorm chances late Saturday afternoon and evening.
Next weeks weather.

.
Current conditions.

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page

Weather

.I had to add a few showers and storms to the morning forecast. The wave of low pressure is slower in departing.

We will have a mix of sun and clouds today.

The next weather-maker is already causing forecast headaches. It will arrive late Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.

A band of showers and intense thunderstorms is forecast to push from north to south across Missouri and Illinois. How far south it survives is the main topic of concern.

It appears that the northern half of the region stands the best chance of showers and thunderstorms. That would be from Bollinger County, Missouri east to Vienna, Illinois, and then northeast towards Owensboro, Kentucky.

Whether these storms make it further south is questionable.

The NAM shows this nicely. This is a model. This particular model shows the heaviest potential north vs south. Thunderstorms weakening as they move south.

I would not cancel any weekend plans, but I would monitor updates. There could be a period of precipitation late Saturday into Saturday night.

Sunday should be mostly dry. I can’t rule out an isolated shower. For the most part, it appears dry.

Temperatures and humidity levels will be nicer over the next few days. You should feel a difference in the atmosphere.

It will be warm on Saturday but then we drop a few degrees on Sunday. All in all, not a bad forecast.

A series of disturbances will push into the region next Tuesday through Saturday. These will bring increasing chances of showers and heavy rain.

PWAT values take off like a rocket next week. This is a signal for heavy rain.

It is MCS season. These large thunderstorm complexes usually move around the edge of the heat ridge. We may be in the ring next week.

Want to learn more about MCS’s? Click here.

Where storms occur they will produce frequent lightning, heavy rain, and occasionally severe weather.

Monitor updates concerning next weeks weather forecast. It is a bit soon to know exactly where these systems will track. We are in the running.

Not good news on the PWAT front. Very high PWAT values return later next week into the following. If true, then heavy rain will occur in the Missouri, Ohio, and Mississippi River Valleys. Not what we need.

These are large numbers. Well above normal.

I hope this is wrong. MCS season is here and this would mean multiple rounds of storms.

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page

Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

Look for continuity among the models. The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast.

Here is the lower resolution NAM model and then the higher resolution NAM 3K below it.

Timestamp upper left.

Click the animations to expand them.

Here is the Hrrr model future-cast radar

Here is the SPC WRF model.

Click the animations to enlarge them.

These maps update several times a day. Occasionally, in between updates, you may see a duplicate day or one out of sync.

Forty-eight-hour temperature outlook.

*****

VIDEO UPDATES

These are bonus videos and maps for subscribers. I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. I pay them to help with videos.

The Ohio and Missouri Valley videos cover most of our area. They do not have a specific Tennessee Valley forecast but they may add one in the future.

The long-range video is a bit technical. Over time, you can learn a lot about meteorology from the long range video.

NOTE: These may not be updated on Saturday and Sunday.

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page

These are bonus videos for subscribers.

I pay BAMwx to help with videos.

They do not currently have a Kentucky/Tennessee specific video.

The Ohio Valley video does capture our region.

.

Ohio Valley video

This video is a bit more meteorologically technical. An in-depth discussion about the coming weeks.

Long Range Video

The Missouri Valley

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page
.

I bring the following long-range outlooks from the BAMwx team. They are excellent long-range forecasters. These are more detailed than the images above.

Remember, long-range outlooks are always going to be a lower confidence level than short-term forecasts.

Long-range forecasting is not an exact science. There are many variables that determine the eventual outcome of a long-range forecast.

Key Points:

Heavy rainfall over the last 24 hours was focused in central and eastern Illinois, north-central Indiana, and parts of eastern Ohio as well as a narrow band on the Nebraska/ Iowa border.
Cooler risk and below normal growing degree days are expected in the eastern and central Ag Belt as the MJO progresses from phase 2 to 3 in the week 1 period.
A slow progression through MJO phase 3 in the week 2 period will lead to increase the risk for continued below average temperatures and growing degree days in the Week 2 period.
If the MJO can make it to phase 4, there can be a warmer risk in mid-June, something to watch at this time.
This pattern sets up the eastern and central Ag Belt for above average precipitation risk in the Week 1 period as the northern Plains continue to trend drier.
We caution against the drier trends in the eastern Ag Belt shown by the models. The likely slow progression through phase 3 will lead to widespread above-average precipitation across the Ag Belt including these regions.
Overall, the EPS solution is favored over the GEFS as it has a better grasp of the MJO progression.
Newest European weeklies suggest no major heat waves, below normal growing degree days, and continued above average precipitation risk across the Ag Belt for the month of June. The exception is the northern half of the northern Plains which will see a drier and warmer pattern.

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page

Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 80 degrees.

Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 60 degrees.

Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.00″

Yellow and orange are above normal. Red is much above normal. Light blue and blue is below normal. Green to purple is much below normal.

This outlook covers May 31st through June 6th

.
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. Brown is below normal. Green is above normal. Blue is much above normal.

.
Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal

Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 83 degrees

Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 61 degrees

Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.00″
.
This outlook covers June 7th through June 13th

.
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.
.

.
Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal

.
Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 82 degrees
Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 60 degrees

Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.70″ to 2.40″
.
This outlook covers June 7th through June 20th

.
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 10%, then that would mean 0.10″ of rain is anticipated.
.

Click here to go to the top of the page

.
Outlook definitions
EC= Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal
.

Euro is a model.

Blue is below normal temps. Yellow/orange are above normal temps.

.
June temperature outlook

June precipitation outlook

.
July temperature outlook

.
July precipitation outlook

August temperature outlook

August precipitation outlook

.
Preliminary summer outlook

Click here to go to the top of the page

Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.

You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

Live lightning data: Click here.

Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.

College of Dupage satellites. Click here

.

Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

Did you know that you can find me on Twitter? Click here to view my Twitter weather account.

Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied the weather in our region since the late 1970s. I have 40 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.

My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and a Bachelor of Science (BS).

I am an NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County rescue squad. When asked, I assist Ballard and Massac Counties, as well.

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory and WeatherTalk LLC.

There is a lot of noise on the internet. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

Communicate in simple terms
To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.

I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

A new weather podcast is now available! Weather Geeks (which you might remember is on The Weather Channel each Sunday)

To learn more visit their website. Click here.

Click here to go to the top of the page

.
WeatherBrains Episode 697
.
Tonight’s Guest WeatherBrain is the Chief Meteorologist for Midland Radio Company and past President of the National Weather Association. Bruce Thomas, welcome to the show!Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like: