Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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Click the subscribe button (it is a free subscribe button), and it will alert you when I go live.  I will also send out alerts to the app when I go live for an event.

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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️

May 30th through June 5th

Current risk:  MONITOR.

Current confidence level: Medium confidence in the forecast.

Comment:  I am monitoring the middle of next week.  A cold front will push into the region with thunderstorms.  Some of the storms could be severe.  Monitor updates.

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Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast?  YES.  There is a slight chance of isolated lightning on Saturday, Sunday, and Tuesday.  A higher chance of lightning arrives on Wednesday and Thursday.  I will monitor next Friday and Saturday

2.  Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast?  POSSIBLE.  I am monitoring next Wednesday and Thursday.

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? ISOLATED.  Locally heavy thunderstorms are expected next Wednesday and Thursday, which could cause isolated issues.  Widespread flash flooding is not anticipated.

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph?  NO.   

5. Will temperatures rise above 90 degrees?  NOT AT THIS TIME.    

6. Will the heat index rise above 100 degrees? NOT AT THIS TIME.    

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A quick forecast glance.  Your 48-hour forecast Graphics

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Forecast discussion.    

•   A few showers today.
•   An isolated thunderstorm will be possible on Saturday and Sunday.  Most areas will remain dry.
•   Warmer tomorrow into next week.
•   Hazy sunshine this weekend, because of wildfires in Canada.
•   Another cold front is expected to arrive around the middle of next week.  Some of the storms could be intense.

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Good morning, everyone

Numerous showers and thunderstorms moved across the region last night.  We did have a low-end severe weather risk, but no warnings were issued.

Here is what the radar looked like at 6:00 a.m.  You can see the bulk of the system pulling off to our east.

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Tornado warnings are being issued this morning just to our east.

The system is pulling away from the region, as of this writing (5 a.m.).

A few showers are expected to remain in the region today, mainly over southern Illinois and western Kentucky.  The good news is that the bulk of the system has pushed off to our east.

Temperatures are expected to begin warming tomorrow and Sunday.  Highs in the eighties will return to the region.  It will feel like late May/early June.  Keep in mind, average highs are around 82 degrees.  See the temperature maps below.

These warm temperatures are expected to continue into next week.

I can’t rule out an isolated thunderstorm tomorrow and Sunday, mainly over southern Illinois and western Kentucky.  Odds are, your location will remain dry.  The chance of a thunderstorm is around 10% to 20%.  Isolated.

I know farmers need some dry weather.  That has been hard to come by this year.

Monday and Tuesday are expected to be warm and dry.

Hazy sky conditions?  That is a possibility.

Wildfires are once again out of control in Canada.   This is causing copious amounts of smoke to pour into the United States.

This was Manitoba, Canada, on Thursday.  Incredible amount of smoke.

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Some of this smoke is anticipated to move into our region over the weekend.  If it reaches the surface, then you will be able to smell burnt wood.

This has occurred over the past few years due to changing climate conditions.

Seems this is becoming the new norm.

This will cause what would be sunny conditions on Saturday and Sunday to be hazy sunshine.

Here is the smoke animation forecast.

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Our next storm system will arrive late Tuesday night and Wednesday.

A stronger cold front will push towards the region on Wednesday and Thursday.  It is possible the cold front stalls over our area and washes out.

If the stalls, then shower and thunderstorm chances will continue beyond Thursday.  That portion of the forecast will need to be monitored.

Some of the thunderstorms are expected to be intense on Wednesday and Thursday.  I will monitor the risk of severe weather.  The atmosphere will likely be unstable.

If you have outdoor plans for the middle of next week, then monitor the updated forecasts.

There are concerns about the next two weeks on the GFS model.  It is very active.  Not the best news for those wanting dry conditions.

The EC model is busy, but not as busy as the GFS.  The GFS is essentially a series of systems.  Starting towards the middle of next week and then continuing into the following week.  I will be monitoring this.

Locally heavy rain and severe weather would be a concern.

Our severe weather season typically peaks in May but continues into June.  July and August usually are our “quieter” months when it comes to severe storms.

It will finally warm up with temperatures moving above average this weekend into next week.

The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu.  12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

GFS model.  This is for next week’s system.

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EC model.  This is for next week’s system.

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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 82 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 61 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.40″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 83 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 62 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.20″ to 1.50″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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** NEW SERVICE **  I have partnered with WeatherCall to bring you an added layer of protection.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription.  This does NOTreplace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.

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I use it myself. I encourage everyone to have 3 to 5 ways of receiving their severe weather information. All sources can fail, and the more sources you have, the better prepared you will be in the event of severe weather warnings.

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WeatherCall will call your cell phone or home number if your home is under a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning.  It only calls you ifyour home is inside the warning box/polygon. If you are outside the warning box/polygon it will not disturb you.

Here is a video with more information and a demonstration of how it works.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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