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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary quite a bit across the region. These are the averages.
The rest of today and tonight – Mostly sunny to partly cloudy with warm temperatures. Evening temperatures in the 70’s and falling into the 50’s by Sunday morning. Light winds.
Sunday – Mostly sunny with just some patchy cumulus clouds possible. Warmer. Temperatures in the upper 70’s to around 80 degrees. Winds South/southwest at 10-15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No reason to cancel plans
Sunday night – Partly cloudy. Lows in the 50’s. South/southwest winds at 10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No reason to cancel plans
Monday – Partly cloudy and warm. High temperatures will be in the upper 70’s to around 80 degrees. Winds South/southwest at 10-15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No reason to cancel plans
Monday night – Mostly clear sky conditions. Mild. Lows in the upper 50’s to lower 60’s. Southwest winds at 10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No reason to cancel plans
Tuesday – Partly cloudy and warm. A 20% chance for a shower. High temperatures will be in the upper 70’s and lower 80’s. Winds southerly at 10-15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No reason to cancel plans
Sunrise and Sunset Times – Click Here
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. A beautiful Saturday will lead to a beautiful Sunday!
2. Warm weather will last through the upcoming week
3. Rain chances towards the end of the new work week?
For those who have lived in our region for many years I don’t have to tell you that this is very nice weather for early May. Typically I am dealing with severe thunderstorms and stormy weather. But, the last month or so has been fairly quiet across the United States. There have been a couple of severe weather episodes, but nothing like we typically experience. Let’s hope the good times keep on rolling.
We normally experience our peak severe weather reports in May and early June. We don’t have too many more weeks to go. Then we can settle into the summer. But, not there just yet.
The pattern for the coming days will mostly be warm and rain free. The models are spitting out a shower or two on Sunday night and again on Tuesday. Not sure I am ready to bank on either happening. I will keep an eye on the model trends. There are some very weak disturbances that move through our region between now and Wednesday night. Very weak.
For now we have a GREAT 24 hours ahead of us. Mostly sunny sky conditions for Sunday will help warm temperatures into the upper 70’s and lower 80’s. A few patches of cumulus clouds are possible from time to time. But, nothing major and certainly nothing that will ruin the day.
How dual-pol radar is changing the way we view storms. Nice article on the new radar that I am using to monitor thunderstorms.
Story – click here
I suspect the warm weather will continue right on into the new work week. A good chance of rain returns towards the end of the week and into next weekend. See the extended discussion for more details on that part of the forecast.
See the extended forecast below for more information on the long range outlook.
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Mo significant changes. I did not the EC model attempted to paint a few showers on Sunday night. I will keep an eye on trends.
No major concerns. Perhaps some sunscreen on Sunday as temperatures may approach 80 degrees.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
The wild card tells you where the uncertainties are in the forecast
Wild card in this forecast – the wild card in this forecast will be high temperatures on Sunday. Appears some places will top 80 degrees! I hear a collective WOOHOO from the warm weather fans.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level is ZERO
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Sunday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe Weather Is Not Anticipated
Monday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe Weather Is Not Anticipated
Tuesday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe Weather Is Not Anticipated
Wednesday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe Weather Is Not Anticipated
Thursday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe Weather Is Not Anticipated
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
No significant precipitation over the region through the weekend.
This section of the blog is speculative forecast information. Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation. Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.
Highlights:
1. Warm weather will continue into at least Friday
2. Weather becomes a bit more unsettled towards the end of the week.
3. Wet next weekend?
Our first full week of May will bring warm temperatures. Highs each day will range from the upper 70’s to lower 80’s. Not bad for early May!
A frontal system will approach the region by Thursday and Friday. If this occurs then showers and thunderstorm chances will be on the increase. Some of the data indicates locally heavy rain by next weekend. Still several days to monitor this part of the forecast. But, keep this in mind if you are making plans for late next week and weekend.
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Please visit your local National Weather Service Office by clicking here. The National Weather Service Office, for our region, is located in Paducah, Kentucky. They have a lot of maps and information on their site. Local people…local forecasters who care about our region.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
This blog was inspired by ABC 33/40’s Alabama Weather Blog – view their blog
Current tower cam view from the Weather Observatory- Click here for all cameras.
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
The Weather Observatory
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
WSIL TV 3 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Illinois Road Conditions
Marion, Illinois
WPSD TV 6 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Kentucky Road Conditions & Kentucky Highway and Interstate Cameras
Downtown Paducah, Kentucky
Benton, Kentucky Tower Camera – Click here for full view
Benton, Kentucky
I24 Paducah, Kentucky
I24 Mile Point 9 – Paducah, KY
I24 – Mile Point 3 Paducah, Kentucky
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
