Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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I have some question-and-answer threads over on the Facebook page.  Link to those threads CLICK HERE

Or email me at beaudodsonweather@gmail.com

I am going to start going live during events.

I have a live stream running now (I am learning how to use the software).

Check it out here https://www.youtube.com/user/beaudodson

Click the subscribe button (it is a free subscribe button), and it will alert you when I go live.  I will also send out alerts to the app when I go live for an event.

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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️

May 29th through June 4th

Current risk:  ISOLATED RISK.

Current confidence level: Medium confidence in the forecast.

Comment:  There is a low risk of a tornado late Thursday afternoon into the evening hours.  For now, this dark green zone is the area of concern.  I will also monitor next Wednesday and Thursday.

Monitor updates in case adjustments are made.

This is the severe weather outlook for this afternoon and tonight.

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Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast?  YES.  There will be scattered lightning this afternoon and tonight.  An isolated chance of lightning Friday through Tuesday.   A chance of lightning on Wednesday and Thursday.

2.  Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast?  POSSIBLE.  A few storms could be severe this afternoon and tonight.  Mainly this evening/early night.  I am monitoring next Wednesday and Thursday for additional threats.

Here is the current Storm Prediction Center’s Thursday severe weather outlook (This afternoon and tonight).

The light green zone is where thunderstorms are possible, but are expected to remain below severe levels.

The dark green is a marginal (level one) risk of severe weather.

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3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? ISOLATED.  A few of the storms on Thursday afternoon and evening could produce torrential downpours.  Isolated water issues are possible.    I will monitor the middle of next week.

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph?  NO.   

5. Will temperatures rise above 90 degrees?  NOT AT THIS TIME.   Temperatures could rise well into the eighties next week. Not quite sure if we go above 90 degrees.

6. Will the heat index rise above 100 degrees? NOT AT THIS TIME.    

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A quick forecast glance.  Your 48-hour forecast Graphics

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Forecast discussion.    

•   I am monitoring thunderstorm chances later today and tonight.
•   A few storms could be severe this evening/tonight.
•   Numerous showers and thunderstorms are anticipated late this afternoon and especially tonight.  Some downpours.
•   Above-average temperatures will return this weekend and continue into next week.
•   Isolated thunderstorm chances this weekend into early next week.
•   A stronger cold front is expected towards the middle of next week, bringing more thunderstorms.

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Good morning, everyone

We’re not quite finished with the rain yet.

This system has slowly been ramping up.  A few days ago, it did not look like a significant system.  With time, however, it has trended stronger.

Our next system is approaching from western Missouri.  It has slowed by about three to four hours.  That means the bulk of the showers and thunderstorms won’t arrive until late this afternoon and evening.  Then, into tonight.

Peak rain coverage will arrive tonight.  See the future-cast radars below.

A few of the thunderstorms could trigger a severe thunderstorm warning.  There is also a brief isolated tornado risk.

This does not appear to be a big severe weather outbreak.  A couple of storms could produce high wind gusts and nickel-sized hail.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed our region in a level one severe risk.  That is the lowest on their scale.

I will send out app alerts if severe weather develops.  I will send out a few updates today, as well.

The primary time frame of concern will be 4 PM through 12 AM.

The storms will first arrive over southeast Missouri.  They will spread eastward with time.

Then, showers and thunderstorms will form overhead tonight, as an area of low pressure develops near our region.  This will produce lift in the atmosphere.

Rainfall amounts will vary greatly, as is typically the case during the spring months.  Most locations will pick up 0.30″ to 0.60″.  Then, there will be pockets of greater than one inch.  In the heaviest storms, two inches of rain could fall.

Here is the official rainfall outlook.  The heavier amounts will require a few storms to train over the same area.  This is the general idea.

Double-click this image to enlarge it.

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Not what farmers want to hear.  Let’s hope for the lower amounts.

A few showers and thunderstorms will linger into Friday morning.

Mostly dry conditions Friday afternoon through Tuesday.  I have isolated thunderstorms in the forecast each afternoon and evening, mainly during the hottest part of the day.

I capped the chances at 10% to 20%.  Sort of a summer pattern.  Most areas will remain dry Saturday into Tuesday.

It will finally warm up with temperatures moving above average this weekend into next week.

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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu.  12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

Hrr model.

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Here is the RRFS model

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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu.  12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

NAM 3k Model

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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 82 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 61 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.40″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 83 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 62 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.20″ to 1.50″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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** NEW SERVICE **  I have partnered with WeatherCall to bring you an added layer of protection.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription.  This does NOTreplace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.

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I use it myself. I encourage everyone to have 3 to 5 ways of receiving their severe weather information. All sources can fail, and the more sources you have, the better prepared you will be in the event of severe weather warnings.

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WeatherCall will call your cell phone or home number if your home is under a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning.  It only calls you ifyour home is inside the warning box/polygon. If you are outside the warning box/polygon it will not disturb you.

Here is a video with more information and a demonstration of how it works.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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