Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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I have some question-and-answer threads over on the Facebook page.  Link to those threads CLICK HERE

Or email me at beaudodsonweather@gmail.com

I am going to start going live during events.

I have a live stream running now (I am learning how to use the software).

Check it out here https://www.youtube.com/user/beaudodson

Click the subscribe button (it is a free subscribe button), and it will alert you when I go live.  I will also send out alerts to the app when I go live for an event.

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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️

May 28th through June 3rd

Current risk:  Monitor

Current confidence level: Medium confidence in the forecast.

Comment:  There is a low risk of a tornado on Thursday afternoon and evening.  For now, this green zone is the area of concern.

Monitor updates in case adjustments are made.

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Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast?  YES.  There is a slight chance of lightning this morning over western Kentucky.  There is a chance of lightning on Thursday and Thursday night.  An isolated chance on Friday.  A slight chance on Sunday and Tuesday.

2.  Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast?  MONITOR.  A few storms could be severe on Thursday afternoon and evening.

Here is the current Storm Prediction Center’s Thursday severe weather outlook.

The light green zone is where thunderstorms are possible, but are expected to remain below severe levels.

The dark green is a marginal (level one) risk of severe weather.

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? NO.    

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph?  NO.   

5. Will temperatures rise above 90 degrees?  NOT AT THIS TIME.   

6. Will the heat index rise above 100 degrees? NOT AT THIS TIME.    

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A quick forecast glance.  Your 48-hour forecast Graphics

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Forecast discussion.    

•   A few showers this morning.  See the live radars at the bottom of the page.
•   Mild temperatures into Friday.  Near to below average.
•   Numerous showers and thunderstorms are anticipated for Thursday afternoon and evening.
•   Above-average temperatures are expected to return this weekend and continue into next week.
•   Drier conditions this weekend into much of next week.

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Good morning, everyone

We did have some showers move through the region overnight.  A few of those are lingering on radar, as of 5 am.

It has been challenging to forecast these showers over the past week.  Guidance has not been handled very well beyond the 12-hour mark.  My forecast scores have been lower than usual because of this.

Don’t forget, you can sign up for my daily forecast.  It goes to the app between 1:00 p.m. and 4:00 p.m.  Log in to www.weathertalk.com and go to the notification settings (middle) button/tab.  Click on number three.  Green is on.  Red is off.

Here was the 5 am radar.  A lot of the light blue around the radar site is ground clutter.  You can see the showers in dark green and yellow.

This is moving east.  Once this moves out, the region will be dry the rest of the day.  Dry tonight, as well.

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Temperatures are expected to remain below average today through Friday, with highs mainly in the seventies.

The average high for late May is around 82 degrees.

Don’t worry, we will eventually warm up.  I chose Paducah for this graphic.  This is the EC model’s high and low temperature forecast for the coming days.

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Numerous showers and thunderstorms are likely to return to the area by Thursday afternoon and evening.  A few of the thunderstorms could be severe.  The severe threat is low.  I will monitor it, as always.

Here are the rain probabilities for that event.

Thursday rain probabilities.  They will increase from the west during the afternoon and evening hours.

Thursday night rain probabilities

A couple of showers may linger into Friday.

Friday night through Sunday morning is forecast to be dry.

Again, temperatures are expected to remain below average through Friday night.

Temperatures will pop above average by Saturday, Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday.

Saturday highs

Sunday highs

Monday highs

Tuesday highs

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Rain chances are expected to be 20% or below on Sunday.  I am watching Tuesday and Wednesday of next week for isolated thunderstorms.

We need the region to dry out.  Farmers are behind in many areas.  Let’s hope that Saturday and much of next week are drier than recent weeks.

I will keep an eye on it.  It does not take much in the way of lift to produce a few thunderstorms in June.  The atmosphere is usually unstable.

The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu.  12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

NAM 3K model.

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Here is the Hrrr model

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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 82 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 61 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.40″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 83 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 62 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.20″ to 1.50″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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** NEW SERVICE **  I have partnered with WeatherCall to bring you an added layer of protection.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription.  This does NOTreplace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.

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I use it myself. I encourage everyone to have 3 to 5 ways of receiving their severe weather information. All sources can fail, and the more sources you have, the better prepared you will be in the event of severe weather warnings.

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WeatherCall will call your cell phone or home number if your home is under a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning.  It only calls you ifyour home is inside the warning box/polygon. If you are outside the warning box/polygon it will not disturb you.

Here is a video with more information and a demonstration of how it works.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

If the radar is not working, then email me: Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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We do have some sponsors!  Check them out.

Roof damage from recent storms?  Link – Click here

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⛈️ Roof or gutter damage from recent storms? Today’s weather is sponsored by Integrity Roofing. Check out their website at this link https://www.ourintegritymatters.com/