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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
The pattern over the coming days will bring a few thunderstorms. This is a summer type pattern. I can’t rule out a storm from time to time. I will try to give you the % number…the best I can.
Thursday – Partly sunny. Warm and humid. A chance for a thunderstorm. Highs in the 80’s. Generally winds will be southerly at 5-10 mph. Gusts to 15 mph. Chance for precipitation at any given location is 30%
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would not cancel any plans. Can’t rule out a few storms.
Morning School Bus Stop Weather – Partly sunny. A thunderstorm possible over southeast Missouri. Warm. Morning temperatures in the lower 70’s.
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Afternoon School Bus Stop Weather – Partly sunny. A chance for a thunderstorm. Warm and muggy. Temperatures in the afternoon will be in the 80’s
Thursday night – Partly cloudy. Warm and humid. Lows in the 70’s. South/southeast winds at 5-10 mph. Chance for precipitation at any given location is 10%
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would not cancel any plans. Can’t rule out a few storms.
Friday – Partly sunny warm and humid. Highs in the 80’s. Southerly winds at 5-15 mph. Chance for precipitation at any given location is 30%
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would not cancel any plans. Can’t rule out a few storms.
Friday night – Increasing clouds with a chance for showers and thunderstorms. Lows around 70 degrees with southerly winds at 10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B in case it rains
Saturday – Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs around 82 degrees with southerly winds at 10-15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B in case it rains on your outdoor events.
Sunrise and Sunset Times – Click Here
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Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. A warm and muggy week ahead of us. Summer type pattern for a few days.
2. Daily chance for a few scattered pop-up thunderstorms
3. Another cold front by the weekend with some chances for thunderstorms.
How about a weather photo to start the day off! This is from the Wunderground web-site
Nice sunset image from northern Illinois
Parts of the region picked up some heavy storms on Wednesday morning and early afternoon. A disturbance moved out of Missouri into Illinois and Kentucky. The coverage of the precipitation was fairly widespread.
The weather pattern for Thursday into Friday will be warm and humid. There will be some disturbances moving through the region. This could again pop a few showers and locally heavy thunderstorms.
A more widespread rain and storm event is forecast for the weekend as a cold front passes through the region. Once again have a plan B for the weekend. See the extended discussion further down in the blog.
We could use some dry weather. Let’s look at some moisture charts
Crop Moisture Index. Just looks at Oklahoma and Texas. VERY wet. Extreme. But, norms are made up of extremes. What is happening in Oklahoma and Texas has happened before. Drought to floods. Not uncommon.
Soil capacity. Wet over much of our region.
The Palmer Drought Index shows drought is mostly over California. This is not an extreme map for the United States. Typically we see a lot more drought on this map.
Chance for precipitation Wednesday night through Friday will be in the 30%-40% range. If one of the disturbances is stronger than forecast then there is always a possibility of a line of storms forming (like what happened late Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning). If that happens then the % chance will need to be increased.
High temperatures
Thursday High Temperatures
Friday High Temperatures
Saturday High Temperatures will be cooler because of clouds and precipitation
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
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No major concerns. There could be some storms over the coming week. Lightning will be the only real concern for outdoor events. Sports events should monitor radars and lightning data.
Gusty winds and brief heavy downpours can be associated with thunderstorms. Organized severe weather is not in the forecast.
Most of this week will bring a chance for a few thunderstorms. Just keep that in mind. Organized severe weather is not anticipated.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level is ONE. A few storms will be possible through the week. Organized severe weather is not anticipated. There could be some high winds with a few storms. This type of atmosphere typically does produce isolated severe weather reports
Anyone with outdoor events should monitor radars and lightning data. Even though a thunderstorm might not be severe, it could certainly cause problems if you have an outdoor sporting event or are camping.
Thursday Severe Weather Outlook – A few storms possible. Right now I am not expecting severe storms.
Friday Severe Weather Outlook – A few storms possible. Right now I am not expecting severe storms.
Saturday Severe Weather Outlook – We may have some thunderstorms in the region
Sunday Severe Weather Outlook – We may have some thunderstorms in the region
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
As we enter the late spring and summer months, keep in mind that slow moving thunderstorms can always produce locally heavy rainfall totals. This is no secret to all of you who are farmers. Your neighbors could pick up 1″ of rain from a thunderstorm, meanwhile you are sitting on dry ground. Forecasting exact rainfall totals during this time of the year can be tricky, at best.
Between today and next Monday expect widespread 1-2″ of rain over the region with pockets of heavier totals, again.
This section of the blog is speculative forecast information. Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation. Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.
Highlights
1. Will we see a cool down next week? Less humid, as well?
The main story in the long range forecast will be a cold front over the weekend. The cold front will spark showers and locally heavy thunderstorms. Does this again sound familiar? Seems like every weekend has a cold front lately.
Saturday into Monday high temperatures will be a little cooler. Saturday they will be cooler because of clouds and precipitation. Sunday they will be cooler because a cold front will have passed through the area.
Here are the forecast temperatures for Saturday-Monday
Saturday
Sunday
Monday
Timing of the front will need to be fine tuned. Right now it appears the best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be around Saturday morning into Saturday night. But, the models have been horrible lately and I don’t have much faith in them.
We will have a warm and humid air mass over our region. That means any storms that form could produce some pockets of heavy rain, gusty winds, and small hail. Again, think about the last 4 or 5 weekends. Same type of set-up.
Here are some future-cast weather maps for Saturday into Sunday. Green represents at least scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms.
Again, confidence is fairly low on the actual timing and coverage of precipitation.
Have a plan B, again this weekend.
Saturday morning GFS model map
Saturday afternoon. That is a lot of green (at least on the GFS model). If the GFS is right then we will have quite a few showers and thunderstorms in the region.
Then on Sunday morning the map below continues to show some precipitation in our region
And then finally on Sunday evening. Bottom line…some precipitation again possible this coming weekend.
When will we dry out?
Some of the long range data indicates Monday into Wednesday of next week will be drier and cooler. We can hope. Confidence is low. This time of the year we typically have 20% chances of precipitation on most days.
Also, the front might stall out near our region. If that happens then rain will continue into the week.
Hopefully we can find some dry days for the farmers to finish up some field work. Best chances might be early next week into the middle of next week.
I will monitor and update as we move forward.
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
This blog was inspired by ABC 33/40’s Alabama Weather Blog – view their blog
Current tower cam view from the Weather Observatory- Click here for all cameras.
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
The Weather Observatory
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
WSIL TV 3 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Illinois Road Conditions
Marion, Illinois
WPSD TV 6 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Kentucky Road Conditions & Kentucky Highway and Interstate Cameras
Downtown Paducah, Kentucky
Benton, Kentucky Tower Camera – Click here for full view
Benton, Kentucky
I24 Paducah, Kentucky
I24 Mile Point 9 – Paducah, KY
I24 – Mile Point 3 Paducah, Kentucky
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
