Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

May 27, 2022. Beau’s subscriber’s weather blog update. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome Once subscribed, download the WeatherTalk app in the app store

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Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. 
SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.


48-hour forecast



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Friday to Friday

1. Is lightning in the forecast?  Yes.  Today.  I will monitor next Wednesday and Thursday.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast?  Not at this time.

The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast?  Not at this time.

4. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees?  Monitor.  It may come close next Tuesday and Wednesday.

5.  Is measurable snow or ice in the forecast?   No.

6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.

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May 27, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  High confidence
Friday Forecast: Mostly cloudy.   A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 20%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% /  the rest of South IL ~ 30%  /  West KY ~ 40%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40%  /  NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 68°  /  SE MO 64° to 68° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 64° to 68° /  South IL 64° to 68°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 68°  /  West KY 64° to 68° /  NW TN 64° to 68°
Winds will be from the:  West 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but check radars
UV Index:  9. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:38 AM
Sunset:  8:07 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.  A chance of an early evening shower or thunderstorm.  The bulk of the rain will be over.  Patchy morning fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 10% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 10%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% /  the rest of South IL ~ 20%  /  West KY ~ 20%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20%  /  NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Before 9 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 52° to 54°  /  SE MO 52° to 54° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 52° to 54° /  South IL 52° to 54°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 52° to 54°  /  West KY 52° to 54° /  NW TN 52° to 54°
Winds will be from the:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 54°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Patchy dense fog.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Moonrise: 4:05 AM
Moonset:  5:39 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

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May 28, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  High confidence
Saturday Forecast: Mostly sunny.  Patchy morning fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 78° to 82°  /  SE MO 76° to 82° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 76° to 80° /  South IL 76° to 80°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 76° to 80°  /  West KY 76° to 80° /  NW TN 78° to 82°
Winds will be from the:   South 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 76° to 82°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index:  9. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:38 AM
Sunset:  8:08 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 64°  /  SE MO 58° to 62° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 58° to 60° /  South IL 58° to 62°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 62°  /  West KY 60° to 64° /  NW TN 62° to 64°
Winds will be from the: South southeast 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Moonrise: 4:31 AM
Moonset:  6:41 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

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May 29, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  High confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly sunny.  Warm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 86° to 88°  /  SE MO 84° to 86° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 84° to 86° /  South IL 84° to 88°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 84° to 88°  /  West KY 84° to 88° /  NW TN 86° to 88°
Winds will be from the:   South 8 to 16 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 85° to 90°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index:  9. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:37 AM
Sunset:  8:08 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 68°  /  SE MO 64° to 68° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 64° to 68° /  South IL 64° to 68°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 68°  /  West KY 64° to 68° /  NW TN 66° to 68°
Winds will be from the: South 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Moonrise: 5:01 AM
Moonset:  7:41 PM
The phase of the moon:  New

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May 30, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  High confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly  sunny.  Hot.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 90°  /  SE MO 86° to 90° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 86° to 90° /  South IL 86° to 90°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 84° to 88°  /  West KY 86° to 90° /  NW TN 88° to 90°
Winds will be from the:   South 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 90° to 95°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index:  9. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:37 AM
Sunset:  8:09 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Warm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 70°  /  SE MO 64° to 68° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 64° to 68° /  South IL 66° to 68°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 68°  /  West KY 66° to 68° /  NW TN 66° to 68°
Winds will be from the:  South 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Moonrise: 5:34 AM
Moonset:  8:42 PM
The phase of the moon:  New

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May 31, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  High confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly  sunny.  Hot.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 90° to 94°  /  SE MO 88° to 92° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 88° to 92° /  South IL 88° to 92°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 88° to 92°  /  West KY 88° to 92° /  NW TN 90° to 94°
Winds will be from the:   South 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 95° to 100°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index:  10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:36 AM
Sunset:  8:10 PM
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Tuesday  night Forecast: Mostly clear. Warm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 70°  /  SE MO 66° to 68° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 66° to 68° /  South IL 66° to 68°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 68°  /  West KY 66° to 68° /  NW TN 66° to 68°
Winds will be from the:  South 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Moonrise: 6:14 AM
Moonset:  9:38 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

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June 1, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly  sunny.  Hot.  A slight chance of  thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 30%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% /  the rest of South IL ~ 20%  /  West KY ~ 20%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20%  /  NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: During the afternoon
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 90° to 94°  /  SE MO 88° to 92° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 88° to 92° /  South IL 88° to 92°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 88° to 92°  /  West KY 88° to 92° /  NW TN 90° to 94°
Winds will be from the:   South 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 95° to 100°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index:  10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:36 AM
Sunset:  8:11 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.  A chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO Bootheel ~ 30% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 30%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% /  the rest of South IL ~ 30%  /  West KY ~ 30%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30%  /  NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 70°  /  SE MO 66° to 68° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 66° to 68° /  South IL 66° to 68°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 68°  /  West KY 66° to 68° /  NW TN 66° to 68°
Winds will be from the:  South 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Moonrise: 6:59 AM
Moonset:  10:31 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

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June 2, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Thursday Forecast: Partly sunny.  A chance of  thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 30%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% /  the rest of South IL ~ 20%  /  West KY ~ 20%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20%  /  NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: During the afternoon
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 82° to 84°  /  SE MO 80° to 84° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 80° to 84° /  South IL 80° to 84°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 84°  /  West KY 80° to 84° /  NW TN 80° to 84°
Winds will be from the:   South 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 84°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index:  10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:35 AM
Sunset:  8:12 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.  Warm.  A slight chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO Bootheel ~ 20% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 20%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% /  the rest of South IL ~ 20%  /  West KY ~ 20%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20%  /  NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated.
Timing of the rain: Before midnight.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 64°  /  SE MO 60° to 64° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 60° to 64° /  South IL 60° to 64°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 64°  /  West KY 60° to 64° /  NW TN 60° to 64°
Winds will be from the:  South 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Moonrise: 7:50 AM
Moonset:  11:17 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

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June 3, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Friday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 84°  /  SE MO 80° to 84° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 80° to 84° /  South IL 80° to 84°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 84°  /  West KY 80° to 84° /  NW TN 80° to 84°
Winds will be from the:   South 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 84°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index:  10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:35 AM
Sunset:  8:12 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 64°  /  SE MO 60° to 64° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 60° to 64° /  South IL 60° to 64°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 64°  /  West KY 60° to 64° /  NW TN 60° to 64°
Winds will be from the:  South 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Moonrise: 8:46 AM
Moonset:  11:58 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

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June 4, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 84°  /  SE MO 80° to 84° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 80° to 84° /  South IL 80° to 84°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 84°  /  West KY 80° to 84° /  NW TN 80° to 84°
Winds will be from the:   South 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 84°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index:  10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:35 AM
Sunset:  8:12 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 64°  /  SE MO 60° to 64° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 60° to 64° /  South IL 60° to 64°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 64°  /  West KY 60° to 64° /  NW TN 60° to 64°
Winds will be from the:  South 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Moonrise: 9:45 AM
Moonset:  -:– PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

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June 5, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Partly sunny.  A chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 30%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% /  the rest of South IL ~ 30%  /  West KY ~ 30%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30%  /  NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 84°  /  SE MO 80° to 84° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 80° to 84° /  South IL 80° to 84°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 84°  /  West KY 80° to 84° /  NW TN 80° to 84°
Winds will be from the:   South 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 84°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updates.
UV Index:  10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:35 AM
Sunset:  8:13 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Partly cloudy with a chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 30%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% /  the rest of South IL ~ 30%  /  West KY ~ 30%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30%  /  NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 64°  /  SE MO 60° to 64° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 60° to 64° /  South IL 60° to 64°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 64°  /  West KY 60° to 64° /  NW TN 60° to 64°
Winds will be from the:  South 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Moonrise: 10:46 AM
Moonset:  12:33 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

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** The farming portion of the blog has been moved further down.  Scroll down to the weekly temperature and precipitation outlook.  You will find the farming and long range graphics there. **


Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

 



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Today through May 31st:   Severe storms are not anticipated.

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Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.

24-hour precipitation outlook.


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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion

    1.   A few remaining showers and thunderstorms today.
    2.   Dry tonight through Tuesday night.
    3.   Strong warming trend next week.

 

Weather advice:

Make sure you are using the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app and not text messages.  We can’t rely on Verizon and ATT to send out the text messages in a timely manner.  Thus, we made the app.  See links at the bottom of the page.

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Forecast Discussion

Friday and Friday night

A large upper level low continues to spin across the central United States.  This upper level low will continue to slowly push off to the east today.

You can see that on the visible satellite imagery.  Note the comma shape.

The end result will be scattered showers and thunderstorms today.  Coverage won’t be all that great and many areas may remain dry.  A few locations will pick up a brief shower/thunderstorm.

By tonight, the system will push off to our east.  That will leave us with a few clouds and perhaps some patchy fog.  Precipitation should come to an end by this evening.

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Saturday through Thursday

Saturday will be dry and mild.   Decent camping weather.

A warming trend will begin this weekend.  Expect highs by Monday and Tuesday to top out around 90 degrees.  That would be above our seasonal norms.

It will be humid, as well.

Expect dry conditions Saturday through Tuesday.

Sunday high temperatures

Monday high temperatures

Tuesday high temperatures

Wednesday high temperatures

Thursday high temperatures

A few showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast by next Wednesday and Thursday.  At this time, I capped the chances in the 20% to 30% range.  That may need adjusting if confidence increases.  For now, I have scattered thunderstorms in the forecast.

Temperatures may be somewhat cooler by Thursday.

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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

  1. The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
  2. The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.

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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.

I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.

You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1 PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

 

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This animation is the HRW FV3 high resolution model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

 

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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1 PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

 

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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

Double click the animation to enlarge it.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1 PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

 

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.This animation is the higher-resolution 3K NAM American Model.

Double click the animation to enlarge it.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1 PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

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This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1 PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

 

 

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This next animation is the GFS American Model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1 PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

 

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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1 PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

 

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This next animation is the Canadian Weather model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1 PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

 

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Double click the graphics below to enlarge them.

These graphics are usually not updated until after 10 AM

Double click on image to enlarge it

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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 82 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 62 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″

Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.

This outlook covers May 27th through June 2nd

Click on the image to expand it.

These are usually updated between 8:30 and 9:30 AM

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Red/orange is below average. Green/blue is above average. Blue is much above average.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 83 degrees

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 64 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″
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This outlook covers June 3rd through June 9th

Click on the image to expand it.

 

The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.

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THIS IS UPDATED ON TUESDAY AND FRIDAY
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Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around  85 degrees
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 65 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 2.00″ to 2.40″

This outlook covers June 10th through June 23rd

Precipitation outlook

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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.

SPRING OUTLOOK

Temperatures

Precipitation.

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Monthly Outlooks

May Temperature outlook

May Precipitations Outlook

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SUMMER OUTLOOK

Double click on the images to enlarge them.

 

June through August temperature and precipitation outlooks.

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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal

June Temperature Outlook

June Precipitation Outlook

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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal

July Temperature Outlook

July Precipitation Outlook

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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal

August Temperature Outlook

August Precipitation Outlook

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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal

September Temperature Outlook

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Great news! The videos are now found in your WeatherTalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.

These are bonus videos for subscribers.

The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk

Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.

The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.

Apple users click here

Android users click here



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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

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Live lightning data: Click here.

Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99

Our new Zoom radar with storm chases

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.

College of Dupage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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2016-11-19_11-50-24

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