May 27, 2021. Beau’s subscriber’s weather blog update. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome Once subscribed, download the WeatherTalk app in the app store

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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

The Severe Weather Live-Blog has been activated. Please see it at this link. Click here.

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Thursday to Thursday

1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Today and tonight. Perhaps Tuesday/Wednesday.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Yes. Storms may become severe Thursday afternoon and night as a stronger system moves through the region. Damaging wind is the primary concern. Perhaps a tornado. See the severe weather blog. The Severe Weather Live-Blog has been activated. Please see it at this link. Click here.

The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Unlikely. Thunderstorms may produce some downpours Wednesday and Thursday. Widespread flood issues are not in the forecast.

4. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? No.

5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? No.

6. Will there be accumulating snow and ice in the forecast? No.

The Severe Weather Live-Blog has been activated. Please see it at this link. Click here.

May 27, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Thursday Forecast: Partly sunny. Warm. Showers and thunderstorms developing mainly during the late morning and afternoon hours. Some storms could be severe over Missouri and Illinois. Everyone else should monitor updates.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 50% / SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~60% / South IL ~ 50% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered after 11 AM. More numerous as a line of storms moves in from the northwest after 2:30 PM
Timing of the rain: Lower chances before noon. Higher chances during the afternoon and overnight hours.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 88° / SE MO 84° to 86° / South IL 84° to 88° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 84° to 88° / West KY 84° to 88° / NW TN 84° to 88°
Wind direction and speed: South at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 84° to 88°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning, Strong winds with storms. Hail. Severe thunderstorms are possible (mainly over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois). Everyone else should monitor updates.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:38 AM
Sunset: 8:07PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Some storms could be severe.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 70% / SE MO ~ 70% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 70% / South IL ~ 70% / West KY ~ 70% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 70% / NW TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the night
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 65° to 70° / SE MO 60° to 65° / South IL 62° to 66° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 63° to 66° / West KY 64° to 68° / NW TN 64° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest at 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Downpours. Wet roadways. Lightning. A few storms could be severe with hail and high wind. Monitor updates.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates and radars.
Moonrise: 9:58 PM
Moonset: 6:34 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

May 28, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Friday Forecast: Morning clouds. Some clearing during the afternoon. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Rain chances should diminish through the day. Higher chances AM vs PM.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~40% / South IL ~ 50% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous early in the day. Becoming more scattered as the day wears on.
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the day.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 75° to 80° / SE MO 68° to 74° / South IL 68° to 74° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 74° to 78° / West KY 75° to 80° / NW TN 75° to 80°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest to west 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 80°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 5:38 AM
Sunset: 8:08 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Cooler. Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 52° / SE MO 48° to 52° / South IL 48° to 52° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50° to 52° / West KY 50° to 52° / NW TN 52° to 54°
Wind direction and speed: North northwest 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 54°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lower visibility where fog occurs.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:03 PM
Moonset: 7:31 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

May 29, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Saturday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 65° to 68° / SE MO 64° to 68° / South IL 64° to 68° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 68° / West KY 66° to 68° / NW TN 66° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 5:37 AM
Sunset: 8:09 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Perhaps a few clouds. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 48° / SE MO 42° to 45° / South IL 42° to 45° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 48° / West KY 44° to 48° / NW TN 44° to 48°
Wind direction and speed: North northwest 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 48°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:58 PM
Moonset: 8:37 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

May 30, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 74° to 76° / SE MO 74° to 76° / South IL 74° to 76° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 74° to 76° / West KY 74° to 76° / NW TN 74° to 76°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 78°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8. High.
Sunrise: 5:37 AM
Sunset: 8:09 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 53° to 56° / SE MO 52° to 54° / South IL 52° to 54° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 52° to 55° / West KY 52° to 55° / NW TN 54° to 56°
Wind direction and speed: East northeast at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 56°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise:
Moonset: 9:45 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

May 31, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Monday’s comfort index is nice. Should be a nice day comfort wise. 100 is nice.

Monday Forecast: Becoming partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / SE MO ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None for most
Timing of the rain: PM hours for the Ozarks of Missouri
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 84° / SE MO 80° to 82° / South IL 80° to 82° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 82° / West KY 80° to 84° / NW TN 80° to 84°
Wind direction and speed: North 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 85°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? N0
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 5:36 AM
Sunset: 8:10 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated over southeast Missouri
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the night
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 60° / SE MO 55° to 60° / South IL 55° to 60° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 55° to 60° / West KY 55° to 60° / NW TN 55° to 60°
Wind direction and speed: East southeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 55° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:43 AM
Moonset: 10:53 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

June 1, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Partly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the day
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 78° to 82° / SE MO 75° to 80° / South IL 75° to 80° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 75° to 80° / West KY 76° to 80° / NW TN 78° to 80°
Wind direction and speed: Light wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 76° to 82°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? N0, but check the weather radars
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 5:35 AM
Sunset: 8:09 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the night
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 64° / SE MO 60° to 62° / South IL 60° to 62° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 62° / West KY 60° to 62° / NW TN 60° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: Light wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the radars
Moonrise: 1:17 AM
Moonset: 11:58 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

These graphics are changed out between 10:00 AM and 11:00 AM (Monday through Friday only)

Double click on the images to enlarge them.

Click the images to enlarge them.

Click images to enlarge them

Graphic-cast

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Illinois

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

Kentucky

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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.Tennessee

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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Today through May 31st: The Severe Weather Live-Blog has been activated. Please see it at this link. Click here.

Thunderstorms may develop after 12 PM today. A few of the storms could be quite intense. A line of storms will approach the northern portions of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois after 2 PM. This line of storms could produce damaging wind and hail. A low-end tornado risk. The line will then move southeast into the rest of the area. Other storms may develop or move in from the west. Some of the storms could be severe. Monitor updates.

The risk is higher over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois and a bit lower elsewhere. Monitor updates. See the severe weather blog.

Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:

A few thunderstorms could be severe later today and tonight. Monitor the Beau Dodson Weather app or the live severe weather blog.

Weather Discussion

1. Showers and thunderstorms chances today and tonight. Ending Friday.
2. A few storms could become severe Thursday afternoon and night.
3. Cooler by the weekend. Some clouds Saturday will make it feel cooler.
4. Decent Saturday through Monday forecast.

The Severe Weather Live-Blog has been activated. Please see it at this link. Click here.

We had a few severe thunderstorms in the region Wednesday. Wind was the concern with storms in several counties.

These photos are from the Weather Observatory in Massac County. No, those aren’t tornadoes! Those are heavy rain shafts.

The primary weather concern in the short-term forecast will be thunderstorm chances today.

We have several complexes of thunderstorms over Iowa, Missouri, and Kansas as of this writing (7 AM).

These clusters of storms can be seen on both satellite and radar.

The satellite view showers the cold cloud tops (bright colors). Those are thunderstorms. Remember, these are clouds.

See the live satellite and radar links at the bottom of the page for the latest images.

And radar shows the rain and thunderstorms. Again, this is the 7 AM radar. See the live radar links for the updated images.

All of this will push into our region later this afternoon and into tonight.

There remain questions about whether we will experience much in the way of severe thunderstorms.

Dew points will struggle later today over Illinois, Kentucky, and Tennessee. Higher dew points over southeast Missouri. Dew points measure moisture in the atmosphere. Higher dew points equal higher severe weather chances.

CAPE also struggles. CAPE is a measure of energy.

I am forecasting the highest risk of severe weather to be placed over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. Decreasing chances as you move further south and east. That does not mean Kentucky and Tennessee won’t experience a severe weather risk. It just means the risk appears smaller.

A few thunderstorms could form ahead of the main squall line. If that happens then those could produce damaging wind and hail, as well.

Some of the models hint as this happening between 11 AM and 2 PM.

The main line will approach southeast Missouri and southern Illinois between 12 PM and 3 PM. We will have to see how much of it remains intact.

Additional lines of thunderstorms may form over southern Missouri and northern Arkansas this afternoon. Those would move east/southeast, as well.

The bulk of the thunderstorm activity will occur between 2 PM and 10 PM.

Monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app for the most up to date information.

Did you know that we have a SEE ALL tab on the www.weathertalk.com website? You can view every message for every county.

Click here to view that tab.

Notice how the CAPE is a bit muddled. It attempts to pump up tomorrow and then is knocked back down. That is because of the morning showers and thunderstorms.

If that morning line messes with the CAPE then it may be difficult for the CAPE to recover. If the CAPE does not recover then the risk of severe weather is lower.

The SPC (Storm Prediction Center) has outlined the risk of severe thunderstorms for our entire area. As a matter of fact they have a level one, two, and three risk outlined.

Five is their highest risk.

Here is the discussion from the Storm Prediction Center. The graphic shows you their primary concern zone. You can see the risk is a bit higher as you travel west/southwest.

Monitor updated forecasts. Adjustments are possible.

Weekend temperatures were lowered a bit. Much cooler air compared to the past week. Unusually cool. Not sure we break any record minimum high temperatures, but it is possible. That would be especially true Saturday.

Dry Saturday, Sunday, and Monday.

We will have to deal with clouds Saturday. This will make it feel even cooler.

Another system will approach the region Monday night, Tuesday, and Wednesday. I did place shower chances back into the forecast during that time-frame. This could continue into Thursday, as well. Too soon to know if severe weather will be a concern.

Friday high temperatures

Saturday highs

Sunday highs

Monday highs

Updated Summer Outlook

Click these two images to enlarge them (so you can read them better)

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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.

What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.

I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.

You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.

This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.

.This animation is the 3K NAM American Model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

This next animation is the GFS American Model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

Longer range GFS

This next animation is the EC European Weather model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

Long range

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 80 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 60 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.30″

Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.

This outlook covers May 27th through June 1st

Click on the image to expand it.

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.

Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 83 degrees

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 62 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.50″
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This outlook covers June 3rd through June 9th

Click on the image to expand it.

The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.

THIS IS UPDATED ON TUESDAY AND FRIDAY

Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average

Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 84 degrees
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 63 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 2.50″ to 2.90″

This outlook covers June 8th through June 21st

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Precipitation outlook