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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The rest of this afternoon: Flash flood watch. Thunderstorms likely. Some storms could produce flash flooding. Frequent lightning, as well. South winds at 6-12 mph
Thursday Night – Partly cloudy. Thunderstorms possible. Mild.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain and gusty winds. Small hail.
Temperatures: Lows in the 66-72 degree range
Winds: Winds south and southwest at 5-10 mph. Gusts to 12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Low risk for a couple of storms to pulse up to severe levels. Briefly producing hail and strong winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars and updates.
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Friday – Mostly cloudy. Thunderstorms likely. Some storms could produce torrential downpours.
What impact is expected? Wet roads. Lightning. Gusty winds near storms. Heavy downpours. Perhaps small hail.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 75-80 degree range. High temperatures on Friday will be highly dependent on cloud cover.
Winds: South and southwest winds at 6-12 mph with gusts to 18 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%-70%
Coverage of precipitation? Perhaps numerous.
Is severe weather expected? Low risk for a couple of storms to pulse up to severe levels. Briefly producing hail and strong winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars and updates.
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Friday Night – Partly cloudy. A few storms possible overnight.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty winds near storms.
Temperatures: Lows in the 65-70 degree range
Winds: Winds south and southwest at 5-10 mph. Gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered. Perhaps numerous during the evening hours.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely. A few storms could, however, be intense.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars and updates.
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Saturday – Partly sunny. Very warm. Scattered thunderstorms possible. If storms form then they could produce heavy downpours.
What impact is expected? Wet roads. Lightning. Gusty winds near storms.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 80-85 degree range.
Winds: South and southwest winds at 6-12 mph. Gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40% (a few storms are likely to pop up on radar)
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Low risk for a couple of storms to pulse up to severe levels. Briefly producing hail and strong winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars and updates.
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Saturday Night – Partly cloudy. Warm. Isolated thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty winds near storms.
Temperatures: Lows in the 68-72 degree range
Winds: Winds south and southwest at 5-10 mph. Gusts to 12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Spotty
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars and updates.
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Sunday – Partly sunny. Very warm. Humid. An isolated thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roads. Lightning. Gusty winds near storms.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 84-88 range
Winds: Winds south and southwest at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%-20%
Coverage of precipitation? Spotty
Is severe weather expected? Low risk for a couple of storms to pulse up to severe levels. Briefly producing hail and strong winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars and updates.
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Sunday Night – Partly cloudy. A thunderstorm possible. Warm.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty winds near storms.
Temperatures: Lows in the 68-72 degree range
Winds: Winds variable at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Spotty
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars and updates.
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Monday ~ Memorial Day. – Partly sunny. Very warm. Humid. An isolated thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roads. Lightning. Gusty winds near storms.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 82-88 degree range.
Winds: Variable winds at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%-20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars and updates.
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Monday Night – Partly cloudy. An isolated thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 65-70 degree range
Winds: Winds variable at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%-20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars and updates.
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Tuesday. – Partly sunny. Warm. An isolated thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roads. Lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 84-88 degree range.
Winds: East and soutehast winds at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
Is severe weather expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Tuesday Night – Partly cloudy. A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 68-72 degree range
Winds: Winds east and southeast at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%-20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Wednesday. – Partly sunny. Warm. A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roads. Lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 84-88 degree range.
Winds: East and southeast winds at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Is severe weather expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Wednesday Night – Partly cloudy. A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 64-68 degree range
Winds: Winds east and southeast at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Thursday. – Partly sunny.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 78-84 degree range.
Winds: West and northwest winds at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Is severe weather expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Thursday Night – Partly cloudy.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: Lows in the 64-68 degree range
Winds: Winds west and northwest at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Friday. – Partly sunny.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 78-84 degree range.
Winds: South and southwest winds at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation?
Is severe weather expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Friday Night – Partly cloudy.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: Lows in the 64-68 degree range
Winds: Winds south and southwest at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Saturday. – Partly sunny.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 78-84 degree range.
Winds: West and northwest winds at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Saturday Night – Partly cloudy.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 64-68 degree range
Winds: Winds south and southwest at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities. Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
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The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate.
The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- Rinse and repeat forecast
- Another round of widespread showers and storms possible on Friday
- Scattered storms possible Saturday
- Isolated storms possible Sunday and Monday. Very warm when clouds are not present.
Well, I promised you plenty of heavy storms this week. And, for the most part, that has occurred. Many areas have picked up some hefty rain totals since Tuesday. A squall line moved through the region on Thursday morning. Some locations picked up several inches of rain. There was also some hail reported in Williamson County, Illinois.
Additional heavy rain is likely this afternoon (Thursday afternoon). Flash flooding is a concern.
The main upper level disturbance will move through the region on Friday. This will spark another round of potentially widespread showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain is possible once again on Friday.
The good news is that precipitation is forecast to become isolated to scattered over the weekend. Scattered storms possible on Saturday. Isolated storms possible on Sunday and Monday. When clouds are not present you can expect temperature to soar into the middle to upper 80s. Humid, as well. Heat index values may occasionally approach 90 degrees.
Warm temperatures will continue into the new work week. Expect middle to upper 80s on Monday into Wednesday.
A cooling trend appears possible as we push into the Thursday-Saturday time frame of next week.
The risk for severe weather over the coming days will be small. Not zero, but small. The main concern would be pulse severe storms. Pulse severe storms are storm cells that briefly pulse up to severe levels. A severe thunderstorm is defined as one that produces 58 mph winds or greater, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado. The tornado risk is very low.
Locally heavy rain and lightning will be the primary concern from thunderstorms. There is no shortage of moisture in the atmosphere. PWAT values have been in the 1.5 to 1.8″ range. Copious amounts of moisture in the atmosphere.
Radar
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Thursday Night: Thunderstorms are possible. Lightning and gusty winds being the main concern. Heavy downpours.
Friday: Monitor updates. Thunderstorms are possible. Lightning is the main concern. Heavy downpours.
Friday night: Monitor updates. Thunderstorms are possible. Lightning is the main concern. Heavy downpours.
Saturday: Monitor updates. Thunderstorms are possible. Lightning is the main concern. Heavy downpours.
Sunday: Monitor updates. Isolated thunderstorm possible. Lightning is the main concern. Heavy downpours.
Monday: Monitor updates. Isolated thunderstorm possible. Lightning is the main concern. Heavy downpours.
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No major shifts in the forecast.
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The main concern will continue to be scattered showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain. Rainfall totals of 1-3″ per hour in the most intense cells.
Lightning might be the main concern. Especially true for campers.
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Monitor updates this week. You might throw an umbrella in the car. On and off thunderstorm chances will be with us through the upcoming weekend.
Cloud to ground lightning will be a concern for outdoor events.
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
