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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
The pattern over the coming days will bring a few thunderstorms. This is a summer type pattern. I can’t rule out a storm from time to time. I will try to give you the % number…the best I can.
Wednesday – Scattered showers and thunderstorms. A few heavy storms possible. Warm and humid. Highs in the 80’s. South and southwest winds at 10-15 mph. Chance for precipitation at any given location is 40% – 60%
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Some storms possible
Morning School Bus Stop Weather – Partly sunny. A thunderstorm possible over southeast Missouri. Warm. Morning temperatures in the lower 70’s.
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Afternoon School Bus Stop Weather – Partly sunny. A chance for a thunderstorm. Warm and muggy. Temperatures in the afternoon will be in the 80’s
Wednesday night – Partly cloudy. Warm and humid. An evening storm possible. Lows in the 70’s. East winds at 5 mph. Chance for precipitation at any given location is 20%
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would not cancel any plans. Can’t rule out a few storms.
Thursday – Partly sunny. Warm and humid. A chance for a thunderstorm. Highs in the 80’s. Generally winds will be southerly at 5-10 mph. Gusts to 15 mph. Chance for precipitation at any given location is 30%
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would not cancel any plans. Can’t rule out a few storms.
Thursday night – Partly cloudy. Warm and humid. Lows in the 70’s. South/southeast winds at 5-10 mph. Chance for precipitation at any given location is 10%
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would not cancel any plans. Can’t rule out a few storms.
Friday – Partly sunny warm and humid. Highs in the 80’s. Southerly winds at 5-15 mph. Chance for precipitation at any given location is 30%
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would not cancel any plans. Can’t rule out a few storms.
Sunrise and Sunset Times – Click Here
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by TransAmerica Agency Network Paducah District – you can visit their Facebook page here and their home page here
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. A warm and muggy week ahead of us. Summer type pattern for a few days.
2. Daily chance for a few scattered pop-up thunderstorms
3. Another cold front by the weekend with some chances for thunderstorms.
Well, Memorial Day Weekend is usually considered the kick-off to summer and the weather for the week ahead will deliver just that. A summer type pattern will be with us through at least Friday. Warm and humid with daily chances for some pop up thunderstorms.
Any storms that form in this type of atmosphere could produce brief heavy downpours, gusty winds, and lightning.
Not expecting organized severe thunderstorms. As always, a storm in a warm and moist atmosphere can produce a report of a down burst here and there. Lightning is a concern for outdoor activities, as always.
We have been extremely fortunate this year, thus far. There have only been a handful of severe weather reports in the region. A couple of days where there was organized severe thunderstorms. Normally April and May keep meteorologists very busy. That has not been the case this year. Yes, we have had a lot of rain in the region…but severe weather has been absent. Hopefully we continue the pattern into this week.
June can bring severe thunderstorms. Not out of the woods just yet. But, every passing week brings us one week closer to the summer. Summer usually is a little calmer for organized severe weather. Squall lines coming in from the northwest are usually the problems during summer months.
Another cold front will approach the region over the weekend. Go figure. We are on a roll for weekend cold fronts. See the extended discussion for details.
High temperatures this week will be well into the 80’s. Especially true if the sun can stay out for a period of time. Would not be surprised to see a 90 pop up somewhere in my forecast area.
Dew points will be high this week. Thus, it will feel humid/muggy at times
What are dew points? Well, another great question. A lot of people confuse humidity and dew points. I like to use dew points to measure moisture in the air. This is the better way, actually. To learn more about dew points…click here
Here are the Wednesday dew point temperatures. Well into the 60’s. Humid.
Here are the Thursday dew points. Well into the 60’s and 70’s. Air you wear is what Jim Rasor calls those type of dew points.
Here are the Friday dew points. Again, muggy air. Humid. Summer like.
High temperatures
Wednesday High Temperatures
Thursday High Temperatures
Friday High Temperatures
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
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No major concerns. There could be some storms over the coming week. Lightning will be the only real concern for outdoor events. Sports events should monitor radars and lightning data.
Gusty winds and brief heavy downpours can be associated with thunderstorms. Organized severe weather is not in the forecast.
Most of this week will bring a chance for a few thunderstorms. Just keep that in mind. Organized severe weather is not anticipated.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level is ONE. A few storms will be possible through the week. Organized severe weather is not anticipated. There could be some high winds with a few storms. This type of atmosphere typically does produce isolated severe weather reports
Anyone with outdoor events should monitor radars and lightning data. Even though a thunderstorm might not be severe, it could certainly cause problems if you have an outdoor sporting event or are camping.
Wednesday Severe Weather Outlook – A few storms possible. Right now I am not expecting severe storms.
Thursday Severe Weather Outlook – A few storms possible. Right now I am not expecting severe storms.
Friday Severe Weather Outlook – A few storms possible. Right now I am not expecting severe storms.
Saturday Severe Weather Outlook – We may have some thunderstorms in the region
Sunday Severe Weather Outlook – We may have some thunderstorms in the region
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
As we enter the late spring and summer months, keep in mind that slow moving thunderstorms can always produce locally heavy rainfall totals. This is no secret to all of you who are farmers. Your neighbors could pick up 1″ of rain from a thunderstorm, meanwhile you are sitting on dry ground. Forecasting exact rainfall totals during this time of the year can be tricky, at best.
This section of the blog is speculative forecast information. Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation. Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.
Highlights
1. Will we see a cool down next week? Less humid, as well?
2. Long range outlook for June
A cold front will push through our region on Sunday or Monday. That will bring drier and cooler air into the region. It appears we will see normal to below normal temperatures for much of next week. Keep in mind this is a long range forecast. Confidence is always lower in the long range.
I am forecasting June to bring normal to below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation.
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
This blog was inspired by ABC 33/40’s Alabama Weather Blog – view their blog
Current tower cam view from the Weather Observatory- Click here for all cameras.
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
The Weather Observatory
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
WSIL TV 3 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Illinois Road Conditions
Marion, Illinois
WPSD TV 6 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Kentucky Road Conditions & Kentucky Highway and Interstate Cameras
Downtown Paducah, Kentucky
Benton, Kentucky Tower Camera – Click here for full view
Benton, Kentucky
I24 Paducah, Kentucky
I24 Mile Point 9 – Paducah, KY
I24 – Mile Point 3 Paducah, Kentucky
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
