May 26th, 2020. Beau’s subscriber’s weather blog update. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome Once subscribed, download the WeatherTalk app in the app store

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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a blend for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

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Tuesday through Tuesday

1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. A chance of lightning Tuesday through Friday night.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Monitor. Once again, thunderstorms over the coming days could produce isolated wind damage. There were several reports of wind damage Monday. Small hail will also be possible. Heavy rain and lightning. A few severe thunderstorm warnings will be possible.

* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Isolated. There is no shortage of moisture. Thunderstorms can drop an inch or two of rain in less than an hour. Pockets of flash flooding will occur where this happens. Widespread flooding will not occur. Pockets of flash flooding where the heavier storms occur.

4. Will there be a chance of a frost or freeze? No.

5. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? No.

6. Will the wet-bulb globe temperature reach danger levels? No. WBFT forecast below.

Tuesday WBGT (F): 78° Humid but not extreme.
Wednesday WBGT (F): 75° Not significant.
Thursday WBGT (F): 74° No issues.
Friday WBGT (F): 73° No issues.
Saturday WBGT (F): 70° Nice feel to the air.
Sunday WBGT (F): 70° Nice feel to the air.
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The WetBulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) is a measure of the heat stress in direct sunlight, which takes into account: temperature, humidity, wind speed, sun angle and cloud cover (solar radiation).

This differs from the heat index, which takes into consideration temperature and humidity and is calculated for shady areas.

If you work or exercise in direct sunlight, this is a good element to monitor.

Sports coaches, schools, military agencies, OSHA, and many nations use the WBGT as a guide to managing workload in direct sunlight.

Something wrong on the page? Suggestions? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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** There will be dry times over the coming days. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, as well **

May 26, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Increasing clouds with showers and thunderstorms again possible. Warm and muggy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 50%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 83° to 86° SE MO 82° to 85° South IL 82° to 85° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 82° to 84° West KY 82° to 84° NW TN 82° to 85°
Wind direction and speed: South and southeast at 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 82° to 88°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Isolated wind damage. Torrential downpours can briefly flood roadways. Nickel size hail in the most intense thunderstorms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would not cancel your plans. I would monitor radars. There will be thunderstorms. It won’t rain all day.
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:38 AM
Sunset: 8:07 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Intervals of clouds. Scattered evening thunderstorms. A chance of thunderstorms after midnight, as well.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 40% to 50% KY ~ 50% to 60% TN ~ 50% to 60%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 70° SE MO 65° to 68° South IL 66° to 68° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 68° West KY 66° to 70° NW TN 68° to 70°
Wind direction and speed: South and southeast wind 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 15 mph during the evening.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 70°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Torrential downpours can briefly flood roadways. Gusty wind near storms. Nickel size hail in the most intense thunderstorms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check weather radars.
Moonrise: 8:50 AM
Moonset: 11:56 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

May 27, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 70% IL ~ 80% KY ~ 70% TN ~ 70%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 76° to 80° SE MO 76° to 80° South IL 76° to 80° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 78° to 82° West KY 76° to 80° NW TN 78° to 82°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 76° to 82°
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty wind near storms. Torrential downpours can briefly flood roadways. Nickel size hail in the most intense thunderstorms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would not cancel all plans. I would monitor radars. There will be thunderstorms. It won’t rain all day.
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:38 AM
Sunset: 8:07 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. The highest chance will be before midnight.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% to 50% IL ~ 40% to 50% KY ~ 40% to 50% TN ~ 40% to 50%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 68° SE MO 62° to 65° South IL 63° to 66° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 65° West KY 63° to 66° NW TN 63° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: South and southeast wind 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 65°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty wind near storms. Torrential downpours can briefly flood roadways. Nickel size hail in the most intense thunderstorms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check weather radars.
Moonrise: 9:52 AM
Moonset: 12:01 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

May 28, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 78° to 80° SE MO 76° to 80° South IL 76° to 80° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 76° to 80° West KY 76° to 82° NW TN 78° to 82°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest at 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 76° to 82°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty wind near storms. Torrential downpours can briefly flood roadways. Nickel size hail in the most intense thunderstorms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updated forecasts. It won’t rain all day.
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:37 AM
Sunset: 8:08 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 63° to 66° SE MO 60° to 64° South IL 60° to 64° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 65° West KY 62° to 65° NW TN 63° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest wind at 5 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 64°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty wind near storms. Torrential downpours can briefly flood roadways. Nickel size hail in the most intense thunderstorms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check weather radars.
Moonrise: 10:58 AM
Moonset: 12:42 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

May 29, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Friday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely along a cold front.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 82° SE MO 76° to 82° South IL 76° to 82° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 76° to 80° West KY 78° to 82° NW TN 78° to 84°
Wind direction and speed: North and northwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 75° to 82°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty wind near storms. Torrential downpours can briefly flood roadways. Nickel size hail in the most intense thunderstorms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would not cancel all plans. I would monitor radars. There will be some showers and thunderstorms to deal with.
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:37 AM
Sunset: 8:09 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Evening clouds. Thunderstorms ending. Turning cooler. Patchy fog possible after midnight.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 55° to 58° SE MO 53° to 56° South IL 54° to 56° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 53° to 56° West KY 53° to 56° NW TN 53° to 56°
Wind direction and speed: North at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 55°
Coverage of precipitation: Ending
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Any precipitation will have ended or will be ending early. Lower visibility if fog forms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Moonrise: 12:06 PM
Moonset: 1:21 AM
The phase of the moon: First Quarter

May 30, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Saturday Forecast: Partly sunny. Cooler. Less muggy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 74° to 76° SE MO 73° to 76° South IL 73° to 76° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 74° to 76° West KY 74° to 76° NW TN 74° to 76°
Wind direction and speed: North at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 75°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:36 AM
Sunset: 8:10 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Pleasant temperatures. Perhaps some late night fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 54° to 58° SE MO 52° to 54° South IL 52° to 55° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 52° to 55° West KY 54° to 58° NW TN 54° to 58°
Wind direction and speed: North at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 55°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lower visibility in areas of fog.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:15 PM
Moonset: 1:57 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

May 31, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 73° to 76° SE MO 73° to 76° South IL 73° to 76° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 72° to 75° West KY 73° to 76° NW TN 73° to 76°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 75°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:36 AM
Sunset: 8:10 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Patchy fog forming.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 53° to 56° SE MO 52° to 55° South IL 52° to 55° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 52° to 55° West KY 53° to 56° NW TN 53° to 56°
Wind direction and speed: East and northeast wind at 4 to 8 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 55°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lower visibility if fog forms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:25 PM
Moonset: 2:30 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

June 1, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Low confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Mild.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 82° SE MO 78° to 82° South IL 78° to 82° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 78° to 82° West KY 80° to 82° NW TN 80° to 82°
Wind direction and speed: East at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 76° to 82°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:35 AM
Sunset: 8:11 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 60° SE MO 54° to 56° South IL 54° to 56° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 56° West KY 54° to 58° NW TN 56° to 60°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 58°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lower visibility if fog forms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 3:34 PM
Moonset: 3:02 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

June 2, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Low confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Warmer.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 83° to 86° SE MO 82° to 85° South IL 82° to 85° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 82° to 85° West KY 82° to 85° NW TN 83° to 86°
Wind direction and speed: South at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 82° to 85°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:35 AM
Sunset: 8:12 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 68° SE MO 64° to 66° South IL 64° to 66° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 65° West KY 62° to 65° NW TN 64° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: South at 4 to 8 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 65°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lower visibility if fog forms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:46 PM
Moonset: 3:33 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

Once again, some fields will be wet.
On and off thunderstorm chances over the coming days.
Drier Friday night into Monday.

Click to enlarge the graphics.

Remember, this is an average across our local area. The county by county will vary. See the detailed forecast above for each area.

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Click graphics to enlarge them.

These are dates that may have precipitation. Monitor the trends in the forecast.

Anything past day seven is low confidence.

Graphic-cast

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Illinois

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

Kentucky

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

Tennessee

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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Today through June 1st. Thunderstorms are likely this week. On and off/scattered summer type storms. That means locally heavy rain and gusty wind. Lightning, of course. Some of the storms will produce damaging wind. Be weather aware if thunderstorms approach your area. Move indoors until the thunderstorms pass. A few severe thunderstorm warnings will be possible.

Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:

Updated May 26, 2020

Thunderstorms this week could produce pockets of heavy rain, gusty wind, and frequent lightning. Some isolated pockets of wind damage will be possible.

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Weather Discussion

1. Warm and humid over the coming days.
2. A few storms with wind damage.
3. Daily chances of showers and thunderstorms.
4. There will be plenty of dry time.

I hope everyone had a nice weekend. It was a difficult forecast. I had to lower rain chances Saturday and Sunday. The atmosphere just could not find a strong enough trigger for most areas to produce thunderstorms.

On the other hand, a few of you received torrential rain.

Sunday afternoon and night produced one to four inches of rain across a chunk of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Damaging wind, as well.

Monday delivered more thunderstorms. Wind damage was reported in several counties.

We will be under the same weather system today and tomorrow. That means additional shower and thunderstorm chances. Some of the storms will produce very heavy rain, dime size hail, and wind damage.

If thunderstorms approach your area then move indoors. One lady was injured Monday from a falling tree branch.

These types of thunderstorms tend to pulse up and then rapidly weaken. During their weakening stage they can produce downburst winds. These winds can briefly exceed 60 mph with little or no warning.

You don’t need a severe thunderstorm warning to have isolated wind damage. Keep that in mind. I will send out an app message this morning.

It will be warm and muggy today and tomorrow. Not quite as warm as recent days.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will last into the overnight hours tonight and tomorrow night. Unlike recent nights, when the storms tended to die off after sunset.

A cold front will push into the region by Thursday and Friday. This cold front will help trigger additional showers and thunderstorms.

The front will push south and east of the region by Saturday and Sunday. This means a nicer air-mass both days. It appears that a nice weekend is on tap for the region.

We will have to deal with thunderstorms Friday. Those will wind down Friday afternoon and evening. Ending west to east.

Highs in the 70s by Saturday and Sunday. Too bad we couldn’t switch weekends. Last weekend with the upcoming one.

Dew points control how muggy it feels.

Let me show you the Thursday dew point map and then the Sunday dew point map. See the change?

Thursday. Humid/muggy air.

Sunday. Nicer air-mass. Much less humid.

Temperatures will be below average this weekend. Normal highs are around 82 and normal lows are around 60 degrees.

Here is the GFS model guidance temperature anomaly forecast. How many degrees above or below normal will temperatures be?

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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.

What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.

I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.

This animation is the Hrrr model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.