Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

May 26, 2019. Severe Weather Live Thread.

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BEGIN LIVE BLOG 

The newest update will be posted here.  Previous updates can be read below this one.

7:00 PM

Thank you for the reports.

Some photos from today’s severe thunderstorms.

Daviess County was hit the hardest.

BIG thanks to Yancy Smith for his help today.

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Here are the messages we sent to Daviess County, KY.

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Interesting cloud formations earlier today in Daviess County, KY. Hard to say if this is part of the shelf cloud or a wall cloud. The photo was taken by TK Bullington.

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Audra Mayfield took this photo in Daviess County, KY.  Right before the storm struck.

It may have been a QLCS tornado. The NWS will determine that. Quite a bit of damage.

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A potent storm struck Daviess County earlier today.

Here are a few damage photos taken by Courtney Payne. There was also structural damage in the City of Owensboro, KY.  The same line of storms.

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Dustin Bell took this photograph of the Graves County thunderstorms.

There were downburst winds in northern Graves County as the storm intensified and then collapsed.

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5:50 PM

Northern Graves and Marshall. Storm moving east at 25 mph. This storm may produce pockets of downburst winds. Be aware as the storm arrives.

5:12 PM

Animation of the storm hitting Daviess County.  70 MPH winds hit the Owensboro area.  Significant damage in the southwest part of the county.

Click the image to view a larger animation.

This is the storm that caused the damage.  You can see the bowing line segment strike the southwest part of Daviess County.

Perhaps a short-lived tornado was embedded in the rain.

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4:28 PM

Trigg, Christian, and Todd. Ongoing/approaching storms could increase in intensity. Pockets of damaging wind are possible. Be aware.

3:50 PM

Those are LBL should be aware of lightning.

3:35 PM

Paducah, Kentucky NWS issues Severe Thunderstorm Warning [wind: 60 MPH, hail: <.75 IN] for Daviess [KY] and Spencer [IN] till 4:00 PM CDT

3:32

Daviess County.  The storm has intensified. Pockets of damaging wind are possible with this storm as it moves east at 25 mph.

2:38 PM

Daviess County be on alert.  These are intense storms with the potential of wind damage.  Bowing segments could cause winds over 70 mph.

2:33 pm

Northern Union and Henderson Counties. Be aware over the coming 30 to 45 minutes. Strong storms moving in from the west. Isolated severe possible.1:55 PM

Franklin, Williamson. & Hamilton. The most intense portion of the storm has moved off to the east.

Monitor the radars.  Storms that are forming are intense.  Many are producing 30 to 45 mph wind gusts.  A bit higher in the heaviest.  Downburst winds are also possible.  Isolated wind damage.

Storms aren’t lasting long at any given location.

1:37 PM

White and Gallatin. Intense storms moving through. Isolated damaging winds are possible & nickel size hail. Be aware until they pass.

1:06 PM

Southern Franklin & northern Williamson This storm has some rotation. Be alert and aware as the storm moves east at 25

Several reports of possible wall clouds and maybe a funnel clouds with this storm.  Be aware.

Cody Simmerman sent this photo in.  Possible wall cloud in northern Williamson County.

 

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9:40 AM

Good day, everyone.

The risk of severe weather today is low, but not zero.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed our region in a risk zone.  Now, they typically move these outlooks around during their updates.  Whether they will keep it marginal and slight is up to them.

It won’t change the going forecast.  A few storms are possible today.  Some could be intense.

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.  I would monitor the light green in my forecast area.  Some storms could be intense there, as well.  SPC believes the main concern is a little further north in the dark green and yellow zone.

Dark green is a level one risk.  Yellow is a level two risk.  Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk.  Red is a level four (moderate) risk.  Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk.  Five is the highest risk.

Light green is not assigned a number.  Light green is where storms may occur but should be below severe levels.

A severe storm is one that produces 60 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.  One or more of those is defined as a severe thunderstorm.

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I know it is a holiday weekend.  I decided to go ahead and start the live severe weather blog.

I will post updates throughout the day.

We have a risk of strong storms today.  Confidence in the overall forecast is rather low.
 
The trigger for storms will be a series of boundaries.
 
Boundaries are caused by dying storms.
 
Last night a large thunderstorm complex moved across Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, and Illinois.
 
These dying storms have left numerous boundaries. Some of those have pushed into our region.
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At 9:30 AM you can see some of those boundaries on regional radar (see storm tracking links above).
A static image of the radar (9:30 AM)
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If storms do form, they will produce cloud to ground lightning, strong wind gusts of 40 to 55 mph, dime-size hail, and gully-washer downpours. Typical summer type storms.

There is no lack of moisture to tap into.

Here are the PWAT values.  They are high.

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If you have outdoor plans today, then go about your business.  Enjoy your family time.  Monitor radars and updates.

I will send out app updates if necessary.  Make sure you have your app on.

Open your app and make sure you did not back out of it and log out.

Don’t back out of the app.  Close the app using your middle button on the phone.

I have family activities today.  I will bring some of my computers with me in case intense storms form.

Here are some future-cast radars.   Remember, these are models.  They won’t be exact.  I am showing you this so you can see what the models are showing.

There is already storm activity on the live radar.

Hrrr model

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NAM model

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NAM 3K model

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SPC WRF model

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Do you have questions or suggestions?  If so, please email me.  Beaudodson@usawx.com

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Sunday:  A boundary will drift southward.  Some storms today could be intense with hail and high winds.  Cloud to ground lightning will be a concern for campers.  Of course, heavy rain will occur with the storms.  There is plenty of moisture to tap into.
Monday:  No.  Isolated heat of the day storms can’t be ruled out.  Otherwise, storm chances are less than 20%.  Greatest chance will be over our northern counties.
Tuesday:  Not during the day.  A few storms are possible Tuesday night.  Monitor updates.
Wednesday:  Storms are possible.    Lightning, heavy downpours, and gusty winds are possible.
Thursday:  No.
Friday:  No.
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  1.    Hot and humid conditions.
  2.    Locally heavy rain where thunderstorms do occur.
  3.    River flooding continues in many areas.  Low-land flooding.

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Sunday through Tuesday

  1.  Is lightning in the forecast?  Yes.  A few storms are possible on Sunday.  Isolated on Monday and increasing chances of lightning Tuesday night.
  2.  Is severe weather in the forecast?  Marginal risk.   Storms that form over the coming days could be locally intense with strong winds, heavy rain, and lightning.  Many areas will remain dry through Tuesday.  Increasing storm coverage Tuesday night.
    *  The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
  3. Is flash flooding in the forecast?  Monitor.  Where storms occur they could briefly cause enough rain to flood some commonly flooded roadways.  

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Wednesday through Saturday

  1. Is lightning in the forecast?  Yes.  Lightning is possible on Wednesday.  I am monitoring Friday night into Saturday.
  2. Is severe weather in the forecast?  Monitor.  Some storms could be intense on Wednesday.  It is possible the frontal boundary shifts far enough east late Tuesday night that rain chances will end by Wednesday.  For now, I have some storm chances continuing into Wednesday.  I am also monitoring Friday night and Saturday as another system approaches from the west. It is a bit early to know the track of that one.
    The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
  3. Is flash flooding in the forecast?  Monitor.  Some locally heavy rain will occur where thunderstorms form.

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Click here

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* The Missouri Bootheel includes Dunklin, New Madrid, and Pemiscot Counties
* Northwest Kentucky includes Daviess, Henderson, McLean Union, and Webster Counties

County Maps:  Click Here

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ATTENTION.  A major app update will be released soon.  Watch for announcements.

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Have there been any changes in the forecast over the last 24 hours?

No

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What changes might occur in the forecast?

I am closely monitoring a boundary that will be placed to our north.  This boundary will be the focus of heavy storms and rain.  The boundary is forecast to drop southward on Sunday.  If this happens then showers and storms would develop over portions of southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, and northwest Kentucky.  The southern edge will be determined by the strength of the outflow boundary.

The area is green stands the highest chance of showers and storms.  Areas further south should also monitor updates.  There could be storms there, as well.

This graphic is through Monday.

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May 26, 2019
Sunday’s
Forecast: Partly sunny.  A boundary could refire some thunderstorms.  The greatest chance will be from Bollinger County in southeast Missouri eastward to Pope County in southern Illinois and then east northeast into Kentucky.  South of that line the chances will be less.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel  90° to 92°     SE MO  86° to 90°     South IL  85° to 90°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  86° to 88°     West KY  86° to 92°    NW TN  90° to 92°
Wind direction and speed:  South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 18 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 88° to 96°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel  30%     Southeast MO  40%     IL  40%    Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  40%     Western KY  40%    NW TN 20%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roads and lightning.  A few storms could be intense.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
UV Index:  9 to 10 Very high
Sunrise:   5:38 AM
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Sunday night Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Warm.  Humid.  Patchy fog.  An isolated evening thunderstorm possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 70°     SE MO 68° to 70°     South IL  68° to 70°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  66° to 70°     West KY    68° to 70°    NW TN  70° to 72°
Wind direction and speed:  South at 4 to 6 mph with gusts to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 74°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel  10%     Southeast MO  20%    IL  20%    Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30%     Western KY  10%    NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation:  None to isolated (again north vs south)
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Monitor lower visibility if fog forms.  Lightning and wet roads.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but check radars.
Sunset:   8:06 PM
Moonrise: 1:42 AM
The phase of the moon: Last Quarter
Moonset:  12:33 PM

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May 27, 2019
Monday’s Forecast
:  Mostly sunny.  A few cumulus clouds.  Hot and humid.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (50% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel  88° to 92°     SE MO  88° to 92°     South IL  88° to 90°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  85° to 90°     West KY  86° to 90°    NW TN  88° to 92°
Wind direction and speed:  South and southwest at 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts possible.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 92° to 96°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel  0%     Southeast MO  10%     IL  10%     Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  10%     Western KY  0%    NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation:  Most likely none
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index:  10 to 11 Very high to extreme
Sunrise:   5:38 AM
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Monday night Forecast:  A few clouds.  Otherwise, clear.  Warm and humid.  Patchy fog.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium (50% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel  66° to 70°     SE MO 66° to 70°     South IL  66° to 70°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  66° to 70°     West KY    66° to 70°    NW TN    68° to 72°
Wind direction and speed:  South and southwest wind at 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 74°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel  0%     Southeast MO  10%     IL  20%     Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  20%     Western KY  0%     NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation:  Most likely none
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Monitor lower visibility if fog forms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset:   8:07 PM
Moonrise: 2:13 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
Moonset:  1:40 AM

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May 28, 2019.
Tuesday’s Forecast:  Mostly sunny during the morning.  Some afternoon cumulus clouds.  Warm and humid.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel  88° to 92°     SE MO  88° to 92°     South IL  84° to 88°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  84° to 88°     West KY  86° to 90°    NW TN  88° to 92°
Wind direction and speed:  Southwest winds at 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 86° to 94°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel  0%     Southeast MO  0%     IL  0%    Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  0%    Western KY  0%     NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation:  Most likely none.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index:  10 to 11 Very high to extreme
Sunrise:   5:37 AM
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Tuesday night Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Warm.  Humid. Scattered showers and thunderstorms developing from the west.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel  66° to 70°     SE MO 66° to 70°     South IL  66° to 70°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  66° to 70°     West KY    66° to 70°    NW TN    68° to 72°
Wind direction and speed:  South and southwest at 10 to 20 mph and gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 72°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel  40%     Southeast MO  40%    IL  40%    Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30%     Western KY  30%    NW TN  30%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation:  Increasing coverage west to east.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Gusty winds.  Locally heavy rain.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but check radars.
Sunset:   8:08 PM
Moonrise: 2:41 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
Moonset:  2:27 PM

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Wednesday:  Medium confidence.  Mostly cloudy with a 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms during the day and night.  High temperatures in the middle 80s.  Low temperatures in the middle 60s.  South and southwest winds at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 20 mph.
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Thursday
: Medium confidence.  Partly sunny.  A 60% chance of scattered thunderstorms during the day and a 30% chance at night.  Not as warm.  High temperatures in the lower to middle 80s.  Low temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s.  Northwest winds 8 to 16 mph.
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Friday: Medium confidence.   Mostly sunny.  Increasing clouds Friday night.  Mild.  High 80 to 85.  Low 58 to 64.  Northwest wind at 6 to 12 mph.

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Learn more about the UV index readings.  Click here.

Click to enlarge

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Wind forecast

See above

 

** NOTE **

A boundary will be located well to our north over the coming days.  It will slip a tad further south by Sunday.

The best chance of rain in our region will be our northern counties on Sunday.  Area-wide may have storms by Tuesday night and Wednesday.

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Graphic-cast

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** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION:  I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own.  Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above. 

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

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Missouri

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Illinois

** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION:  I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own.  Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above. 

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

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Kentucky

** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION:  I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own.  Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above. 

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

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Tennessee

** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION:  I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own.  Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above. 

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

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The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
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Sunday:  A few more thunderstorms are possible.  Mainly over our northern counties.  Storms could be intense if they do form.  Lightning is possible.  See the daily forecast above.

Monday:  Severe storms are not anticipated.

Tuesday:  Thunderstorms chances increase Tuesday night.  Some storms could be intense.

Wednesday: Monitor updates.  Intense storms are possible.

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Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk.  Yellow is a level two risk.  Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk.  Red is a level four (moderate) risk.  Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk.  Five is the highest risk.

Light green is not assigned a number.  Light green is where storms may occur but should be below severe levels.

A severe storm is one that produces 60 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.  One or more of those is defined as a severe thunderstorm.

The black outline is our local area.

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Tomorrow’s outlook.

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk.  Yellow is a level two risk.  Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk.  Red is a level four (moderate) risk.  Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk.  Five is the highest risk.  Light green is not assigned a number.

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Be sure and have WeatherOne turned on in your WeatherTalk accounts.  That is the one for tornadoes, severe storms, and winter storms.

Log into your www.weathertalk.com

Click the personal notification settings tab.

Turn on WeatherOne.  Green is on.  Red is off.

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Here is the latest graphic from the WPC/NOAA.

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24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Days one through seven added together.  Seven-day rainfall totals.

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  1.   Hot and humid.
  2.   MCS season
  3.   A boundary will be the focus for occasional showers and thunderstorms.
  4.   A cold front arrives on Tuesday night through Thursday.  Showers and thunderstorms.

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Current conditions.

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Happy Memorial Day Weekend, everyone!

I hope you and your family have a nice weekend.

It is going to be hot and humid.  I reserve the word hot for 90 and above.

Much of the region will range from 86 to 94 degrees tomorrow, Monday, and Tuesday.

Dew points will be high.  That means that it will feel muggy outside.  A summer-feel to the air.  Many of you have been asking for warmer weather.  Well, here it is!

We will have a boundary near the region on Sunday.  Think of boundaries as tiny cold fronts.  They can help focus new thunderstorm development during the heat of the day.

Thunderstorms that do form on Sunday could be strong with dime size hail, isolated 50 mph winds, frequent lightning, and torrential downpours.

Many locations may remain dry.  A few may end up under a soaker.

Confidence in thunderstorms forming is rather low.  Why?  The reason is that boundaries are extremely difficult to forecast.   They are basically where old showers and thunderstorms die off.  They leave a boundary.

Where storms die off late tonight and tomorrow morning will need to be monitored.

Chances in the green zone are higher than areas to the south.

That does not mean storms won’t occur outside the green zone.

There is a risk area-wide.

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Monitor updates on Sunday in case a few storms pop.

A cold front arrives by Tuesday night and that will mean increased chances of locally heavy thunderstorms Tuesday night into Thursday.   It will be somewhat cooler and less humid behind the front.

Long range.

A series of MCS’s may impact the region over the coming weeks.  This will be highly dependent on what happens with the ridge of high pressure to our south and east.  That ridge is responsible for the heat.

The ridge shuts down rain chances, as well.

We will have to watch the strength of the ridge.

Also, it is May.  We typically have a peak in severe thunderstorms during May.  The atmosphere tends to be quite unstable.  It does not take much to produce severe weather.

Adding to the complicated forecast will be periodic MCS’s.  MCS’s are large thunderstorm masses that deliver much of the summer precipitation to the Central United States.

These MCS’s can rapidly change a forecast.  They sometimes push further south and east than originally forecast.

 

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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page

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Again, as a reminder, these are models.  They are never 100% accurate.  Take the general idea from them.

Look for continuity among the models.  The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast.

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Here is the lower resolution NAM model and then the higher resolution NAM 3K below it.

You can see that over the next 48 hours most of the rain is well to our north.  These graphics are likely underdone when it comes to coverage to our north.

Widespread heavy rain is likely.

Timestamp upper left.

Click the animations to enlarge them.

Notice the boundaries.

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Here is the SPC WRF model.

 

These maps update several times a day.  Occasionally, in between updates, you may see a duplicate day or one out of sync.

Forty-eight-hour temperature outlook.

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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.

You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5.  You may also try restarting your browser.

Not working?  Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

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Live lightning data: Click here.

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool.  Click here.

College of Dupage satellites.  Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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Did you know that you can find me on Twitter?  Click here to view my Twitter weather account.

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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied the weather in our region since the late 1970s.  I have 40 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.

My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and a Bachelor of Science (BS).

I am an NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.  I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County rescue squad.  When asked, I assist Ballard and Massac Counties, as well.

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory  and WeatherTalk LLC.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.

I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

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A new weather podcast is now available! Weather Geeks (which you might remember is on The Weather Channel each Sunday)
To learn more visit their website. Click here.
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WeatherBrains Episode 696
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Tonight’s show features no guests – tonight’s show mainly focuses on the severe weather event of May 20th across the Plains States as well as discussing the accompanying “High Risk” issued by the Storm Prediction Center.Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:
  • How does the general public react to a “High Risk”?
  • The forecasting and leading up to 5/20/19 severe weather event
  • The dangers of hype and comparing different major severe weather events
  • Suptropical Storm Andrea forms in western Atlantic
  • Heavy snow in Colorado and higher elevations of Northern California
  • National Weather Round-Up
  • The Astronomy Report from Tony Rice
  • and more!

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Link to their website https://weatherbrains.com/

Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.

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Find Beau on Twitter!   Share your weather photos!  @beaudodson

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