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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Although there might be rain chances on and off from Tuesday into Memorial Day, that does not mean it will rain at your location every single day. There may be storms on radar each day. It is unlikely everyone will be impacted by storms each day.
I would not cancel a single plan from Tuesday through Memorial Day weekend. Not until the details of each day becomes clearer. There could be some strong storms from Tuesday into Memorial Day weekend. But, that is not unusual.
Simply monitor updates. I know it is a big holiday weekend in the region. I don’t want the chance for showers and storms to change your plans. At least not this far out. Let’s keep an eye on the forecast. I am sure there will be adjustments each day.
Wednesday Night – Partly cloudy. Thunderstorms are possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty winds near storms.
Temperatures: Lows in the 65-70 degree range
Winds: Winds south and southwest at 6-12 mph. Gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40%. There will be some activity in the region, but not everyone will experience storms. Same pretty much goes from now into at least Saturday.
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely. A few storms could be strong in the evening.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Thursday – Quite a few clouds. Warm. Thunderstorms possible. Muggier. Very heavy rain possible. Flash flooding is a concern.
What impact is expected? Wet roads. Lightning. Gusty winds near storms. Flash flooding.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 78-84 degree range. Temperatures on Thursday will be highly dependent on cloud cover. Less clouds and temperatures will rise into the 80s with ease.
Winds: South and southwest winds at 6-12 mph with gusts to 16 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 70%
Coverage of precipitation? Numerous.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates. A few storms could produce gusty winds. Severe weather risk should be low, but not zero. A few reports of hail possible, as well.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Thursday Night – Partly cloudy. Thunderstorms possible. Mild.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 66-72 degree range
Winds: Winds south and southwest at 5-10 mph. Gusts to 12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered or spotty
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars and updates.
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Friday – Partly sunny. Warm. Thunderstorms likely.
What impact is expected? Wet roads. Lightning. Gusty winds near storms. Heavy downpours.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 75-80 degree range. High temperatures on Friday will be highly dependent on cloud cover.
Winds: South and southwest winds at 6-12 mph with gusts to 18 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 50%-60%
Coverage of precipitation? Perhaps numerous.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars and updates.
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Friday Night – Partly cloudy. A few storms possible overnight.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty winds near storms.
Temperatures: Lows in the 65-70 degree range
Winds: Winds south and southwest at 5-10 mph. Gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars and updates.
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Saturday – Partly sunny. Very warm. A scattered thunderstorm possible. Lower confidence on Saturday.
What impact is expected? Wet roads. Lightning. Gusty winds near storms.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 80-85 degree range.
Winds: South and southwest winds at 6-12 mph. Gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Spotty
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars and updates.
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Saturday Night – Partly cloudy. Warm. Isolated thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty winds near storms.
Temperatures: Lows in the 65-70 degree range
Winds: Winds south and southwest at 5-10 mph. Gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Spotty
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars and updates.
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Sunday – Partly sunny. Very warm. Humid. An isolated thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roads. Lightning. Gusty winds near storms.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 84-88 range
Winds: Winds south and southwest at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%-20%
Coverage of precipitation? Spotty
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars and updates.
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Sunday Night – Partly cloudy. An isolated thunderstorm possible. Warm.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty winds near storms.
Temperatures: Lows in the 64-68 degree range
Winds: Winds south and southwest at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%-20%
Coverage of precipitation: Spotty
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars and updates.
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Monday ~ Memorial Day. – Partly sunny. Very warm. Humid. An isolated thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roads. Lightning. Gusty winds near storms.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 82-88 degree range.
Winds: South and southwest winds at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%-20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars and updates.
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Monday Night – Partly cloudy. An isolated thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 65-70 degree range
Winds: Winds south and southwest at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%-20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars and updates.
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Tuesday. – Partly sunny. Warm. A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roads. Lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 80-85 degree range.
Winds: South and southwest winds at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
Is severe weather expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Tuesday Night – Partly cloudy. A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 64-68 degree range
Winds: Winds south and southwest at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%-20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Wednesday. – Partly sunny. Warm. A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roads. Lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 82-86 degree range.
Winds: South and southwest winds at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation?
Is severe weather expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Wednesday Night – Partly cloudy. A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 64-68 degree range
Winds: Winds south and southwest at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Thursday. – Partly sunny.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 78-84 degree range.
Winds: South and southwest winds at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation?
Is severe weather expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Thursday Night – Partly cloudy.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: Lows in the 64-68 degree range
Winds: Winds south and southwest at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Friday. – Partly sunny.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 78-84 degree range.
Winds: South and southwest winds at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation?
Is severe weather expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Friday Night – Partly cloudy.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: Lows in the 64-68 degree range
Winds: Winds south and southwest at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
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Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities. Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate.
The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- Rinse and repeat forecast
- Warm and humid days ahead!
- Don’t cancel any holiday plans just because there is a thunderstorm in the forecast. This is a summer pattern.
Typical late spring and summer forecast. Scattered locally heavy thunderstorms with plenty of dry periods in between.
Parts of the region have picked up 3-4 inches of rain since Monday! Other locations have recorded zippo. Nada. No rain, at all. And, that is the pattern we will remain in over the coming days. Expect at least scattered showers and thunderstorms into next week.
There could be a couple of time periods where storms are a bit more active. One of those time periods might be Thursday afternoon and evening and again on Friday. This will need to be monitored. Nothing is clear cut in this atmosphere. The reason? The reason is because there are very small upper level disturbances moving through our region. Each one could trigger some thunderstorms. But, timing them is tricky, at best. And, these small disturbances rarely show up in guidance (models).
My best advice is to monitor short term forecasts and radars. Plan accordingly. Some very heavy rain totals are possible. If training storms occur then rain totals greater than 3″ will be possible.
If you are going to the lakes this weekend then pack the sun screen. Temperatures will soar into the 80s each day. Some guidance even shows middle to upper 80s. Humid, as well. High temperatures will be dependent on cloud cover. If we end up with more clouds than expected you can shave a good 4-8 degrees off the potential high temperature. Just keep that in mind.
I will keep Twitter and the Beau Dodson Weather Facebook page updated with fresh links. Also, be sure and sign up for the texting service. That is what supports all of this data.
The severe weather risk over the next few days will be fairly low. It might not be zero. It is May, after all. But, the wind fields are weak. CAPE numbers will be high. But, shear will be weak. And, that means that the severe weather risk will be low. I can’t rule out a few storms pulsing up to severe levels. The main concern would be down burst winds. Those are winds carried down from aloft in a thunderstorm. They can cause isolated wind gusts in excess of 60 mph. But, that would be the exception and certainly not the rule.
The main concern, over the coming days, will be cloud to ground lightning. And, the second concern would be locally heavy rain. These thunderstorms are prolific rain producers. Anywhere from 1-3″ per hour rain rates. If storms train over the same area then you can pick up a lot of rain. We have witnessed that over the last few days.
Radar
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Wednesday night: Thunderstorms are possible. Lightning and gusty winds being the main concern.
Thursday: Monitor updates. Thunderstorms are possible. Lightning and gusty winds being the main concern. Very heavy downpours.
Friday: Monitor updates. Thunderstorms are possible. Lightning is the main concern.
Friday night: Monitor updates. Thunderstorms are possible. Lightning is the main concern.
Saturday: Monitor updates. Thunderstorms are possible. Lightning is the main concern.
Sunday: Monitor updates. Thunderstorms are possible. Lightning is the main concern.
Monday: Monitor updates. Thunderstorms are possible. Lightning is the main concern.
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No major shifts in the forecast.
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I am concerned about thunderstorm chances over the next six days. We should experience several rounds of storms. Some of the storms could produce very heavy rain, frequent lightning, strong winds, and hail. There is at least some risk for a few severe thunderstorms. But, widespread severe thunderstorms are not currently anticipated. I would encourage you to monitor updated forecasts as we move through the coming days.
Lightning might be the main concern. Especially true for campers.
Flash flooding is also a concern.
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Monitor updates this week. You might throw an umbrella in the car. On and off thunderstorm chances will be with us through the upcoming weekend.
Cloud to ground lightning will be a concern for outdoor events.
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
