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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
Tuesday – Quite a few clouds with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible. Windy a times. Highs will be in the 70’s. Southeast to south winds at 10-20 mph with gusts above 20 mph. Chance of precipitation will be 40%.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? There should be some rain in the region. Have a plan B.
Morning School Bus Stop Weather – Some clouds. A chance for a shower or thunderstorm. Morning temperatures in the 70’s. Southeast winds at 5-10 mph.
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Afternoon School Bus Stop Weather – A thunderstorm possible. Temperatures will be in the upper 70’s to around 80°. Humid. South winds at 5-10 mph.
Tuesday night – A few scattered showers and thunderstorms possible. 30%-40% chance for precipitation. Lows in the 60’s.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Could be some showers and storms in the region
Wednesday – Warm and muggy. A 40% chance for scattered thunderstorms. Highs in the lower to middle 80’s. South and southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would not cancel any plans. But, monitor radars.
Wednesday night – Cloudy with some thunderstorms in the region. Lows in the 60’s to around 70 degrees. Southerly winds at 10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would not cancel any plans. But, monitor radars.
Thursday – Partly sunny and warm. Muggy. A thunderstorm possible. Highs in the 80’s. Southwest winds at 10-15 mph. Chance for rain at any given spot will be around 30%.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would not cancel any plans. But, monitor radars.
Sunrise and Sunset Times – Click Here
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by TransAmerica Agency Network Paducah District – you can visit their Facebook page here and their home page here
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Warm and muggy for Tuesday and Wednesday
2. Additional shower and thunderstorm chances
3. Locally heavy downpours in a few spots
Monday started out with widespread showers and heavy thunderstorms, but by mid to late morning most areas had dried out.
Much of Monday ended up pretty nice for the region (once the morning rain ended). At one time it appeared we would have widespread rain and storms through much of the day. Thankfully that did not happen.
Rainfall totals varied greatly from this last rain event. Some places picked up more than 2 inches of rain. Other areas picked up less than 0.50″.
Here are the rainfall totals for Sunday into early Monday morning. These are estimated rainfall totals based on radar. Scale is on the left side of the image.
The coming days will resemble a summer pattern. Warm and muggy conditions with periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms.
When you have thunderstorms in this type of air mass you can have locally heavy rain, frequent lightning, and gusty winds.
I am not expecting organized severe weather.
It will be warm through the week. When clouds aren’t lingering in the region you can expect 80’s.
The best chance of precipitation will likely be Monday night and Tuesday. Wednesday into Friday should bring scattered precipitation chances.
Here is the HRRR model for later Monday night into early Tuesday morning. See that large area of showers and storms moving into the region from the southwest? We will have to see how much of that holds together. That is the main thrust of precipitation. Future-cast radar images are from weatherbell.com
This first image is for 11 pm on Monday night
This next image is for around 5 am on Tuesday morning. The line should be weakening as it moves east/northeast
Another cold front will approach the region by the weekend. This will enhance shower and thunderstorm chances. A bit early to know the exact time period for the best chance of rain. I will work on that question as we move through the week.
Let’s look at these disturbances on the charts. Each disturbance will bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms. Timing them can be tricky.
It certainly won’t be raining all of the time and some places will miss out on precipitation Wednesday into Friday. But, a few showers and thunderstorms will appear on radar from time to time. If one of the disturbances is stronger than forecast then it will produce a bit more coverage than the others.
I circled the disturbance on the first map. The rest of the maps you can see the disturbances based on the first example.
This first map is for Tuesday morning at 7 am. The dark hatched area and colors represent high humidity levels in the atmosphere and lift. Thus, precipitation will be possible. Images are from wright-weather.com
This next image is for Tuesday afternoon around 10 am. The disturbance is moving eastward through our region. Showers and storms will be possible on Tuesday.
This next image is for Tuesday around 1 pm. You can see the bulk of the disturbance is shifting eastward.
This next image is for Wednesday afternoon. Some lift in the region. Summer type pattern as these disturbances move through the warm and humid atmosphere.
This next graphic is for Thursday morning. You can see another disturbance in the region. Can’t rule out some scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
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No major widespread concerns. The atmosphere will be juicy over the coming days. Any storms that form could produce gusty winds and perhaps even a report or two of severe weather. But, overall the severe weather risk is small at any given location.
Main concern would be some locally heavy rain and lightning.
Continued chance for some showers and thunderstorms into the upcoming work week. Keep an umbrella handy.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
The wild card tells you where the uncertainties are in the forecast
Wild card in this forecast – The wild card in Tuesday’s forecast will be the risk for a couple of severe thunderstorms in the region. Overall the risk appears small. Not overly concerned. Monitor any watches or warnings that might be issued.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level is TWO. I can’t rule out a storm or two producing gusty winds and even hail. Small risk for severe weather at any given location.
Anyone with outdoor events should monitor radars and lightning data. Even though a thunderstorm might not be severe, it could certainly cause problems if you have an outdoor sporting event or are camping.
Tuesday Severe Weather Outlook – Some thunderstorms possible
Wednesday Severe Weather Outlook – Some thunderstorms possible
Thursday Severe Weather Outlook – Some thunderstorms possible
Friday Severe Weather Outlook – Some thunderstorms possible
Saturday Severe Weather Outlook – Some thunderstorms possible
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
As we enter the late spring and summer months, keep in mind that slow moving thunderstorms can always produce locally heavy rainfall totals. This is no secret to all of you who are farmers. Your neighbors could pick up 1″ of rain from a thunderstorm, meanwhile you are sitting on dry ground. Forecasting exact rainfall totals during this time of the year can be tricky, at best.
Rainfall totals from Monday night into Wednesday morning should vary quite a bit, again.
This section of the blog is speculative forecast information. Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation. Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.
Highlights
1. Warm and muggy weather into Friday
2. A cold front with cooler temperatures in the long range
The rest of the week will be warm and muggy. It will feel a bit like summer at times. If we can clear the clouds from the area then temperatures will rise well into the 80’s.
Another cold front will push into the region by the weekend. Once the cold front arrives we will experience another round or two of thunderstorms.
Some of the long range charts bring a cooler and drier air mass into the region by late in the weekend and into next week.
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
For the most up to date maps – click here
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Please visit your local National Weather Service Office by clicking here. The National Weather Service Office, for our region, is located in Paducah, Kentucky. They have a lot of maps and information on their site. Local people…local forecasters who care about our region.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
This blog was inspired by ABC 33/40’s Alabama Weather Blog – view their blog
Current tower cam view from the Weather Observatory- Click here for all cameras.
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
The Weather Observatory
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
WSIL TV 3 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Illinois Road Conditions
Marion, Illinois
WPSD TV 6 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Kentucky Road Conditions & Kentucky Highway and Interstate Cameras
Downtown Paducah, Kentucky
Benton, Kentucky Tower Camera – Click here for full view
Benton, Kentucky
I24 Paducah, Kentucky
I24 Mile Point 9 – Paducah, KY
I24 – Mile Point 3 Paducah, Kentucky
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
