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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
I can’t rule out a few severe thunderstorm over the coming days. High winds and isolated tornadoes will be the main concern. The risk at any given location for severe weather is small, but not zero.
Monday – More clouds than sun. Gusty winds at times. A chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms. I am not forecasting an all day rain. I would not cancel plans. I would have a back up plan for the time periods that it does rain. Highs in the 70’s to lower 80’s. Gusty winds from the south at 10-20 mph. Gusts above 20 mph likely. Chance of precipitation 40%.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Monday night – Showers and thunderstorms possible. Lows in the 60’s. Southerly winds at 10-15 mph. Chance for precipitation 60%.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Tuesday – A mix of sun and clouds with a chance for showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the 70’s to lower 80’s. Southerly winds at 10-20 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Tuesday night – Some showers and thunderstorms possible. Lows in the 60’s and lower 70’s. South winds at 10-15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Wednesday – A mix of sun and clouds. A few scattered storms possible. Warm and humid. Highs in the 80’s with southerly winds at 10-15 mph. Gusty winds at times.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I can’t rule out some storms in the region.
Sunrise and Sunset Times – Click Here
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Scattered chances for showers and thunderstorms for much of the week ahead.
2. Severe weather risk is small, but it also isn’t zero.
3. Locally heavy rain in the coming 7 days.
I hope you are enjoying the holiday weekend. I know many of you have outdoor activities. Your main concern is rain and storms. The pick days of the week were Friday and Saturday. That forecast turned out to be accurate.
Sunday was forecast to bring a few scattered showers and storms. That also occurred. We had a few severe thunderstorms in the region, isolated. Wind damage was reported in several spots.
We will continue to have on and off chances for periods of showers and thunderstorms moving through the area as we push into Monday and Tuesday.
As I have been telling you all week…I would not cancel any events. I would simply monitor radars from time to time and have a plan B.
Monday will bring some morning showers and heavy thunderstorms in the area. This should push east during the day. That leaves us with warm and humid conditions. Additional showers and thunderstorms may form during the afternoon and evening hours.
Several disturbances will move through the region over the coming days. Each one could trigger a round of showers and storms.
Wind fields are not overly impressive. They are strong enough to possible produce a few high wind reports and even an isolated tornado. But, overall the risk is small.
Winds will be gusty over the coming days, as well. Boaters use care.
Locally heavy rain will likely occur with storms that train over the same areas.
Check out the rainfall totals from the past 30 days. Amazing totals across parts of the country.
Images are from weatherbell.com
Let’s take a look at the high temperature forecast.
Monday’s High Temperature Map
Tuesday’s High Temperature Map
Wednesday’s High Temperatures
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
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Locally heavy rain possible. Isolated severe weather is also possible. Threat at any given location is small.
Gusty winds over the coming days will also be possible.
The main concern will be scattered showers and thunderstorms into Tuesday. I can’t rule out an isolated severe thunderstorm. The overall risk is small.
Locally heavy rain is a concern. Moisture content in the atmosphere is high.
Gusty winds are likely into Tuesday.
It won’t rain all of the time. I would not cancel any plans. I would simply check radars over the coming days.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level is THREE for Monday into Tuesday. A few storms could produce high winds and even isolated tornadoes. The overall risk is small at any given location.
Anyone with outdoor events should monitor radars and lightning data. Even though a thunderstorm might not be severe, it could certainly cause problems if you have an outdoor sporting event or are camping.
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Monday Severe Weather Outlook – Thunderstorms likely. Monitor updates.
Tuesday Severe Weather Outlook – Thunderstorms possible. Monitor updates.
Wednesday Severe Weather Outlook – Thunderstorms possible
Thunderstorm outlook for Monday into Tuesday will be a THREE
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
As we enter the late spring and summer months, keep in mind that slow moving thunderstorms can always produce locally heavy rainfall totals. This is no secret to all of you who are farmers. Your neighbors could pick up 1″ of rain from a thunderstorm, meanwhile you are sitting on dry ground. Forecasting exact rainfall totals during this time of the year can be tricky, at best.
Rainfall totals through Tuesday will vary greatly. 0.50″-1.00″ will be possible at many locations with pockets of 1-3 inches.
These are the official forecast totals from Sunday night into Wednesday morning. Of course, totals will vary greatly.
Then through next Monday
This section of the blog is speculative forecast information. Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation. Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.
Highlights
1. Wednesday into Friday will be warm with scattered showers/storms
2. Long range. I am forecasting above normal precipitation well into June.
The emphasis on today’s long range forecast will be warm and muggy conditions for most of the new work week. There will also be some scattered chances for showers and thunderstorms. Almost a summer type pattern.
Any thunderstorms that form could produce very heavy rain and gusty winds. Isolated severe thunderstorm risk. Air mass will be unstable. Wind fields will be weak.
Peak timing of precipitation chances from Wednesday into Friday will likely be afternoon hours…peak heating time.
Another cold front may push into the region on Saturday and Sunday. This will enhance thunderstorm chances. Still several days to monitor the forecast.
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
For the most up to date maps – click here
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Please visit your local National Weather Service Office by clicking here. The National Weather Service Office, for our region, is located in Paducah, Kentucky. They have a lot of maps and information on their site. Local people…local forecasters who care about our region.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
This blog was inspired by ABC 33/40’s Alabama Weather Blog – view their blog
Current tower cam view from the Weather Observatory- Click here for all cameras.
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
The Weather Observatory
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
WSIL TV 3 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Illinois Road Conditions
Marion, Illinois
WPSD TV 6 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Kentucky Road Conditions & Kentucky Highway and Interstate Cameras
Downtown Paducah, Kentucky
Benton, Kentucky Tower Camera – Click here for full view
Benton, Kentucky
I24 Paducah, Kentucky
I24 Mile Point 9 – Paducah, KY
I24 – Mile Point 3 Paducah, Kentucky
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
