Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. 

Scroll down to see your local forecast details.

Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region.  Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

48-hour forecast Graphics

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Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities).  Your location will be comparable.

Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.

The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.

The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what  year that occurred, as well.

It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.

It shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).

It shows you the average precipitation for today.  Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.

It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.

The sunrise and sunset are also shown.

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Note:  It certainly won’t rain all of the time into Sunday, but there will be showers and storms on radar through at least Sunday night.

There will be plenty of dry periods, as well.  If you have outdoor plans, then monitor updates.  Severe thunderstorms will be possible over the coming days.  Peak severe weather chances will be Sunday and Sunday night.

Friday Forecast:   Partly sunny.  A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70%
Southern Illinois ~ 70%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 70%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~  70%
Northwest Tennessee ~  70%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 82° to 85°
Southeast Missouri ~ 82° to 85°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 82° to 85°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 82° to 85°
Southern Illinois ~ 82° to 85°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 82° to 85°
Far western Kentucky ~ 82° to 85°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 82° to 85°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 82° to 85°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 82° to 85°
Winds will be from this direction: South 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:  82° to 85°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Some storms could be intense.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updated forecasts and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
UV Index:  7. High.
Sunrise: 5:40 AM
Sunset: 8:05  PM
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Friday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy.  A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~  40%
Northwest Tennessee ~  40%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 65°
Southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 65°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 64° to 68°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 62° to 65°
Southern Illinois ~ 62° to 65°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 62° to 65°
Far western Kentucky ~ 62° to 65°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 62° to 65°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 62° to 65°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 63° to 66°
Winds will be from this direction:  South 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways and lightning.  Some storms could be intense.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updated forecasts and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
Moonrise: 9:47 PM
Moonset: 6:03  AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

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Saturday Forecast:   Partly sunny.  A chance of mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~  20%
Northwest Tennessee ~  30%
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Before 6 am and after 12 pm
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 82° to 85°
Southeast Missouri ~ 82° to 85°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 82° to 85°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 82° to 85°
Southern Illinois ~ 82° to 85°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 82° to 85°
Far western Kentucky ~ 82° to 85°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 82° to 85°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 82° to 85°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 82° to 85°
Winds will be from this direction: South 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:  82° to 85°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updated forecasts and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
UV Index:  9, Very high.
Sunrise: 5:39 AM
Sunset: 8:06  PM
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Saturday Night Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  A chance of showers and thunderstorms.  Some storms could be severe late at night.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~  40%
Northwest Tennessee ~  40%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.  More likely after midnight.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 65°
Southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 65°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 64° to 68°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 62° to 65°
Southern Illinois ~ 62° to 65°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 62° to 65°
Far western Kentucky ~ 62° to 65°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 62° to 65°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 62° to 65°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 63° to 66°
Winds will be from this direction:  South southeast 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways and lightning.  Some storms could be severe.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updated forecasts and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
Moonrise: 10:47 PM
Moonset: 6:54  AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

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Sunday Forecast:   Partly sunny.  Showers and thunderstorms likely.  Some could be severe.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 70%
Southeast Missouri ~ 70%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70%
Southern Illinois ~ 70%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 70%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~  70%
Northwest Tennessee ~  60%
Coverage of precipitation:  Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 78° to 82°
Southeast Missouri ~ 78° to 82°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 78° to 82°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 78° to 82°
Southern Illinois ~ 78° to 82°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 78° to 82°
Far western Kentucky ~ 78° to 82°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~78° to 82°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 78° to 82°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 78° to 82°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 10 to 20 mph.  Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 78° to 82°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Some storms could be severe.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates.
UV Index:  7, High.
Sunrise: 5:38 AM
Sunset: 8:07  PM
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Sunday Night Forecast:  Partly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 70%
Southeast Missouri ~ 70%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70%
Southern Illinois ~ 70%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 70%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~  70%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~  70%
Northwest Tennessee ~  70%
Coverage of precipitation:  Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 55° to 60°
Southeast Missouri ~ 55° to 60°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 55° to 60°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 55° to 60°
Southern Illinois ~ 55° to 60°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 55° to 60°
Far western Kentucky ~ 55° to 60°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 55° to 60°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 55° to 60°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 55° to 60°
Winds will be from this direction:  South southwest becoming west 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 55° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways and lightning.  Some storms could be severe.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B and monitor updates.
Moonrise: 11:39 PM
Moonset: 7:54  AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

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First off, it won’t rain all of the time.  Yes, there are chances of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast today through at least Sunday night.  Perhaps into Monday night.

There will be plenty of dry time, as well.

Radar will likely have scattered showers and thunderstorms on it during just about any 12 hour time-frame.  But, again…it won’t rain all of the time.

It is a holiday weekend and many people have plans.  My best advice is to monitor updated forecasts.  Monitor watches and warnings via your Beau Dodson Weather App.  Monitor the Beau Dodson Radars.

Then, go about your  business.  If storm clouds threaten, then move inside or to a safer location.

I am concerned about campers into the weekend.  Use care and stay weather aware.

We have a daily risk of severe weather through at least Sunday night.

A severe weather outbreak is possible Sunday and Sunday night.  This is when peak severe weather chances will develop with a regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms expected.

It is too soon to know if a tornado outbreak will occur.

We are already in a level three out of five severe weather risk for Sunday and Sunday night.

Friday and Friday night

The above is the latest severe weather outlook from the Storm Prediction Center.  The yellow is the level two severe weather risk.  The dark green is a level one risk.  The scale goes from the low of one to a high of five.

Additional thunderstorms are possible this morning and afternoon.  Some of the storms could perk up to severe levels with the primary concern being damaging wind and hail.  It will be warm and humid.

Again, it won’t rain all of the time.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms will dot the radar.

One band of showers and thunderstorms will move northeast through this morning from northeast Arkansas and southern Missouri.  Those storms will likely remain below severe levels, but could produce heavy rain and gusty wind.  Small hail, as well.

The atmosphere will become increasingly unstable as we move through the afternoon and evening hours.  A cold front will approach from the west.

New storms will form along that front.  Perhaps a line or broken line of storms.  This will be the time-frame of greatest severe weather concerns.

Some of the storms could produce damaging wind, hail, and even a tornado or two.  Stay weather aware later today and tonight.  Watches and warnings will be possible.

I will likely start a severe weather thread over on Facebook.

Saturday and Saturday night

A low end chance of thunderstorms during the day Saturday with increasing chances late Saturday night.

If storms form late Saturday night, then they could produce high wind and hail.  The tornado risk will remain low.

Most of Saturday should be dry.

An increasing chances of thunderstorms late Saturday night as a cold front nears our region.  I can’t rule out severe thunderstorms late Saturday night.  Stay weather aware Saturday night and Sunday.

Sunday into Sunday night

The graphic below shows the Storm Prediction Center’s latest severe weather outlook.

The dark orange zone is the highest risk zone.  A level three risk.  It has shifted north northeast by a few counties, but still does capture quite a bit of our region.

On Sunday, a severe weather outbreak is likely in the region.  The Storm Prediction Center and the National Weather Service is forecasting an outbreak of severe weather.

The concern will be damaging wind, large hail, and tornadoes.  Rumors of a tornado outbreak are just that…rumors, for now.

It is too early to know if a tornado outbreak will occur.  Yes, tornadoes are possible.  We need to draw a bit closer to the event to determine the extent of the threat.

If we have numerous showers and thunderstorms before noon, then the risk during the afternoon could be lower.  On the other hand, if we clear out and the atmosphere recharges, then severe weather will be likely during the afternoon and evening hours.  Into Sunday night, perhaps.

The bottom line is that you should be weather aware Sunday and Sunday night.  Severe storms are likely.  The atmosphere will be unstable.

Monday and Monday night

Model data diverges during this time-frame.  One set of models is showing additional severe thunderstorm chances into Monday afternoon and evening.  Other data shows it dry.

We will have to monitor the track of the cold front Sunday night to determine whether storm chances will continue into Monday.  Monitor updates if you have outdoor activities.

Tuesday into Friday

Dry conditions are likely Tuesday and Wednesday.   Additional storms may move in from the northwest Thursday and Friday of next week.

—->  I will be off work the first week of June. 

I am taking my dad to Normandy, France for the 80th anniversary of D-Day.  During that time, I will be away from the computer.  Just a heads up!

My Great Uncle, Robert Dodson, was a meteorologist who parachuted in to forecast for D-Day and Operation Overlord.  We are going over to commemorate the event.

Staff Sergeant Robert A. Dodson enlisted in the Army in August 1941 and trained as a weather observer at New Orleans Army Bomber Base in September 1941.

In April 1944, Sergeant Dodson was assigned to the 21st Weather Squadron in Ascot, England and a month later he volunteered jump school training.  As his paperwork was being processed, the jump school was shut down in preparation for “D-Day”.  Undaunted, Sergeant Dodson and his commanding officer convinced the 82nd Airborne Division, located at Manchester, England, to make room for one more soldier.  Sergeant Dodson became a member of an Air Support Party from Ninth Air Force attached to Headquarters, 82nd Airborne Division, which consisted of an Officer in Charge, five communications men who acted as forward air controllers, a driver, and a weather observer, equipped with a half-track and a “veep” (radio equipped jeep).   Sergeant Dodson received a minimum of mock-up training before making his first and only jump.

At 0230hrs on 6 June 1944, Sergeant Dodson jumped with Force “A” of the 82nd Airborne Division commanded by Brigadier General James M. Gavin.  The sky was moonlit and practically clear when he landed about a mile northeast of St. Mere Eglise, France in a field where cattle were grazing.  One other man had landed in the same field with him and the two of them set out at once toward the head of the stick, in spite of a knee injury Sergeant Dodson sustained during the jump.  As they proceeded they picked up eight other members of their outfit one at a time.  Things were progressing according to schedule and they had yet to make contact with the enemy.  They found three injured men along the way, gave them first aid, and continued on.  Along the way they recovered their equipment which they unpacked, selected a VHF radio, and camouflaged the rest of the equipment in a hedgerow before finally linking up with the command post which had relocated to St. Mere Eglise.

The Germans counterattacked, and during thirty-six hours all members of the Air Support Party acted as riflemen.  When the siege was lifted, Sergeant Dodson began his weather observing duties.  Each hour he sent by radio the present weather, wind direction and speed, visibility, ceiling and cloud heights, temperature, and dew point.  For the last elements he was equipped with a shielded psychrometer and psychometric tables, while all other elements were determined visually.  This work continued until 21 June, when Sergeant Dodson was evacuated to the hospital at Bouteville for treatment on the knee he injured during the jump.  He later returned to his unit, which returned to England when it was relieved on 13 July.  Sergeant Dodson, who made his first trip to France during the war with a parachute as a weather observer with the 82nd Airborne Division, returned to France with the headquarters of Ninth Air Force and the 21st Weather Squadron, serving out the rest of the war as chief dispatcher at the motor pool.  He left the service in September 1945.

Sergeant  Dodson’s military decorations include the Bronze Star Medal,  Purple Heart, Europe-Africa-Middle East Campaign medal with 4 bronze service stars (for the Normandy, Northern France, Rhineland and Central Europe campaigns), American Defense Service Medal, and Distinguished Unit Citation.  The Air Weather Service recognized Sergeant Dodson’s World War II service in July 1987 by naming its Specialized Support Award in his honor.

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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables.  Click here.

Day One Severe Weather Outlook

Day One Severe Weather Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One Tornado Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Tornado Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Hail Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One High wind Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.  Day two outlook.

Day Two Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

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This  animation is the NAM Model.

This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like.  Each model may be a little different.  The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1  PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1  AM

Double click images to enlarge them.

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This  animation is the FV3 Model.

This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like.  Each model may be a little different.  The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.

Green is rain.  Yellow and orange are heavier rain.  Pink is a wintry mix.  Blue is snow.  Dark blue is heavier snow.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1  PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1  AM

Double click images to enlarge them.

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This  animation is the HRRR Model.

This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like.  Each model may be a little different.  The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.

Green is rain.  Yellow and orange are heavier rain.  Pink is a wintry mix.  Blue is snow.  Dark blue is heavier snow.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1  PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1  AM

Double click images to enlarge them.

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This  animation is the GFS Model.

This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like.  Each model may be a little different.  The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.

Green is rain.  Yellow and orange are heavier rain.  Pink is a wintry mix.  Blue is snow.  Dark blue is heavier snow.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1  PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1  AM

Double click images to enlarge them.

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This  animation is the EC Model.

This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like.  Each model may be a little different.  The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.

Green is rain.  Yellow and orange are heavier rain.  Pink is a wintry mix.  Blue is snow.  Dark blue is heavier snow.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1  PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1  AM

Double click images to enlarge them.

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 75 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 54 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.60″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 76 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 54 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.60″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

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Live lightning data: Click here.

Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99

Our new Zoom radar with storm chases

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool.   Click here.

College of DuPage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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