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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Monday Night – Partly cloudy.
What impact is expected? None. Small chance for a storm over western parts of southeast Missouri late tonight.
Temperatures: Lows in the 56-62 degree range
Winds: Winds south and southeast at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%-20% western and northwestern counties (SE MO/SW IL)
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Although there might be rain chances on and off from Tuesday into Memorial Day, that does not mean it will rain at your location every single day. There may be storms on radar each day. It is unlikely everyone will be impacted by storms each day.
I would not cancel a single plan from Tuesday through Memorial Day weekend. Not until the details of each day becomes clearer. There could be some strong storms from Tuesday into Memorial Day weekend. But, that is not unusual.
Simply monitor updates. I know it is a big holiday weekend in the region. I don’t want the chance for showers and storms to change your plans. At least not this far out. Let’s keep an eye on the forecast. I am sure there will be adjustments each day.
Tuesday – A mix of sun and clouds. Partly sunny. Warm. A few showers and thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 76-84 degree range. Highs on Tuesday will depend on cloud cover.
Winds: South and southwest winds at 6-12 mph with gusts to 20 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Tuesday Night – Partly cloudy. Scattered thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 64-68 degree range
Winds: Winds south and southwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Wednesday – Partly sunny. Warm. Thunderstorms possible. Some storms could be intense. Breezy. Muggier.
What impact is expected? Wet roads. Lightning. Gusty winds. Monitor updates.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 75-80 degree range. If clouds are not great then high temperatures will range from 80-84.
Winds: South and southwest winds at 12-24 mph. Gusty winds.
What is the chance for precipitation? 50%-60%
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates. Severe storms are possible.
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to perhaps numerous
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but I would monitor updated forecasts. Rain is possible.
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Wednesday Night – Partly cloudy. Thunderstorms possible. Humid.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty winds. A few storms could be intense.
Temperatures: Lows in the 64-68 degree range
Winds: Winds south and southwest at 6-12 mph. Gusts to 18 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Is severe weather expected? Strong storms are a possibility. Monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Thursday – Partly sunny. Warm. Thunderstorms possible. Muggier.
What impact is expected? Wet roads. Lightning. Gusty winds.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 78-84 degree range. Temperatures on Thursday will be highly dependent on cloud cover.
Winds: South and southwest winds at 6-12 mph with gusts to 20 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-50%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to perhaps numerous.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Thursday Night – Partly cloudy. Thunderstorms possible. Mild.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 66-72 degree range
Winds: Winds south and southwest at 5-10 mph. Gusts to 12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Friday – Partly sunny. Warm. A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roads. Lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 75-80 degree range. High temperatures on Friday will be highly dependent on cloud cover.
Winds: South and southwest winds at 6-12 mph with gusts to 20 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Friday Night – Partly cloudy. A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 65-70 degree range
Winds: Winds south and southwest at 5-10 mph. Gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Saturday – Partly sunny. Warm. A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roads. Lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 80-85 degree range.
Winds: South and southwest winds at 6-12 mph. Gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Saturday Night – Partly cloudy. A thunderstorm possible. Warm.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 65-70 degree range
Winds: Winds south and southwest at 5-10 mph. Gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Sunday – Partly sunny. Warm. A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roads. Lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 80-85 range
Winds: Winds south and southwest at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Sunday Night – Partly cloudy. A thunderstorm possible. Warm.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 65-70 degree range
Winds: Winds south and southwest at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Monday ~ Memorial Day. – Partly sunny. Warm. A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roads. Lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 80-85 degree range.
Winds: South and southwest winds at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation?
Is severe weather expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Monday Night – Partly cloudy. A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 65-70 degree range
Winds: Winds south and southwest at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Tuesday. – Partly sunny. Warm. A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roads. Lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 82-86 degree range.
Winds: South and southwest winds at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation?
Is severe weather expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Tuesday Night – Partly cloudy. A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 64-68 degree range
Winds: Winds south and southwest at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
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Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities. Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate.
The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- Warmer temperatures are on the way. Muggy, at times.
- Increasing chances for showers and locally heavy thunderstorms.
- The holiday weekend forecast is a warm one with perhaps a few storms. Don’t cancel any plans based on the forecast. Just, monitor updates.
Well, the new work week started off nice. Warm temperatures and plenty of sunshine. No complaints!
The weather is going to become increasingly unsettled as we move through the week. There will be on and off shower and thunderstorm chances. A few scattered storms are possible as early as Monday night across southeast Missouri. And, widely scattered thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday.
Upper level disturbances will move through our region just about daily into the weekend. Each one could spark a round of precipitation in and near our local area.
One time frame of interest will be Wednesday and Wednesday night. It is perhaps this time that our chances for precipitation will peak. The atmosphere will be quite unstable on Wednesday. CAPE values will likely top 3000. Lift index values will fall below negative five. There will be some lift. A complex of thunderstorms is expected to form to our north and west and then move into our local area. Thunderstorms on Wednesday into Wednesday night could be intense. I can’t rule out some reports of severe weather. Remember, severe weather is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Perhaps the greater risk on Wednesday will be over Missouri and Illinois. But, closely monitor updates across the entire region.
The tornado risk this week is low, but not zero. Wind shear won’t be all that great in this pattern. Higher wind shear would mean greater severe weather chances. If there were to be a tornado then it would most likely occur near old thunderstorm boundaries. That normally is a now-cast situation. Meaning impossible to forecast until thunderstorms form.
There will be a lot of moisture in the atmosphere. Slow moving thunderstorms could drop 1-3″ of rain per hour. Hopefully the storms will not linger over one area. I am concerned that some training will occur. If training does occur then some flash flood warnings might have to be issued. Copious amounts of moisture with training storms would equal very heavy rainfall rates. Training is where storms repeatedly move over the same area. Avoid flooded roadways. Also, use care on swollen streams and rivers.
But, where? That is the problem with this type of atmosphere. Scattered thunderstorms or these thunderstorm complexes won’t necessarily impact everyone. Typical for this time of the year.
PWAT values are going to be well above normal. PWAT is a measure of moisture in the entire atmospheric column from the surface well into the thousands of feed above the surface. The higher number represent the potential for very heavy downpours.
Here are the Wednesday and Thursday numbers. The yellow colors represent a LOT of moisture available for thunderstorms to tap into.
Wednesday’s PWAT values. Image is from WeatherBell.com
What are PWAT values? Great question! I found this blog post that explains it quite well. Click here for more information on PWAT values.
and Thursday
I would not be a bit surprised if someone picks up more than three inches of rain during the next seven days.
Here are the CAPE values for Wednesday and Thursday. Lot of energy in the atmosphere. But, not a lot of wind shear. That is the saving grace with this setup. The situation does favor MCS’s. Those are large thunderstorm complexes that begin forming during the afternoon hours and typically last into the night. They can look very impressive on IR satellite images. What is a Mesoscale Convective System? Large thunderstorm complexes that form in the late spring and summer months. Here is a great educational lesson on this topic…click here
Wednesday afternoon CAPE. Image is from WeatherBell.com
What are CAPE values and what do they mean in relation to severe weather? I found a great post about CAPE values and this should explain it. For you go-getter weather enthusiasts – click here
Thursday CAPE
It is a messy forecast this week. I would not cancel any outdoor activities. I would, however, closely monitor updated forecasts. It is not going to rain all of the time. It won’t rain every single day in the same locations. If you have camping plans then make sure you have several sources for information. Don’t forget you can find me on Twitter under Beaudodson. Also, on YouTube under BeauDodson. Be weather aware over the coming seven days. I know it is a busy time of the year for outdoor activities.
I will be Tweeting out radar images, links, loop, and fresh information. And, same for the Beau Dodson Weather Facebook page.
It will become quite warm this week. By the end of the week we should see temperatures rise into the middle 80s. Cloud cover will be the wild card with temperature forecasts. If we can avoid the clouds then some locations will likely top 85 degrees by Friday into Monday. Some guidance even shows upper 80s. But, let’s not get carried away. Warm, either way.
Bottom line: Some storms possible this week. Don’t cancel plans. Monitor the day by day forecasts. Check back often. Monitor your Interactive City View Radars.
It has been brought to my attention that people are looking at their APP’s and seeing thunderstorm symbols every single day. And, in turn, people are telling other people that this week and the holiday weekend is a wash out.
This could be nothing further from the truth.
Yes, there will be at least “some” chance for showers and thunderstorms over the next 6-8 days. But, the chances will vary greatly throughout the region. Typical late spring and early summer weather pattern.
There will be time periods when precipitation will be greater in coverage than other times. It is these time periods that you need to be more concerned about. And, forecasters are going to struggle with timing these very small disturbances that will move through the region.
Some guidance produces a lot more rain than other guidance.
It may rain every single day somewhere in southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee. But, it won’t rain everywhere every single day.
If you are camping then monitor updated forecasts. Plan on at least some shower and thunderstorm activity in the region. Lightning would be one concern and locally heavy rain would be another concern.
This is the advice I am giving everyone. I know this is a very busy week with field trips, end of school activities, graduations, camping, and other holiday festivities. Do not cancel your plans. But, monitor forecasts and radars.
There certainly will be time periods where plans will need to be adjusted. If you have an outdoor wedding or event then have a solid plan B.
I will update several times each day with fresh information.
I am concerned that a lot of people are changing plans based on their app’s.
With all of the above said, there will be several rounds of thunderstorms to deal with over the coming days.
The overall severe thunderstorm risk isn’t large. But, a few storms could become severe. I am expecting a few storms to produce hail and high winds. The tornado risk is low, but not zero. Heavy downpours are likely where storms occur.
I am centering in on Wednesday as one of the days where wind fields will be a little bit stronger. Thus, if we were to have some severe storms then that would be one of the days to monitor.
Beyond Wednesday the confidence level drops dramatically. Often times these warm and humid air masses can produce pop up thunderstorms that move slowly, but produce quite a bit of rain.
Radar
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Monday: No severe weather
Monday night: No severe weather anticipated
Tuesday: Monitor updates. Some thunderstorms are possible. Lightning is the main concern.
Tuesday night: Some thunderstorms are possible. Lightning is the main concern.
Wednesday: Monitor updates. Severe storms can’t be ruled out.
Wednesday night: Storms are possible. A few severe storms can’t be ruled out.
Thursday: Monitor updates. Strong storms are possible.
Friday: Monitor updates. Thunderstorms are possible.
Friday night: Monitor updates. Thunderstorms are possible.
Saturday: Monitor updates. Thunderstorms are possible.
Sunday: Monitor updates. Thunderstorms are possible.
Monday: Monitor updates. Thunderstorms are possible.
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No major shifts in the forecast. Temperatures will be problematic. Cloud cover will hold temperatures down a bit. When clouds are not an issue then temperatures will have no problem popping above 80 degrees. I suspect if there are forecast issues it will center around trying to get the high temperature correct for any given location.
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I am concerned about thunderstorm chances over the next six days. We should experience several rounds of storms. Some of the storms could produce very heavy rain, frequent lightning, strong winds, and hail. There is at least some risk for a few severe thunderstorms. I would encourage you to monitor updated forecasts as we move through the coming days.
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Monitor updates this week. You might throw an umbrella in the car. On and off thunderstorm chances will be with us through the upcoming weekend.
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
