2 PM
Increased highs into the middle 80’s. Sun is helping to warm things up quite nicely.
Expect some scattered storms this afternoon.
Better chances tonight.
Heavy rain also possible on Tuesday…looking over new data.
9 AM Update
Lake wind advisory in effect into this evening.
Isolated severe storms can’t be ruled out. High winds and isolated tornadoes are the main concern. Concern at any given location is small. The overall severe weather threat is minimal, but not zero. This concern will continue into at least Tuesday.
Best chances for widespread rain will arrive tonight (Sunday night).
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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
Lake wind advisory through at least today. Gusty winds on Monday, as well.
I can’t rule out a few severe thunderstorm over the coming days. High winds and isolated tornadoes will be the main concern.
Sunday – Some morning clouds and then partly sunny over much of the region. Gusty winds at times. More clouds over western counties. A 30% chance for showers and/or thunderstorms over southern Illinois and western Kentucky/northwest Tennessee. A 40%-50% chance for our western counties in southeast Missouri. High temperatures will be in the 80’s. Gusty southerly winds at 10-20 mph. Gusts above 20 mph likely.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Might be some storms in the region. Have a plan B
Sunday night – Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Milder. Windy, at times. Lows in the 60’s with southerly winds at 10-20 mph. Gusts above 20 mph at times. Chance for precipitation 60%-70%.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Monday – More clouds than sun. Gusty winds at times. A decent chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms. I do not believe it will rain all day. I would not cancel plans. I would have a back up plan for the time periods that it does rain. Highs in the 70’s to lower 80’s. Gusty winds from the south at 10-20 mph. Gusts above 20 mph likely. Chance of precipitation 70%.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Monday night – Showers and thunderstorms still possible. Lows in the 60’s. Southerly winds at 10-15 mph. Chance for precipitation 40%.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Sunrise and Sunset Times – Click Here
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Increasing chances for precipitation as we move into Sunday and Monday. Highest chances on Sunday night and Monday
2. There could be some gusty winds Sunday into Monday
3. Late this week it will be very warm
I hope you are enjoying the holiday weekend. Saturday brought nice weather to the region. Really can’t beat this weather for late May. Campers must be enjoying it.
There were a few surprise sprinkles on Saturday morning between 3 am and 9 am. The models showed this well, but I was thinking that perhaps the models were overdoing it just a little bit. In the end there were a few reports of very light rain on Saturday morning.
A series of upper level disturbances will push into the region starting late tonight and continuing into at least Monday night and Tuesday.
Each disturbance will bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms.
You can see those disturbances on these maps. The hatched area is higher humidity and areas of lift. That means precipitation. When you see the bright colors (yellow, orange, red) that means even better chances for showers and heavy thunderstorms.
Let’s walk through some of the disturbances
These images are from wright-weather.com
The first image is for 10 pm on Sunday night. 9 pm to 11 pm. That is a strong area of lift and moisture. There could be some heavy storms on Sunday evening. Something to monitor.
This next image (below) is for around 1 am to 3 am on Sunday night/Monday morning. Lot of moisture and lift over the region. Good chance for precipitation
Then for early Monday morning 2 am to 4 am. Dark hatched area over our region…continued lift and precipitation chances.
By 10 am to 12 pm on Monday the lift shifts a bit eastward. If that happens then our eastern counties will have better chances for precipitation vs western counties. The darker hatch area represents better lift and moisture.
Then by 11 am to 2 pm our western counties might be mostly dry. But, moisture and lift continues over our eastern counties.
Late Monday afternoon there are some questions about how much precipitation will be left in the area as the better lift moves east. Let’s hope. That would mean some dry periods of time. We will see how it goes. Timing these disturbances is tricky, at best. Bottom line is that we will have to deal with showers and storms on Monday from time to time.
Notice how the best lift shifts eastward.
The good news is that Sunday will not be a wash out. The best chances for precipitation on Sunday will be over our western counties in southeast Missouri. Chances over southern Illinois and western Kentucky will be lower (say 30%-40%).
Sunday night into Monday will bring much higher precipitation chances. More like 60%-70%. Locally heavy rain will be possible with thunderstorms. Gusty winds, as well.
It does not look like Monday will be a wash out. Periods of scattered precipitation.
Severe weather risk appears small, but is definitely not zero. High winds and even isolated tornadoes are possible. That is good news. Heavy rain risk for some locations will be fairly high.
Lightning is a concern, as always, for outdoor events. Have a plan B on Sunday night and Monday.
Gusty winds from the south will blow at speeds of 10-20 mph on Sunday night into Monday.
Temperatures will be mild through the period. Clouds will keep temperatures a little lower on Monday. We would have widespread 80’s. Clouds might keep us in the upper 70’s.
Rain chances will continue into at least Monday night and perhaps Tuesday. See the extended discussion further down in the blog for details on the long range.
Let’s take a look at the high temperature forecast.
Sunday’s High Temperature Map
Monday’s High Temperature Map
Tuesday’s High Temperature Map
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
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Obviously the concerns will center around Thunderstorm chances and rain for outdoor events. Decent shot at precipitation on radar Sunday into Monday night. The most widespread activity will be Sunday night into Monday.
Wind shear is sufficient for a few reports of high winds and isolated tornadoes. Small risk, overall…at any given location
New data indicates scattered showers and thunderstorms on Monday (vs widespread and all day rain). It does not look like it will be an all day rain. I would not cancel any plans.
Gusty winds on Sunday into Monday
Thunderstorms will be a concern, especially on Sunday night and Monday. Lightning and gusty winds. Heavy rain with thunderstorms. Isolated severe storms possible through the week.
Gusty winds at times from Sunday into Monday.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level is THREE for Sunday and Monday. A few storms could produce high winds and even isolated tornadoes.
Anyone with outdoor events should monitor radars and lightning data. Even though a thunderstorm might not be severe, it could certainly cause problems if you have an outdoor sporting event or are camping.
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Sunday Severe Weather Outlook – Showers and some thunderstorms possible. Monitor updates.
Monday Severe Weather Outlook – Thunderstorms likely. Monitor updates.
Tuesday Severe Weather Outlook – Thunderstorms possible
Wednesday Severe Weather Outlook – Thunderstorms possible
Thunderstorm outlook for Sunday into Monday night will be a THREE
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
As we enter the late spring and summer months, keep in mind that slow moving thunderstorms can always produce locally heavy rainfall totals. This is no secret to all of you who are farmers. Your neighbors could pick up 1″ of rain from a thunderstorm, meanwhile you are sitting on dry ground. Forecasting exact rainfall totals during this time of the year can be tricky, at best.
Rainfall totals through Monday night will vary greatly. 0.50″-1.00″ will be possible at many locations with pockets of 1-3 inches.
This section of the blog is speculative forecast information. Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation. Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.
Highlights
1. Tuesday into next weekend. Some shower and thunderstorm chances. Warmer (more seasonable temperatures)
2. Long range. I am forecasting above normal precipitation well into June.
3. Will I have to use the H word by the end of the week (hot?)
Warmer weather will arrive this coming week. By Thursday and Friday we could even see upper 80’s. I like to reserve the word hot for 90 degrees and above. But, it certainly does look to be warm and humid as the week wears on.
If we have any disturbances that move into the area then heavy thunderstorms will occur. This will need to be monitored. LOT of moisture to work with if storms form.
Tuesday high temperatures
Wednesday high temperatures
Thursday high temperatures
Friday high temperatures
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
For the most up to date maps – click here
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Please visit your local National Weather Service Office by clicking here. The National Weather Service Office, for our region, is located in Paducah, Kentucky. They have a lot of maps and information on their site. Local people…local forecasters who care about our region.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
This blog was inspired by ABC 33/40’s Alabama Weather Blog – view their blog
Current tower cam view from the Weather Observatory- Click here for all cameras.
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
The Weather Observatory
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
WSIL TV 3 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Illinois Road Conditions
Marion, Illinois
WPSD TV 6 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Kentucky Road Conditions & Kentucky Highway and Interstate Cameras
Downtown Paducah, Kentucky
Benton, Kentucky Tower Camera – Click here for full view
Benton, Kentucky
I24 Paducah, Kentucky
I24 Mile Point 9 – Paducah, KY
I24 – Mile Point 3 Paducah, Kentucky
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
