We have some great sponsors for the Weather Talk Blog. Please let our sponsors know that you appreciate their support for the Weather Talk Blog.
Milner and Orr Funeral Home and Cremation Services located in Paducah, Kentucky and three other western Kentucky towns – at Milner and Orr they believe in families helping families. You can find Milner and Orr on Facebook, as well.
.
For all of your families eye care needs. Visit their web-site here. Or, you can also visit their Facebook page.
.
Best at Enabling Body Shop Profitability since 1996. Located In Paducah Kentucky and Evansville Indiana; serving all customers in between. They provide Customer Service, along with all the tools necessary for body shops to remain educated and competitive. Click the logo above for their main web-site. You can find McClintock Preferred Finishes on Facebook, as well
Expressway Carwash and Express Lube are a locally owned and operated full service Carwash and Lube established in 1987. We have been proudly serving the community for 29 years now at our Park Avenue location and 20 years at our Southside location. We have been lucky enough to partner with Sidecar Deli in 2015, which allows us to provide our customers with not only quality service, but quality food as well. . If you haven’t already, be sure to make Expressway your one stop shop, with our carwash, lube and deli. For hours of operation and pricing visit www.expresswashlube.com or Expressway Carwash on Facebook.
TORNADO SHELTERS! Endrizzi’s Storm Shelters – For more information click here. Endrizzi Contracting and Landscaping can be found on Facebook, as well – click here
I have launched the new weather texting service! I could use your help. Be sure and sign up and fully support all of the weather data you see each day.
This is a monthly subscription service. Supporting this helps support everything else. The cost is $3 a month for one phone, $5 a month for three phones, and $10 a month for seven phones.
For more information visit BeauDodsonWeather.com
Or directly sign up at Weathertalk.com
This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Sunday Night – Mostly clear.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 52-55 degree range.
Winds: Winds north and northeast at 5 mph. Winds becoming south and southeast late.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Is severe weather expected? No
Coverage of precipitation: None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Monday – Mostly sunny. Warmer.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 76-82 degree range.
Winds: South and southeast winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 14 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Is severe weather expected? No
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Monday Night – Partly cloudy.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 56-62 degree range
Winds: Winds south and southeast at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%-20% western and northwestern counties (SE MO/SW IL)
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Although there might be rain chances on and off from Tuesday into Memorial Day, that does not mean it will rain at your location every single day. There may be storms on radar each day. It is unlikely everyone will be impacted by storms each day.
I would not cancel a single plan from Tuesday through Memorial Day weekend. Not until the details of each day becomes clearer. There could be some strong storms from Tuesday into Memorial Day weekend. But, that is not unusual.
Simply monitor updates. I know it is a big holiday weekend in the region. I don’t want the chance for showers and storms to change your plans. At least not this far out. Let’s keep an eye on the forecast. I am sure there will be adjustments each day.
Tuesday – Partly sunny. Warm. A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 76-84 degree range. Highs on Tuesday will depend on cloud cover.
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 24 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Tuesday Night – Partly cloudy. A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 64-68 degree range
Winds: Winds south and southwest at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Wednesday – Partly sunny. Warm. Thunderstorms possible. Breezy. Muggier.
What impact is expected? Wet roads. Lightning. Gusty winds. Monitor updates.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 75-80 degree range.
Winds: South and southwest winds at 12-24 mph. Gusty winds.
What is the chance for precipitation? 50%-60%
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates. Severe storms are possible.
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to perhaps numerous
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but I would monitor updated forecasts. Rain is possible.
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Wednesday Night – Partly cloudy. Thunderstorms possible. Humid.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty winds.
Temperatures: Lows in the 64-68 degree range
Winds: Winds south and southwest at 5-10 mph. Gusts to 14 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Is severe weather expected? Strong storms are a possibility. Monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Thursday – Partly sunny. Warm. A thunderstorm possible. Muggier.
What impact is expected? Wet roads. Lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 75-80 degree range. Temperatures on Thursday will be highly dependent on cloud cover.
Winds: South and southwest winds at 6-12 mph with gusts to 20 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Thursday Night – Partly cloudy. A thunderstorm possible. Mild.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 66-72 degree range
Winds: Winds south and southwest at 5-10 mph. Gusts to 12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Friday – Partly sunny. Warm. A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roads. Lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 75-80 degree range. High temperatures on Friday will be highly dependent on cloud cover.
Winds: South and southwest winds at 6-12 mph with gusts to 20 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Friday Night – Partly cloudy. A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 65-70 degree range
Winds: Winds south and southwest at 5-10 mph. Gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Saturday – Partly sunny. Warm. A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roads. Lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 76-82 degree range.
Winds: South and southwest winds at 6-12 mph. Gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Saturday Night – Partly cloudy. A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 64-68 degree range
Winds: Winds south and southwest at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Sunday – Partly sunny. Warm. A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roads. Lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 75-80 range
Winds: Winds south and southwest at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Sunday Night – Partly cloudy. A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 64-66 degree range
Winds: Winds south and southwest at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Monday ~ Memorial Day. – Partly sunny. Warm. A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roads. Lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 76-82 degree range.
Winds: South and southwest winds at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation?
Is severe weather expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Monday Night – Partly cloudy. A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 60-65 degree range
Winds: Winds south and southwest at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
.
Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities. Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate.
The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- Wow, what a Sunday!
- Warm Monday ahead of us
- Warm week ahead!
- Unsettled pattern with multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms
Well, it has been a spectacular Sunday across the region! Could you have asked for a nicer day? Mild temperatures. Light winds. Plenty of sunshine. A+ for the weather grade.
Temperatures on Sunday rose well into the 70s (even some 80s)
Monday will deliver warm and dry weather to the region. Expect several stations to reach or top 80 degrees. Here are the forecast numbers for Monday. Nice spring day!
Tuesday high temperatures should be a few degrees warmer than Monday. I will be monitor cloud cover on Tuesday. That is the only thing that could keep temperatures down just a little bit.
The week ahead:
By late Monday night a few thunderstorms could creep into the Ozark regions of southeast Missouri. I suspect the bulk of the region will remain dry. Not concerned about severe weather on Monday night.
By Tuesday the weather becomes increasingly unsettled. A series of weak upper level disturbances will skirt through our region. CAPE (a measure of energy in the atmosphere) will be very moderate to high this week. Several days we could experience CAPE numbers exceeding 3000. But, wind fields will be weak. Thus, the primary severe weather concerns will be torrential downpours, gusty winds, a few reports of down bursts, large hail, and frequent lightning. Not quite sure the extent of severe weather, just yet. Of course, it only takes one severe storm to ruin the day.
What are CAPE values and what do they mean in relation to severe weather? I found a great post about CAPE values and this should explain it. For you go-getter weather enthusiasts – click here
Timing the precipitation chances will be difficult, at best. These weak disturbances have a way of causing headaches for forecasters. I do suspect we will have a few MCS’s develop this week. MCS’s are large thunderstorm complexes that can look spectacular on satellite. Remember, I said this. I will post some satellite animations this week. You will see what I mean. These large thunderstorm complexes are much like Frankenstein. They take on a life of their own. I suspect they will develop to our west and northwest. Then shift south and southeast. What is a Mesoscale Convective System? Large thunderstorm complexes that form in the late spring and summer months. Here is a great educational lesson on this topic…click here
The best chance, at least at this time, for widespread showers and storms will likely occur on Wednesday and Wednesday night. That is not to say we won’t experience other time periods with high precipitation chances. It is simply that Wednesday currently stands out as the most likely time frame.
I have been telling everyone to NOT change their holiday plans based on the forecast. I am sure between now and the weekend the forecast will change several times. The overall pattern favors at least a chance for some showers and thunderstorms on Friday into Monday. But, how high precipitation probabilities will end up is still questionable. Keep your plans. Monitor the forecasts. It will be that kind of week. It is unusual for any given weekend in summer to not have at least a chance for precipitation.
We will see higher dew points this week. We will see higher PWAT values this week. That means a lot of moisture in the air. I would not be surprised to see dew points top 70 on several days this week. Air you wear, as Jim Rasor says. Muggy air. PWAT values are a measure of moisture in the atmosphere. High PWAT values normally means the potential for heavy rain. Especially true if thunderstorms are slow movers. Someone could pick up 1-3″ of rain in just a matter of an hour or two. That would occur if storms train over the same areas. Keep that in mind. It is this type of pattern that can produce flash flooding.
What are PWAT values? Great question! I found this blog post that explains it quite well. Click here for more information on PWAT values.
Temperatures this week will be HIGHLY dependent on cloud cover. If clouds are not as thick then we should easily see temperatures rise into the 80s. If clouds lock in, on any given day, then 70s will be the rule.
I might have to add heat index values into the forecast over the coming days. Let’s see how cloud cover unfolds, first. But, with temperatures in the 80s and dew points in the 70s, you can expect heat index values to top 90 degrees from time to time.
If you thought May has been cooler than normal then you would be right! Here is the map through May 22nd from WSI. Blue indicates below normal temperatures. Red indicates above normal temperatures. This is the anomaly map for the month, thus far. Only a few days left in the month to eat away at these anomalies.
Looking ahead through Memorial Day weekend. Expect above normal temperatures. Here is the 6-10 day temperature outlook. Red indicates where temperatures should be above normal.
Radar
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
.
Sunday night: No severe weather.
Monday: No severe weather
Tuesday: Monitor updates. Some thunderstorms are possible. Lightning is the main concern.
Tuesday night: Some thunderstorms are possible. Lightning is the main concern.
Wednesday: Monitor updates. Severe storms can’t be ruled out.
Wednesday night: Storms are possible. A few severe storms can’t be ruled out.
Thursday: Monitor updates. Strong storms are possible.
Friday: Monitor updates. Thunderstorms are possible.
Friday night: Monitor updates. Thunderstorms are possible.
Saturday: Monitor updates. Thunderstorms are possible.
Sunday: Monitor updates. Thunderstorms are possible.
Monday: Monitor updates. Thunderstorms are possible.
.
.
No major shifts in the forecast. I updated the rain probabilities for each day. Only some 10% shifts one way or another. Updated low temperatures. Monitor updates.
.
.
No major concerns in this update.
.
.
No.
.
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
.
.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
