We have some great sponsors for the Weather Talk Blog. Please let our sponsors know that you appreciate their support for the Weather Talk Blog.
Milner and Orr Funeral Home and Cremation Services located in Paducah, Kentucky and three other western Kentucky towns – at Milner and Orr they believe in families helping families. You can find Milner and Orr on Facebook, as well.
.
Check out our sponsors! There are more on the right side bar of the page, as well. Be sure and let them know that you appreciate their sponsorship of the WeatherTalk daily weather bulletin.
Wortham Dental Care located in Paducah, Kentucky. The gentle dentist. Mercury free dentistry. They also do safe Mercury removal. You can find Wortham Dental Care on Facebook, as well
.
Trover’s Equipment and Lawn Care – Family owned and operated! They are a dealer for Snapper, Simplicity, Snapper Pro, Bad Boy Mowers, and Intimidator Utility Vehicles. They are a Stihl and Dolmar power products dealer. They also are a dealer for Briggs & Stratton, Kohler gas & diesel engines, and Kawasaki engines. They service and repair just about any brand. You can find them on Facebook, as well
.
Visit their web-site here. Or, you can also visit their Facebook page.
.
Endrizzi’s Storm Shelters – For more information click here. Endrizzi Contracting and Landscaping can be found on Facebook, as well – click here
.
Are you looking for a full service insurance agency that writes homes, businesses, and vehicles in Illinois, Kentucky, and Tennessee. Call Gary’s office at 270.442.8234 for rates and plans to protect what matters to you!
Gary Eckelkamp’s web-site click the above banner or click here
.
This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
Wednesday night – Showers and thunderstorms likely. Heavy rain likely in the evening over far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and western Kentucky. Elsewhere…a few scattered showers possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 60’s
Winds: East/northeast winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor radars
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 60% early and then 30% late
What impact is expected? Any storms that form could produce locally heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds.
Thursday – Cloudy during the morning with patchy fog. Showers and thunderstorms likely over at least the southern half of the region during the morning hours. Say from Farmington, MO to Morganfield, KY southward. And, especially far southeast Missouri into the Kentucky/Tennessee border counties. Heavy rain where precipitation does fall. Then a 30%-40% chance for scattered storms during the afternoon.
Temperatures: Highs in the 80’s (below normal temperatures)
Winds: Northeast winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor radars.
Is severe weather expected? Not expecting severe storms. Some flooding not out of the question in localized areas.
What is the chance for precipitation? 70% during the morning and then 30% during the afternoon.
What impact is expected? Any storms that form could produce locally heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds. Some flooding possible in spots. Very heavy downpours. Tropical like downpours.
Thursday night – Partly cloudy. A few storms possible in the area.
Temperatures: Lows in the 60’s
Winds: East/northeast winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars from time to time
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%-30%
What impact is expected? Any storms that form could produce locally heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds.
Friday – Partly cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures: Highs in the 80’s (below normal temperatures)
Winds: Variable winds perhaps becoming more southerly at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but some storms are possible. Monitor radars.
Is severe weather expected? Not expecting severe storms.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
What impact is expected? Any storms that form could produce locally heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds.
Friday night – Partly cloudy. Isolated storms possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 60’s
Winds: East/northeast winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
What impact is expected? Any storms that form could produce locally heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds.
Saturday – Mostly sunny and warmer. Humid. Slight chance of a storm.
Temperatures: Highs around 90 degrees.
Winds: Light winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
What impact is expected? Any storms that form could produce locally heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds.
Saturday night – Partly cloudy. Perhaps some storms moving in from the north. Best chances over northern and western counties.
Temperatures: Lows in the 70’s
Winds: Light southerly winds
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
What impact is expected? Any storms that form could produce locally heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds.
Sunday – Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms.
Temperatures: Highs in the 90’s
Winds: Southerly and southwesterly winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time, but I will monitor
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40%
What impact is expected? Any storms that form could produce locally heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds.
Watching Sunday night again for another storm complex coming in from the north. Low confidence.
Sunrise and Sunset Times – Click Here
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Thursday will bring another day with below normal temperatures and a few showers
2. Warmer weekend
A stationary front is draped across our region. This front has been the focal point for scattered showers and heavy thunderstorms over the last few days. On Tuesday night and Wednesday morning the heaviest rains occurred over northern Arkansas into western Tennessee. Some places picked up 2″-4″ of rain.
Wednesday evening expect showers and heavy rain to move across southeast Missouri into far southern Illinois and western Kentucky. A quick 1-2″ of rain will be possible with this areas of showers and storms. Some light flooding can’t be ruled out. Ponding of water on roadways and poor drainage areas.
Some of this precipitation may continue well into the night. This could especially be true for southern Missouri into northern Arkansas. With patches of heavy rain over southern Illinois into Kentucky and Tennessee. Prolific rain producers because of the warm cloud layer.
The front will meander near our region over the next couple of days. It will eventually move back north over the weekend. The front may simply wash out…dissipate.
We will have some daily scattered showers and thunderstorms to deal with. Typical summer pattern.
One item of interest, and I am not sure yet how to resolve this, is that the models are showing multiple thunderstorm complexes attempting to move into our region from the north over the weekend. I have very low confidence in the placement of these features. If they happen they could produce locally heavy rain. I just don’t have much confidence, yet. Monitor updates.
The ridge of high pressure will build back in for the weekend. When the ridge returns you can expect above normal temperatures and muggy conditions. Keep that in mind. The battle of the troughs and the ridges has been the theme this summer!
Temperatures will remain below normal on Thursday and then warm to at or above normal for Friday through Sunday. Heat index values will be in the 90’s over the weekend.
This section of the blog is speculative forecast information. Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation. Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.
Highlights
1. Weekend forecast
2. Overall the pattern might stay the same into August. Occasional bursts of heat. Northwest flow will bring unsettled weather from time to time, as well. Same pattern from June and July.
Warm and humid over the weekend. A few scattered showers and storms possible. Some of the models attempt to push an MCS (thunderstorm complex) into parts of the region on Saturday night and Sunday. Perhaps northern and western counties. Low confidence on that happening. I will keep an eye on it.
I don’t see this pattern changing much over the coming 2-4 weeks. The battle of the ridge and northwest flow aloft will continue. When the ridge builds in you can expect hot weather. When the northwest flow returns you can expect thunderstorms with heavy rain.
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Don’t forget to support our sponsors!
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Storms could produce locally heavy. Tough call on rainfall totals. Same pattern as the last two months. Some places could pick up quite a bit of rain.
Any thunderstorms that train over the same areas can produce 1″-2″ of rain per hour.
Right now Friday should bring some additional scattered thunderstorms.
I will be watching Saturday and Sunday, as well.
The main concern will be now through Thursday night/Friday morning.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorms threat level is TWO for Wednesday night and Thursday.
Wednesday night and Thursday: Some storms are possible. Severe weather risk is small. Heavy rain risk is a bit greater.
Friday: Not expecting severe weather
Saturday: Not expecting severe weather
Sunday: Not expecting severe weather
The main concern will be locally heavy rain. Lot of moisture in the atmosphere. Storms that form could produce 1-2″ of rain per hour. Perhaps even more in the heaviest downpours.
Severe weather concerns are small.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Cape Girardeau, Missouri
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
