We have some great sponsors for the Weather Talk Blog. Please let our sponsors know that you appreciate their support for the Weather Talk Blog.
Milner and Orr Funeral Home and Cremation Services located in Paducah, Kentucky and three other western Kentucky towns – at Milner and Orr they believe in families helping families. You can find Milner and Orr on Facebook, as well.
This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
Tonight – A nice evening and cool overnight. Not as cool as recent nights. Sprinkles after 3 am. Light winds. Lows in the upper 40’s to lower/middle 50’s.
Saturday – Couple of sprinkles in the morning. Not a big deal. A nice spring day. Great for camping. Partly sunny – mix of sun and some clouds. It will be a bit warmer. Highs in the 70’s with easterly winds at 10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No reason to change plans
Saturday night – Increasing clouds through the night. Milder and a bit more humid. Small chance for a late night shower or thunderstorm over western parts of southeast Missouri and northwest Illinois. 20% chance. Lows will be in the upper 50’s to around lower 60’s degrees.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No reason to change plans
Sunday – Morning clouds and then partly sunny. Showers and thunderstorms possible, especially over southeast Missouri. A 40%-60% chance over western counties and then a 30%-40% chance for southern Illinois and western Kentucky/northwest Tennessee. High temperatures will be in the upper 70’s to lower 80’s. Gusty southerly winds at 10-20 mph. There will be more clouds over the western half of the region and perhaps best chances of precipitation will be western counties vs eastern counties (see my orange county forecast map on the right side of the page). Either way…a chance for some scattered showers and storms. Locally heavy rain and gusty winds with the heaviest cells. Small hail possible. Widespread or organized severe weather is not in the forecast.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
Sunday night and Monday – Mostly cloudy. A chance for showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the 60’s and highs in the upper 70’s to middle 80’s. Gusty winds from the south at 10-25 mph. Probability of precipitation will range from 70% on Sunday night to 50%-70% on Monday. Once again, some storms could be on the heavy side.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Sunrise and Sunset Times – Click Here
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Holiday weekend weather! Saturday will be beautiful.
2. Boaters need to monitor wind forecasts for Sunday and Monday. Some gusty winds possible.
3. Showers and thunderstorm chances increase on Sunday and Monday. Locally heavy rain likely. Same as the last few weekends.
Bottom line for the holiday weekend…have a plan B for Sunday into Monday. There will be some precipitation on radar. Scattered showers and thunderstorms from time to time. As always, with this type of pattern…some places will pick up several inches of rain and others will wonder what the fuss is about. Same as the last few weekends.
Well, the holiday weekend has arrived. I hope you have some plans to enjoy your time. This is usually considered the kick-off to summer.
Were you a bit cold this morning? Some spots were in the upper 30’s and lower 40’s. Impressive for late May, but not surprise based on the pattern. Dew points were in the 30’s last night across parts of the area. Some of you had thick fog to deal with. Thankfully the fog was not widespread.
Here are some of the temperatures from earlier this morning.
We will have a nice start to the weekend and then some chances for showers and storms by Sunday and Monday.
I give you the same advice that I have given you over the last few weeks. Have a plan B on Sunday and Monday. Then if it rains you will be prepared.
There will also once again be a sharp gradient on rainfall totals. I think the heaviest totals will again be over southeast Missouri and parts of southern Illinois. Lesser amounts over my eastern forecast counties. You can find my forecast county area map on the right side of the blog page. It is orange in color.
That does not mean the eastern counties are safe from rain. Not at all. All of the region will experience on and off rain chances.
As far as severe weather is concerned, I am not forecasting organized severe storms. You can always have an isolated severe thunderstorm that produces a down burst or other brief severe weather event.
Lightning would be a concern for outdoor events.
Bottom line for the holiday weekend…have a plan B for Sunday into Monday.
If you thought our region has a lot of thunderstorms each year, well you would be correct!
Let’s check out how much rain normally falls through May 21st. What would one normally expect to have fallen over the United States, thus far
Click image for larger view
And how much has actually fallen? All I can say is, wow! Some amazing totals over parts of our region and then southwest into Oklahoma, Texas, and Arkansas. The Ohio River followers are thankful that those heavy rainfall totals are not centered over our region and northeast of us.
Total precipitation anomaly through May 20th. Western half of our region is well above normal and eastern half could still use some rain. Catching up though compared to a week or two ago.
Memorial day will be warm over much of the eastern half of the United States. More humid, as well.
Let’s take a look at the high temperature forecast.
Saturday’s High Temperature Map
Sunday’s High Temperature Map
Monday’s High Temperature Map
Another issue will be gusty winds on area lakes and rivers on both Sunday and Monday. Monday in particular. Expect some gusts above 20 mph. Monday could see 30 mph wind gusts. Keep this in mind.
Here is the GFS forecast for wind speeds on Monday. This is in knots. Some gusty winds from time to time.
Click image for a larger view. Scale is on the right. Images are from weatherbell.com
The above image is for the 6 am to 10 am time frame
The image below is from 10 am to 2 pm
Let’s take a look at the Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook for Monday
We are included in the marginal risk zone. Again, an isolated report of severe weather possible. Widespread severe storms are not anticipated.
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Don’t forget to support our sponsors!
No major concerns for Saturday. Thunderstorm chances increase by Sunday and Monday. Gusty winds on Sunday and Monday for boaters.
No concerns for Saturday.
Umbrellas might be needed by Sunday and Monday. Scattered periods of showers and thunderstorms. Lightning and gusty winds are a concern. Locally heavy rain. Same as the last few weekends. Rinse and repeat seems to be the pattern. Sorry about that!
I would not cancel any plans. I would just be aware of what is going on with weather radar and be prepared for a few showers or storms.
Gusty winds on Sunday and Monday. Boaters should monitor updated forecasts.
Check out our sponsors! There are more on the right side bar of the page, as well. Be sure and let them know that you appreciate their sponsorship of the WeatherTalk daily weather bulletin.
Premier Portable Buildings proudly serving our region. For more information click the above ad or here
They can also be found on this Facebook page
G&C Multi-Services out of Paducah, Kentucky. G & C Multi-Services is a service provider in Western Kentucky that provides industrial and commercial equipment fabrication, machine troubleshooting, repair and maintenance, and installation. They can custom fabricate steel, stainless, and aluminum products per customer specifications.
Visit their web-site here. Or click the ad below! Facebook page.
Wortham Dental Care located in Paducah, Kentucky. The gentle dentist. Mercury free dentistry. They also do safe Mercury removal. You can find Wortham Dental Care on Facebook, as well
Trover’s Equipment and Lawn Care – Family owned and operated! They are a dealer for Snapper, Simplicity, Snapper Pro, Bad Boy Mowers, and Intimidator Utility Vehicles. They are a Stihl and Dolmar power products dealer. They also are a dealer for Briggs & Stratton, Kohler gas & diesel engines, and Kawasaki engines. They service and repair just about any brand. You can find them on Facebook, as well
Visit their web-site here. Or, you can also visit their Facebook page.
Endrizzi’s Storm Shelters – For more information click here. Endrizzi Contracting and Landscaping can be found on Facebook, as well – click here
Gary Eckelkamp’s web-site click the above banner or click here
.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level is ZERO for Saturday. Late Saturday night into Monday the thunderstorm threat level will be a ONE. I will monitor the chances for a few storms to pulse up to near severe levels. Right now the concerns appear small.
Anyone with outdoor events should monitor radars and lightning data. Even though a thunderstorm might not be severe, it could certainly cause problems if you have an outdoor sporting event or are camping.
Saturday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe Weather Is Not Anticipated
Sunday Severe Weather Outlook – Some thunderstorms possible. Organized severe weather is not anticipated.
Monday Severe Weather Outlook – Some thunderstorms possible. Organized severe weather is not anticipated.
Tuesday Severe Weather Outlook – Some thunderstorms possible. Organized severe weather is not anticipated.
Wednesday Severe Weather Outlook – Some thunderstorms possible. Organized severe weather is not anticipated.
Thunderstorm outlook for Saturday will be a ZERO
Thunderstorm outlook for late Saturday night into Monday night will be a ONE
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
As we enter the late spring and summer months, keep in mind that slow moving thunderstorms can always produce locally heavy rainfall totals. This is no secret to all of you who are farmers. Your neighbors could pick up 1″ of rain from a thunderstorm, meanwhile you are sitting on dry ground. Forecasting exact rainfall totals during this time of the year can be tricky, at best.
Another rainfall event is likely Sunday into Tuesday. Once again some places will pick up 1-3″ of rain and other spots will receive less than 1″. Same pattern we have been in for over a month now. Tough call on rainfall totals.
For now, it appears the entire region will pick up around 0.50″-0.75″ of rain. But, much higher totals WILL occur with this event. Same as the last two events.
Images are from weatherbell.com
This first image is through Sunday 7 pm. We will see how this goes. I do think the western half of the region has the best chance for precipitation on Sunday vs the eastern. Heavier totals west vs east
This is the rainfall forecast through next Wednesday
This section of the blog is speculative forecast information. Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation. Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.
Highlights
1. Looking ahead to the middle and end of next week
2. Unsettled look to the models into the middle of June
No real changes from yesterdays outlook. Unsettled weather may continue for awhile.
I have been forecasting May into June to bring wet conditions. I am thinking above normal precipitation over the coming weeks. Summer, as a whole, I am expecting to be wetter than normal.
We will be playing tug of war with the southeast heat ridge and the central U.S. and western U.S. trough. That means we will flirt with the heat from time to time. Especially true for our eastern and southeastern counties.
The charts look unsettled for the next 2-3 weeks with several chances of showers and thunderstorms.
It does appear precipitation chances are going to linger into at least Tuesday or Wednesday. Our eventual warm and muggy air mass may stick with us most of next week. If that happens then expect periodic changes for showers and locally heavy thunderstorms.
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
For the most up to date maps – click here
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Please visit your local National Weather Service Office by clicking here. The National Weather Service Office, for our region, is located in Paducah, Kentucky. They have a lot of maps and information on their site. Local people…local forecasters who care about our region.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
This blog was inspired by ABC 33/40’s Alabama Weather Blog – view their blog
Current tower cam view from the Weather Observatory- Click here for all cameras.
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
The Weather Observatory
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
WSIL TV 3 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Illinois Road Conditions
Marion, Illinois
WPSD TV 6 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Kentucky Road Conditions & Kentucky Highway and Interstate Cameras
Downtown Paducah, Kentucky
Benton, Kentucky Tower Camera – Click here for full view
Benton, Kentucky
I24 Paducah, Kentucky
I24 Mile Point 9 – Paducah, KY
I24 – Mile Point 3 Paducah, Kentucky
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
