May 22, 2024: Stormy weather.

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Seven Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. Lightning will be possible through at least Sunday night. I will monitor Monday.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? YES. Severe thunderstorms will be possible today through Sunday night. Peak severe chances will be this afternoon and evening. Peak chances will be Sunday and Sunday night. An outbreak of severe weather is possible Sunday.

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? YES. Repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms could cause some flooding problems. Some locations have received more than seven inches of rain over the past week. Avoid flooded roadways if flash flooding develops.

Generally, seven day rainfall totals will range from one to three inches. There will be pockets/bands of heavier rain. I would not be surprised to see pockets of three to six inches of rain.

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.

5. Will temperatures rise above 100 degrees? NO.

6. Will the heat index (feels like temperature) exceed 100 degrees? NO.

7. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? NO.

8. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? NO.

9. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? NO.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines Freezing fog possible, as well.

Fire weather risk level.

Wednesday through Wednesday night: 3. Very low risk.
Thursday: 3. Very low risk.
Thursday night: 3. Very low risk.

Fire Weather Discussion

A mix of sun and clouds is forecast today with isolated thunderstorms possibly becoming more numerous this afternoon. A front then settles in over the area bringing daily chances for showers and storms through Sunday.

A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5 means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.

Scroll down to see your local forecast details.

Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

48-hour forecast Graphics

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Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.

Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.

The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.

The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.

It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.

It shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).

It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.

It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.

The sunrise and sunset are also shown.

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Wednesday Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. Quite warm and muggy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Peak chances will be during the afternoon and evening hours.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 70%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 70%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered.
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 78° to 82°
Southeast Missouri ~ 80° to 84°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 82° to 85°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80° to 82°
Southern Illinois ~ 80° to 84°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 82° to 84°
Far western Kentucky ~ 82° to 84°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 82° to 84°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 82° to 84°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 82° to 85°
Winds will be from this direction: South wind 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 78° to 86°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Some storms could be severe during the afternoon and evening.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updated forecasts and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:41 AM
Sunset: 8:04 PM
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Wednesday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Some storms could be intense.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 60°
Southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 64°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 66° to 68°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60° to 64°
Southern Illinois ~ 62° to 65°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 63° to 66°
Far western Kentucky ~ 64° to 68°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 66° to 68°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 64° to 68°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 66° to 70°
Winds will be from this direction: South becoming west southwest 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Some storms could be severe.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updated forecasts and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
Moonrise: 7:38 PM
Moonset: 4:48 AM
The phase of the moon: Full

Thursday Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 70%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 78° to 82°
Southeast Missouri ~ 78° to 82°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 78° to 82°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 78° to 82°
Southern Illinois ~ 78° to 82°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 78° to 82°
Far western Kentucky ~ 78° to 82°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 78° to 82°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 78° to 82°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 78° to 82°
Winds will be from this direction: South southeast 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 78° to 82°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updated forecasts and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 5:40 AM
Sunset: 8:04 PM
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Thursday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 65°
Southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 65°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 62° to 65°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 62° to 65°
Southern Illinois ~ 62° to 65°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 62° to 65°
Far western Kentucky ~ 62° to 65°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 62° to 65°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 62° to 65°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 62° to 65°
Winds will be from this direction: South 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updated forecasts and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
Moonrise: 8:42 PM
Moonset: 5:21 AM
The phase of the moon: Full

Friday Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 82° to 85°
Southeast Missouri ~ 82° to 85°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 82° to 85°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 82° to 85°
Southern Illinois ~ 82° to 85°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 82° to 85°
Far western Kentucky ~ 82° to 85°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 82° to 85°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 82° to 85°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 82° to 85°
Winds will be from this direction: South 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 82° to 85°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updated forecasts and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 5:40 AM
Sunset: 8:05 PM
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Friday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 65°
Southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 65°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 64° to 68°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 62° to 65°
Southern Illinois ~ 62° to 65°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 62° to 65°
Far western Kentucky ~ 62° to 65°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 62° to 65°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 62° to 65°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 63° to 66°
Winds will be from this direction: South 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updated forecasts and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
Moonrise: 9:47 PM
Moonset: 6:03 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

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Weather Highlights and Forecast Discussion

1. Warm and humid conditions through Sunday night.
2. Thunderstorm chances will be with us through Sunday night. It won’t rain all of the time, but there will be on and off thunderstorms. Some of the rain will be heavy. Some of the storms will be severe.
3. A severe weather outbreak appears possible Sunday and Sunday night. Stay weather aware.
4. Locally heavy rain possible with storms this week. This could lead to flash flooding in areas that are saturated by recent rainfall.

Weather advice:

Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.

Weather Talk is one of those ways.

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Beau’s Forecast Discussion

Good day, everyone

Some of you woke up to heavy thunderstorms earlier this morning with frequent lightning, heavy rain, and hail.

Those storms have weakened and we are left with a mix of sun and clouds in the region.

There is a warm layer of air aloft. That is called a CAP. That CAP should keep thunderstorms from forming through most of the morning hours.

By this afternoon. the CAP may weaken enough for a few thunderstorms to form. Then, peak thunderstorm chances will be this afternoon and evening.

There remain questions about how much of the CAP weakens today. It could be an all or nothing event. Supercells will be possible if the CAP breaks.

The primary concern today will be damaging wind and hail. Perhaps hail being the top concern. The tornado risk today is limited.

Thunderstorms will wane as we move deeper into the evening and overnight hours. Scattered storms will continue to be in the forecast overnight and into tomorrow morning, but weaker with time.

Officially, the Storm Prediction Center has outlined our region for the threat of severe weather Wednesday and Wednesday night.

SPC outlook for Wednesday and Wednesday night. Again, this will be highly dependent on the atmosphere becoming unstable.

Another concern will be locally heavy rain. Seven day rainfall totals will generally range from one to two inches. Then, there will be bands/pockets of greater than three inches of rain. I would not be surprised to see some seven day totals of three to six inches of rain. This would be more isolated, but is still a concern.

Areas that received excessive rainfall last week could have water issues this week. And, new areas of concern could also develop. The atmosphere will be loaded with moisture this week. Thunderstorms will tap into that moisture.

Avoid flooded roadways.

Here are the forecasted seven day rainfall totals. Locally heavy rain is possible with this pattern.

These numbers won’t be exact, but take the general idea from this graphic. Locally heavy rain is likely.

We are going to have daily chances of showers and thunderstorms Thursday into at least Sunday night.

This active pattern will include some risk of heavy rain and severe thunderstorms.

In particular, I am monitoring Sunday’s severe weather threat. This is when a stronger system will once again move through the region. The atmosphere will be unstable and that will lead to a risk of flash flooding and severe thunderstorms.

The SPC has already placed us in a level three risk of severe weather. This is concerning.

I will be monitoring the threat of a few severe thunderstorms today, Thursday, Friday, and Saturday, as well. Confidence in severe weather during this time-frame isn’t as high as it is Wednesday and Sunday. Those two days stand out a bit more.

Stay weather aware over the coming days.

—-> I will be off work the first week of June.

I am taking my dad to Normandy, France for the 80th anniversary of D-Day. During that time, I will be away from the computer. Just a heads up!

My Great Uncle, Robert Dodson, was a meteorologist who parachuted in to forecast for D-Day and Operation Overlord. We are going over to commemorate the event.

Staff Sergeant Robert A. Dodson enlisted in the Army in August 1941 and trained as a weather observer at New Orleans Army Bomber Base in September 1941.

In April 1944, Sergeant Dodson was assigned to the 21st Weather Squadron in Ascot, England and a month later he volunteered jump school training. As his paperwork was being processed, the jump school was shut down in preparation for “D-Day”. Undaunted, Sergeant Dodson and his commanding officer convinced the 82nd Airborne Division, located at Manchester, England, to make room for one more soldier. Sergeant Dodson became a member of an Air Support Party from Ninth Air Force attached to Headquarters, 82nd Airborne Division, which consisted of an Officer in Charge, five communications men who acted as forward air controllers, a driver, and a weather observer, equipped with a half-track and a “veep” (radio equipped jeep). Sergeant Dodson received a minimum of mock-up training before making his first and only jump.

At 0230hrs on 6 June 1944, Sergeant Dodson jumped with Force “A” of the 82nd Airborne Division commanded by Brigadier General James M. Gavin. The sky was moonlit and practically clear when he landed about a mile northeast of St. Mere Eglise, France in a field where cattle were grazing. One other man had landed in the same field with him and the two of them set out at once toward the head of the stick, in spite of a knee injury Sergeant Dodson sustained during the jump. As they proceeded they picked up eight other members of their outfit one at a time. Things were progressing according to schedule and they had yet to make contact with the enemy. They found three injured men along the way, gave them first aid, and continued on. Along the way they recovered their equipment which they unpacked, selected a VHF radio, and camouflaged the rest of the equipment in a hedgerow before finally linking up with the command post which had relocated to St. Mere Eglise.

The Germans counterattacked, and during thirty-six hours all members of the Air Support Party acted as riflemen. When the siege was lifted, Sergeant Dodson began his weather observing duties. Each hour he sent by radio the present weather, wind direction and speed, visibility, ceiling and cloud heights, temperature, and dew point. For the last elements he was equipped with a shielded psychrometer and psychometric tables, while all other elements were determined visually. This work continued until 21 June, when Sergeant Dodson was evacuated to the hospital at Bouteville for treatment on the knee he injured during the jump. He later returned to his unit, which returned to England when it was relieved on 13 July. Sergeant Dodson, who made his first trip to France during the war with a parachute as a weather observer with the 82nd Airborne Division, returned to France with the headquarters of Ninth Air Force and the 21st Weather Squadron, serving out the rest of the war as chief dispatcher at the motor pool. He left the service in September 1945.

Sergeant Dodson’s military decorations include the Bronze Star Medal, Purple Heart, Europe-Africa-Middle East Campaign medal with 4 bronze service stars (for the Normandy, Northern France, Rhineland and Central Europe campaigns), American Defense Service Medal, and Distinguished Unit Citation. The Air Weather Service recognized Sergeant Dodson’s World War II service in July 1987 by naming its Specialized Support Award in his honor.

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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.

Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables. Click here.

Day One Severe Weather Outlook

Day One Severe Weather Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One Tornado Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Tornado Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Hail Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One High wind Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook. Day two outlook.

Day Two Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.

24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.

What am I looking at?

You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.