Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️

May 21th through May 27th

Current risk: Currently, we do not have a tornado risk.

Current confidence level: Medium confidence in the forecast.

Comment:  At this time, I have kept the risk of tornadoes out of the forecast.  I will monitor this weekend and next week.

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Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast?  YES.  Lightning is possible over southern Missouri, the Missouri Bootheel, southwest Kentucky, and western Tennessee tonight.  Dry Thursday and Friday. Lightning is possible area-wide late Friday night into at least next Tuesday night.  Perhaps beyond Tuesday night.

2.  Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast?  Monitor.  A few storms could produce hail tonight across southern Missouri into western Tennessee.  A smaller chance across southwest Kentucky.  I will monitor Saturday into next week.

There are no strong signals for severe weather through Sunday night.  There are signals for thunderstorms.  I can’t rule out adjustments in the severe weather forecast.  Monitor updated forecasts over the coming day.

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? SCATTERED RISK.   On and off periods of rain into next week.  With repeated rounds of thunderstorms, I can’t rule out some spotty water issues.

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph?  NO.   

5. Will temperatures rise above 90 degrees?  NO.   

6. Will the heat index rise above 100 degrees? NOT AT THIS TIME.    

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A quick forecast glance.  Your 48-hour forecast Graphics

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Good morning, everyone

Well, your weatherman is tired.  I bet you are, as well.  Our severe weather season continues to give.

The nation is now up to over 950 tornadoes for the year.  Not quite there, yet.  Close.

Our region has experienced more than sixty tornadoes.  The Paducah, Kentucky, NWS forecast area has had over 50 tornadoes.  Add in my far NW and southern counties (outside of the Paducah, KY, NWS area), the number is over sixty.

We did have a few tornadoes yesterday.  Early yesterday morning, at least one or two tornadoes touched down in southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.

One tornado struck Union and Johnson County, Illinois.  Probably an EF0 or EF1.  We will see what the NWS finds.

Then, we had more severe weather yesterday afternoon.  Mainly hail and wind.  We will have to wait and see if there were a few tornadoes in western Kentucky and western Tennessee.

The good news is that we are waking up to much nicer weather conditions this morning.  Enjoy!

A disturbance will push northwest to southeast tonight.  This will bring some showers and thunderstorms back into the region, mainly across southern Missouri and western Tennessee.  It might clip western Kentucky.

Here is what the NAM model shows tonight.  You can see the placement.

This will be close to accurate.  It is a model, of course.  But, you get the general idea for tonight.

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A few of the storms could produce hail.  There is a small risk of large hail.  The worst of that event may stay off to our south and southwest.  I will monitor it.

The EC future-cast lightning keeps it a bit farther south and west late tonight.  We are on the cool side of the boundary.

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It will be cooler today into early next week.

Perhaps one of the coolest Memorial Day weekends in quite a few years.

Highs will be in the 60s and lower 70s, for the most part.

Check out these temperature anomaly maps.  The blue and pink are below to well below average temperatures.

They show you how many degrees below average temperatures will be.  Normal highs for this time of the year are around 80 degrees. Normal lows are around 60 degrees.

Thursday’s temperature anomalies

Friday’s temperature anomalies

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Saturday’s temperature anomalies

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Sunday’s temperature anomalies

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Monday’s temperature anomalies

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Tuesday’s temperature anomalies

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The bottom line is that it will be cooler than usual.

If you have outdoor plans this weekend, then monitor updated forecasts.  Showers and thunderstorms will be an issue Friday night into next week.

It will not rain all the time, but there will be periods of precipitation.

If you have outdoor plans, then monitor updated forecasts.

There are some questions about Saturday’s forecast.  Some data keeps the higher rain chances out of our region.  Other data, hits us directly.

Have a plan B, in case it rains.

It does appear rain chances will be higher Saturday night into Sunday night.

Some of the rain could be locally heavy.

There are no strong signals for severe weather Friday night through Sunday night.

It is spring.  It is May.  I will be monitoring the severe weather risks.  If there are adjustments, then I will let you know through the app.

Precipitation chances are likely to continue into Monday and Tuesday of next week.  Perhaps beyond.

I am monitoring late May and early June for additional severe weather concerns.

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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu.  12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

NAM model.

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Here is the GFS model

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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 80 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 60 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.40″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 81 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 60 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.20″ to 1.50″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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** NEW SERVICE **  I have partnered with WeatherCall to bring you an added layer of protection.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription.  This does NOTreplace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.

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I use it myself. I encourage everyone to have 3 to 5 ways of receiving their severe weather information. All sources can fail, and the more sources you have, the better prepared you will be in the event of severe weather warnings.

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WeatherCall will call your cell phone or home number if your home is under a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning.  It only calls you ifyour home is inside the warning box/polygon. If you are outside the warning box/polygon it will not disturb you.

Here is a video with more information and a demonstration of how it works.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

If the radar is not working, then email me: Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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