May 20, 2019: Non-subscriber post

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Monday: No. I will be monitoring a line of storms approaching from Missouri after 3 AM (Tuesday morning).
Tuesday: Monitor. Severe thunderstorms are possible late in the day on Tuesday and more likely Tuesday night. The main concern will be over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.
Wednesday: Monitor. Storms may linger into Wednesday.
Thursday: No
Friday: No
Saturday: Monitor. Lightning is possible.
Sunday: Monitor. Lightning is possible.

More of the same. The main problem has been wet ground conditions.
Some of the storms on Tuesday afternoon and night could produce very heavy rain and even hail. There remain some questions, however, about storm strength once they arrive in our local area. They may be in a weakening state. That would mean the higher severe risk would be a tad to our west in Missouri and Arkansas. Monitor updates.
River flooding continues in many areas. Low-land flooding.

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Monday through Wednesday

Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. I will be monitoring a line of storms approaching from Missouri after 3 AM (Tuesday morning). Some lightning is possible. Lightning is likely on Tuesday late afternoon into Tuesday night. I will be monitoring the late afternoon hours over southeast Missouri, as well. I will be monitoring a line of storms approaching from Missouri after 3 AM (Tuesday morning).
Is severe weather in the forecast? Monitor updates. Severe storms are possible Tuesday evening/Tuesday night. I will be monitoring the late afternoon hours over southeast Missouri, as well.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor. Storms will produce heavy rain. Isolated flooding issues may develop.

Wednesday through Saturday

Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning is possible on Wednesday and Saturday.
Is severe weather in the forecast? Monitor. The bigger threat will likely be Tuesday/Tuesday night vs Wednesday. It is still a bit early to know about Saturday.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or gre
.at, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is flash flooding in the forecast? Not at this time.

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* The Missouri Bootheel includes Dunklin, New Madrid, and Pemiscot Counties
* Northwest Kentucky includes Daviess, Henderson, McLean Union, and Webster Counties

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May 20, 2019
Monday’s Forecast: Mostly sunny. Mild.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 78° to 80° SE MO 74° to 78° South IL 74° to 78° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 74° to 78° West KY 75° to 80° NW TN 78° to 82°
Wind direction and speed: A north wind becoming variable at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 75° to 80°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9 Very high
Sunrise: 5:42 AM
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Monday night Forecast: Increasing clouds. Late tonight a dying band of thunderstorms will push into southeast Missouri.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 64° SE MO 58° to 62° South IL 54° to 56° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 56° West KY 55° to 60° NW TN 60° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: East at 4 to 8 mph increasing to 7 to 14 mph late.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 56° to 60°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 20% Southeast MO 40% IL 30% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 10% NW TN 10%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: I will be monitoring a line of storms approaching from Missouri after 3 AM (Tuesday morning).
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most. Perhaps some lightning after midnight over southeast Missouri.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 8:01 PM
Moonrise: 10:01 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 7:11 AM

May 21, 2019
Tuesday’s Forecast: A dying band of storms may push across southeast Missouri and then move eastward. If this happens then some morning showers and clouds will occur. Increasing clouds from the west during the afternoon. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly over southeast Missouri late in the day. The line will be moving eastward.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (40% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 82° to 84° SE MO 78° to 84° South IL 78° to 84° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 82° West KY 82° to 84° NW TN 84° to 88°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast wind at 15 to 30 mph. Gusty winds in the afternoon.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 84° to 90°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 40% Southeast MO 40% IL 30% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 20% Western KY 30% NW TN 30%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: There are questions above Tuesday’s rain coverage. The bulk of the system may hold off until late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. I will also be monitoring a line of storms approaching from Missouri after 3 AM (Tuesday morning).
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Some storms could be intense late in the day and more likely Tuesday night. Lightning large hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes will be possible with the most intense storms. This will most likely be over portions of southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. Mainly towards late in the day into Tuesday night.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Go about your business but monitor afternoon updates.
UV Index: 8 to 9 Very high
Sunrise: 5:42 AM
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Tuesday night Forecast: A line of showers and thunderstorms pushing from west to east. Some storms will be severe. The main concern will be over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. The line will eventually weaken over southeast Illinois into Kentucky and Tennessee.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 68° SE MO 64° to 68° South IL 64° to 68° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 68° West KY 64° to 68° NW TN 64° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: South at 15 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 68°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 70% Southeast MO 70% IL 60% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60% Western KY 60% NW TN 60%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Becoming numerous with a line of storms moving in from the west.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning large hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes will be possible with the most intense storms. The main concern will be over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B. Monitor updates.
Sunset: 8:02 PM
Moonrise: 10:57 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 7:58 AM

May 22, 2019
Wednesday’s Forecast: Morning clouds. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible. Warm. Humid.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low (30% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 82° to 84° SE MO 82° to 84° South IL 78° to 82° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 78° to 82° West KY 78° to 82° NW TN 84° to 86°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest 10 to 20 mph. Gusty wind at times.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 84° to 88°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 30% Southeast MO 30% IL 30% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30% Western KY 30% NW TN 20%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
UV Index: 8 High
Sunrise: 5:41 AM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Mild for May. Humid. A slight chance of a thunderstorm near Mt Vernon, IL.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 70° SE MO 66° to 70° South IL 66° to 70° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 70° West KY 66° to 70° NW TN 68° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: South and southeast 8 to 16 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 72°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% IL 20% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: None for most. I will monitor northern portions of southern Illinois for a storm or two.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Monitor lower visibility if fog forms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 8:03 PM
Moonrise: 11:46 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 8:50 AM

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Thursday: High confidence. Warm and humid. Summer-like air. A slight chance of a thunderstorm. High temperatures in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees. Low temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Southwest at 6 to 12 mph.
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Friday: High confidence. Mostly sunny. Warm and muggy. A 20% chance of storms Friday night. High temperatures in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees. Low temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s. South and southwest winds at 10 to 20 mph and gusty.
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Saturday: Medium confidence. Partly to mostly sunny. Scattered storms are possible Saturday night. High temperatures in the middle to upper 80s. Low temperatures in the upper 60s. South and southwest winds at 7 to 14 mph
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Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.

Wind forecast

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Graphic-cast

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** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

Missouri

Illinois

Kentucky

Tennessee

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Wind forecast

This will be updated at 8 AM

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The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
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Monday: Severe storms are not anticipated. Late Monday night there could be a few storms over southeast Missouri. A weakening band of storms will come out of western Missouri. Lightning is possible.

Tuesday: Thunderstorms will again develop late in the day on Tuesday and more likely Tuesday night. Some storms could be intense with hail, high winds, and tornadoes. The main concern may be southeast Missouri and perhaps southwest Illinois.

Wednesday: A few storms may linger into Wednesday although confidence is lower.

Thursday: Severe storms are not anticipated. Small chance of lightning.

Friday: Severe storms are not anticipated. Lightning is possible Friday night.

Saturday: Monitor updates. Thunderstorms are possible mainly Saturday night.

Numerous value-added severe weather graphics.

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24-hour precipitation outlook.
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Here is the seven-day precipitation forecast. This includes day one through seven.

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The main concern will be Tuesday’s storms.
Hot and humid weather Wednesday into Saturday.
Some additional thunderstorms possible late week or weekend.

Current conditions.

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May temperature and precipitation outlook

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Precipitation

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First, we may see or smell smoke later this week as southerly winds pick up. Large wildfires in Mexico are producing the large plumes of smoke.

Weather

Today into Tuesday night:

Today will be the calm before the next storm system.

A powerful storm system will take shape to our west today. This system will spread severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, and large hail to portions of Texas and Oklahoma. Some of the severe weather parameters today are quite impressive. I would not be surprised if there were several tornadoes from this event. Very large hail is also possible out west.

The Storm Prediction Center is predicting a tornado outbreak over parts of Oklahoma and Texas and then east/northeast into part of Kansas, Missouri, and Arkansas. Not a good day for many. Let’s hope the worst-case scenario does not develop for those areas.

Tonight

A band of thunderstorms will move across Missouri. The line will be weakening as it hits eastern Missouri. That is good news.

The severe weather threat tonight should mainly be to our west.

Here is that area of showers and thunderstorms at 4 AM tonight. It will have weakened considerably. These are some of the same storms that will have passed through Kansas and Oklahoma earlier in the night.

Tomorrow

A severe weather event is likely to impact at least portions of our region.

Large hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes will be possible with a line of thunderstorms that will sweep into eastern Missouri and parts of southern Illinois late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night.

The line will then weaken as it continues to move further east.

You can see that on the high-resolution NAM 3K model.

This is what it is showing for 7 PM on Tuesday. Now, keep in mind, this is one model. The timing of the line of storms will need to be adjusted moving forward.

If any supercells form ahead of the line then they could produce strong tornadoes and a higher end severe weather event. Unsure if those storms will form. This will need to be monitored closely.

Click images to enlarge them.

This is a QLCS. A line of thunderstorms with segments and bowing segments. Typically, these produce damaging winds and short-lived tornadoes that are often times embedded in the rain.

What this line looks like as it moves into our local area is the real question. Monitor updates.

1 PM Tuesday

7 PM Tuesday

Notice the bow echo over northeast Missouri? That is a bowing line of storms. That surge can produce winds over 65 mph.

Here is the significant tornado parameter for tomorrow at 7 PM.

This is concerning.

If a few storms form ahead of the line of thunderstorms then they could tap into an atmosphere that is primed for severe weather.

We will need to carefully monitor this.

The line of storms will push into our region by late afternoon into the night.

The greatest concern will be across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.

The line of storms could produce hail and damaging winds. Tornadoes cannot be ruled out.

Here is where the NAM 3K model places some of the stronger storms.

Now, this is a model. They are rarely exact. It does give you an idea of where the line causes problems.

Notice, further east the line weakens and we do not see these strong updraft zones.

Plan on the bulk of the afternoon arriving in southeast Missouri during the late afternoon hours. The line will then move east/northeast across our region.

Most of the region may have to wait until Tuesday night to experience the thunderstorms.

We may have a few thunderstorms on Wednesday, as well. Storms on Wednesday are currently expected to remain below severe levels.

Thursday through Sunday

Welcome to summer weather!

Hot and muggy weather will develop Wednesday into the weekend. Temperatures will rise into the upper 80s and perhaps lower 90s. Dew points will jump into the upper 60s to around 70 degrees. That is muggy air. It won’t feel like May.

Check out these dew points. These are the type of dew points that we typically see in July or August. Not May!

70-degree dew points are uncomfortable. Air you wear (as Jim Rasor says).

Wednesday afternoon/night.

Thursday afternoon and evening.

We will likely remain rain-free Thursday and Thursday night. Possibly Friday, as well.

There is a small chance of storms near Mt Vernon, IL Thursday night.

Thunderstorms may return to the forecast Friday night into the weekend. Confidence in the weekend forecast is medium.

I would not change any weekend plans (not yet). Monitor updates moving forward.

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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

Here is the lower resolution NAM model.

Timestamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

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Looking even further out. The GFS is quite active as we move into May.

Keep in mind, the further out in time you travel the lower confidence in the forecast.

Timestamp upper left. Click to enlarge animations.

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These maps update several times a day. Occasionally, in between updates, you may see a duplicate day or one out of sync.

Forty-eight-hour temperature outlook.

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WeatherBrains Episode 693
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Tonight’s guest WeatherBrain is the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at the NWS Office in Memphis, TN. He is a 31-year veteran of the NWS, and worked at offices in west Texas, north Texas, and Phoenix AZ before moving to Memphis. He received his Bachelors Degree in Meteorology from Florida State, and his Masters from the University of Oklahoma. He has focused on severe storms and storm spotter training throughout his career, and has helped develop spotter training materials that were and are used nationwide. Gary Woodall, welcome to WeatherBrains!

Tonight’s second guest WeatherBrain is a graduating senior from the University of Oklahoma’s School of Meteorology. She is Oklahoma Weather Labs Director of Operations and a Senior Representative to the OU School of Meteorology Student Affairs Committee. Also, she is Deputy Director of the New Student Mentoring Program and a member of the OU Nightly Weather Team. Leah Hill, welcome to WeatherBrains!

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like: