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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Sunday Night – Partly cloudy and cooler. Showers and storms will be coming to an end. Evening storms could be strong. Patchy fog possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle 50s
Winds: Winds west and northwest winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40%. A few storms are likely to occur. Many areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? Evening storms could be severe.
What impact is expected? Patchy fog. Wet roadways. High winds and hail with thunderstorms. Lightning.
Your Interactive City View Radars: Track the rain
Need a lightning tracker website? Here you go
Monday – Partly sunny. A 40%-50% chance for showers and a small chance for a thunderstorm. Especially southern half of the region.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the upper 60s and lower 70s
Winds: North and northwest at 10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-50% Expect some showers on radar Monday
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Some wet roadways possible.
Monday Night – Mostly cloudy. Cool. A shower possible before 8 pm. Perhaps best chance would be near the KY/TN border.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower 50s
Winds: Winds north and northwest winds at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways possible.
Tuesday – Increasing clouds. A few light showers possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s
Winds: North and northwest at 10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? None to isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Maybe some wet roadways
Tuesday Night – Decreasing clouds.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 40s and lower 50s
Winds: Winds west and northwest winds at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Wednesday – Partly sunny. Mild. A scattered shower possible. Mainly the eastern counties of the region. Southeast Illinois into the Pennyrile of western Kentucky.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the upper 60s and lower 70s
Winds: North and northwest at 10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways
Wednesday Night – Some clouds possible. Cool. A shower possible. Mainly over our northeast and eastern counties. That would include southeast Illinois and northwest Kentucky.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 40s and lower 50s
Winds: Winds north and northwest winds at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Perhaps some wet roadways.
Thursday – Partly cloudy. Cool.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the upper 60s and lower 70s
Winds: North and northwest at 10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated to none
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Maybe wet roadways. Otherwise, none.
Thursday Night – Mostly clear. Cool.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s
Winds: Winds north and northwest winds at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Friday – Partly cloudy. Mild.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s
Winds: North at 10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Friday Night – Mostly clear. Cool.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s
Winds: Winds north and northwest winds at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Saturday – Mostly sunny. Mild.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the lower to middle 70s
Winds: Northeast at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak.
Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities. Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- Sunday evening storms
- Some light rain chances this week
- Warming trend later this week
- Fairly calm week, overall
- Watching another system next Sunday or Monday
Well, between the thunderstorms and the earthquake it was not a dull weekend. We had severe thunderstorms on Saturday rake across portions of Missouri and southwest Illinois. Just a tad to the north and west of my forecast counties. Egg size hail was reported in the St Louis area. Small hail was reported over southern Illinois on Saturday night. And, we had a small earthquake late Saturday night (Sunday morning). The quake was centered north of La Center, Kentucky. It was about 14 KM deep and registered a 3.5. It woke a lot of people up. Then we had some severe storms on Sunday afternoon over western Kentucky. Several reports of downed trees.
This is what the quake looked like on paper.
The week ahead
The cold front is moving through our region, as of this typing. And, a few more storms will pop ahead of the front on Sunday afternoon and night. But, precipitation should be on the way out with each passing hour.
Any storms that form Sunday evening could be intense with high winds and hail.
A weak disturbance moves into our area on Monday. A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible with this system. The main area of activity should be further south vs north. The best chance of rain will be over the Missouri Bootheel and western Kentucky/Tennessee. Lesser chances as you travel north. A few showers are possible into southern Illinois. But, the best chances will be further south.
Another weak disturbance arrives on Tuesday and Wednesday evening. Perhaps a few light showers will accompany those disturbances, as well. Many will remain dry.
Speaking of dry. We finally get a break from the rain and storms. The rest of the week looks dry. And, a warming trend through the week. Coolest days will be Monday and Tuesday.
The next system arrives around Sunday or Monday. I will need to work on the timing of that system. The models have been slowing its progression.
Your Interactive City View Radars: Track the rain
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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There will be a level two risk for severe weather on Sunday afternoon.
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Sunday evening: Some heavy thunderstorms are possible.
Monday – Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Next Saturday and Sunday: Perhaps some storms by Sunday. Low confidence.
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Adjusted rain probabilities for the week ahead. Temperatures, as well.
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No major concerns outside of today’s (Sunday) afternoon storms.
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
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We may pop a few showers on Monday. The best chances will be over the southern half of the area. Far southeast Missouri (the Bootheel), far southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee. Rainfall totals on Monday should be mostly on the light side. Perhaps a little higher in Tennessee. But, overall totals are expected to be less than 0.30″.
A weak disturbance could cause a few showers to develop on Tuesday and Wednesday. Rainfall totals would be light.
A fairly calm pattern over the coming week. Perhaps the next cold front arrives on Sunday or Monday.
You can see on this rainfall total forecast map that anything that falls Monday into the middle of the week would be light. Maybe the weatherman can get some rest.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
