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Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section
Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
Drought monitor shows widespread drought to our west and then across the northern United States and then east/southeast from there.
This is a concern this summer in those areas. We will have to watch our region, as well. For now, we are okay.
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Wednesday to Wednesday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Possible. Isolated lightning today. Chances Thursday through Monday appear low. I am watching Tuesday. A cold front will push in from the north.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Not at this time.
The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.
4. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? No.
5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? No.
6. Will there be accumulating snow and ice in the forecast? No.
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May 19, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Wednesday Forecast: A few clouds. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mainly over southeast Missouri.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 30% / MO Bootheel ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered over southeast Missouri. Elsewhere, less coverage.
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the day
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 76° to 80° / SE MO 74° to 78° / South IL 74° to 78° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 74° to 78° / West KY 74° to 78° / NW TN 74° to 78°
Wind direction and speed: South southeast at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 80°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 5:43AM
Sunset: 8:01 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: A few clouds. A slight chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 30% / MO Bootheel ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Any given point
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 65° / SE MO 62° to 65° / South IL 62° to 65° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 64° / West KY 63° to 66° / NW TN 63° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Moonrise: 12:20 PM
Moonset: 1:51 AM
The phase of the moon: First Quarter
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May 20, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Warmer. An isolated thunderstorm possible. Most of the region will remain dry.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 10% / MO Bootheel ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / South IL ~ 10% / West KY ~10% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10% / NW TN ~10%
Coverage of precipitation: None for most
Timing of the rain: Mainly after 12 PM (Missouri Ozarks)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 82° to 85° / SE MO 82° to 85° / South IL 82° to 85° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 82° to 85° / West KY 82° to 85° / NW TN 82° to 85°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 6 to 12 mph. Higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 82° to 85°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most. An isolated wet roadway and lightning possible (mainly over southeast Missouri).
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? N0
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:42 AM
Sunset: 8:02 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% / MO Bootheel ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 65° / SE MO 62° to 65° / South IL 62° to 65° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 64° / West KY 63° to 66° / NW TN 63° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:26 PM
Moonset: 2:25 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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May 21, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Friday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Most likely dry. I can’t completely rule out an isolated thunderstorm during the heat of the day.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 10% / MO Bootheel ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / South IL ~ 10% / West KY ~ 10% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10% / NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated. Most likely dry.
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 86° / SE MO 83° to 86° / South IL 83° to 86° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 83° to 86° / West KY 83° to 86° / NW TN 84° to 86°
Wind direction and speed: South at 6 to 12 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 83° to 86°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most. An isolated wet roadway and lightning possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:42 AM
Sunset: 8:03 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% / MO Bootheel ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 65° / SE MO 62° to 65° / South IL 62° to 65° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 64° / West KY 63° to 66° / NW TN 63° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:34 PM
Moonset: 2:56 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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May 22, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Saturday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% / MO Bootheel ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 85° to 90° / SE MO 84° to 88° / South IL 84° to 88° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 84° to 86° / West KY 84° to 88° / NW TN 84° to 88°
Wind direction and speed: South at 6 to 12 mph. Higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 84° to 90°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:41 AM
Sunset: 8:03 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% / MO Bootheel ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 68° / SE MO 64° to 68° / South IL 64° to 68° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 63° to 66° / West KY 64° to 68° / NW TN 64° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: South at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 3:43 PM
Moonset: 3:25 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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May 23, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Sunday Forecast: Partly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% / MO Bootheel ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 85° to 90° / SE MO 84° to 88° / South IL 84° to 88° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 84° to 86° / West KY 84° to 88° / NW TN 84° to 88°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph. Higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 86° to 92°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:40 AM
Sunset: 8:04 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% / MO Bootheel ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 65° to 70° / SE MO 64° to 68° / South IL 64° to 68° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 63° to 66° / West KY 64° to 68° / NW TN 64° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: South at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 63° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:55 PM
Moonset: 3:55 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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May 24, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Monday Forecast: Partly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% / MO Bootheel ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 85° to 90° / SE MO 84° to 88° / South IL 84° to 88° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 84° to 86° / West KY 84° to 88° / NW TN 84° to 88°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph. Higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 86° to 92°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:40 AM
Sunset: 8:05 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% / MO Bootheel ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 65° to 70° / SE MO 64° to 68° / South IL 64° to 68° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 63° to 66° / West KY 64° to 68° / NW TN 64° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: South at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 63° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:10 PM
Moonset: 4:27 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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May 25, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance of a shower or thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20% / MO Bootheel ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~20% / South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Mainly after 12 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 85° to 90° / SE MO 84° to 88° / South IL 84° to 88° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 84° to 86° / West KY 84° to 88° / NW TN 84° to 88°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph. Higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 86° to 92°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:39 AM
Sunset: 8:06 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Increasing clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 30% / MO Bootheel ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the night
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 65° to 70° / SE MO 64° to 68° / South IL 64° to 68° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 63° to 66° / West KY 64° to 68° / NW TN 64° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: South at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 63° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:27 PM
Moonset: 5:02 AM
The phase of the moon: Full
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These graphics are changed out between 10:00 AM and 11:00 AM (Monday through Friday only)
Double click on the images to enlarge them.
Click the images to enlarge them.
Tuesday graphic
Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Kentucky
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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.Tennessee
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Today through May 24th: Severe weather is not anticipated.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:
No significant weather concerns (outside of rain chances).
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Weather Discussion
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- Showers and thunderstorms today.
- Decreasing rain coverage tonight into at least Monday.
- Much warmer air is on the way!
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Rain coverage this morning is scattered. We do have a lot of clouds in the region. I lowered high temperatures because of this. Mostly 70s today.
The widespread 80s will arrive tomorrow and take us into next week.
Rain totals today will mostly be less than 0.25″.
Dry conditions, for the most part, are anticipated Thursday into Monday. I can’t completely rule out a stray shower or thunderstorm, but the odds are that the bulk of the region will remain dry.
High temperatures will range from the lower to middle 80s Thursday and then slowly creep their way into the middle and upper 80s by the weekend and early next week.
I am watching a cold front next Tuesday into Wednesday. This would bring shower and thunderstorm chances back to the region.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
- The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
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.This animation is the 3K NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 80 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 60 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.30″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers May 19th through May 25th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 62 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.50″
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This outlook covers May 26th through June 1st
Click on the image to expand it.
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 64 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 2.50″ to 2.90″
This outlook covers May 31st through June 14th
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Precipitation outlook
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION
Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.
Spring Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
March, April, and May Temperature Outlook
March, April, and May Precipitation Outlook
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May outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Temperature outlook
May precipitation outlook
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The preliminary June outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Temperature departures
June precipitation outlook
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Preliminary outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
July Temperature Outlook
July precipitation outlook
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Preliminary outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
August Temperature Outlook
August precipitation outlook
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Summer Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
June, July, and August Temperature Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
June, July, and August Precipitation Outlook
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Great news! The videos are now found in your Weathertalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.
These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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