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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
Monday Night – evening thunderstorms ending. Some fog developing. Cooler with lows in the 50’s. Winds becoming northwest and north at 5-10 mph.
Tuesday – Some morning fog possible. A pleasant spring day. Mostly sunny. Maybe some fair weather cumulus clouds. High temperatures in the upper 60’s north and lower 70’s south. North winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Morning School Bus Stop Weather – Mostly sunny and cool. Temperatures mostly in the 50’s with light north winds.
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Afternoon School Bus Stop Weather – Mostly sunny. Perhaps a few puffy cumulus clouds. Temperatures mostly in the 70’s. Light north winds.
Tuesday night – Mostly clear in the evening. Increasing clouds overnight. Cool. Lows in the 50’s. North and northeast winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Wednesday – A chance for showers and thunderstorms moving in from the west during the late morning and afternoon hours. Severe weather is not anticipated, but monitor updates. Temperatures will be below normal with highs mostly in the upper 60’s to middle 70’s. East winds at 5-15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Rain is possible
Wednesday night – A chance for showers and thunderstorms. Ending from the west. Cooler. Lows in the upper 40’s and lower 50’s. West/northwest winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Rain is possible
Thursday – Quite a few clouds around and cooler than normal temperatures. Pleasant. Highs mostly in the upper 60’s and 70’s. Winds from the north at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Right now…Friday and Saturday look nice. Rain returns by Sunday (see details in the extended discussion)
Sunrise and Sunset Times – Click Here
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Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. A wonderful Tuesday is on tap for the region
2. Rain chances return by Wednesday.
3. Extended forecast takes you into the weekend. Will it rain again?
Nice satellite view on Monday evening. Can you find where the cold front is located? Click for the large view. You can see a few of the Monday afternoon thunderstorms ahead of the front.
Well, our whirlwind rain event has come to an end! Rainfall totals from Friday into Monday afternoon varied quite a bit across the region. Most locations picked up 0.50″-1.00″ of rain. There were a few spots that missed out, again. And there were a few spots that hit the rain jackpot. Some locations received more than 4″ of rain. Radar estimated greater than 5″ in spots. That is the way spring typically plays out.
Let’s look at the past 3 days and 10 days (this does not include the Sunday or Monday’s rainfall).
Rainfall totals for the region have varied quite a bit. But, a lot of areas are wet. Finally western Kentucky has picked up some much needed rainfall, as well. I was becoming a bit worried last week. But, they made up for it over the weekend (at least most locations did)
These two maps are from weatherbell.com
The 3 day rainfall totals from 7 am Thursday morning through 7 am Sunday morning. A lot of rain fell after this time. I will post that map tomorrow. Click the image for a larger view.
This is a broad-brush estimated rainfall. I noticed that it has underplayed some of the numbers. Some of the heavier pockets actually have 1-2″ more than shown.
And the 10 day rainfall map ending on Sunday morning
The cold front that moved through the area on Monday night has brought less humid air into the region. It has also pushed the rain and storms to our south. Steamy over the south-lands, but nice for our region.
Although Tuesday will be dry, Wednesday will not. A fast moving storm system will approach our region from the west. Rain and thunderstorm chances will first arrive over southeast Missouri on Wednesday morning and then spread eastward through the day.
Low confidence on rainfall totals for Wednesday and Wednesday night.
Rainfall totals are not forecast to be as heavy as the last few days. But, some locations could pick up a quick 0.25″-0.75″. Locally heavier amounts in thunderstorms. That is always the case with thunderstorms.
Rain will end by late Wednesday night. Thursday should be dry. I believe all of the precipitation will exit by Thursday morning. I will keep an eye on this part of the forecast.
Temperatures will be below normal most of this week. Highs in the 60’s and 70’s with lows in the 50’s. Can’t rule out some 40’s later this week, but generally 50’s will make up the overnight lows. Cool and pleasant spring weather.
Tuesday high temperatures
Wednesday high temperatures
Thursday high temperatures
See the extended discussion below for the weekend details.
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Added rain chances for Wednesday. I had them mentioned in the last update…confidence was low. Confidence is higher now.
No concerns for Tuesday. A beautiful spring day across our region. Enjoy!
Other than get outside and enjoy the wonderful Tuesday weather 🙂
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level is ZERO for Tuesday.
During inclement weather, anyone with outdoor events should monitor radars and lightning data. Even though a thunderstorm might not be severe, it could certainly cause problems if you have an outdoor sporting event or are camping.
Tuesday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe Weather Is Not Anticipated
Wednesday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe Weather Is Not Anticipated. Thunder possible.
Thursday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe Weather Is Not Anticipated.
Friday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe Weather Is Not Anticipated
Saturday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe Weather Is Not Anticipated
Sunday Severe Weather Outlook – Monitor updates
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
As we enter the late spring and summer months, keep in mind that slow moving thunderstorms can always produce locally heavy rainfall totals. This is no secret to all of you who are farmers. Your neighbors could pick up 1″ of rain from a thunderstorm, meanwhile you are sitting on dry ground. Forecasting exact rainfall totals during this time of the year can be tricky, at best.
The good news is that Tuesday will be dry. The bad news is that rain will again return to the picture by Wednesday and Thursday. Then again later this weekend.
This section of the blog is speculative forecast information. Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation. Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.
Highlights
1. Will our wet weather continue into June?
2. Weekend forecast is partly dry! It’s a start
3. Temperatures will be below normal most of the week.
Well, we have not been batting very well for our weekends. We have had numerous wet weekends over the past 2 months. It appears our pattern may continue for the next few weeks.
First, the good news. Friday and Saturday should remain dry for our local area. I believe precipitation chances will stay well to our west. If you have plans on Friday and Saturday then you should be fine.
I am monitoring Saturday. Lower than normal confidence on Saturday’s forecast. Some of the data brings rain and storms in faster than other data. Monitor updates.
But, all good things must come to an end. Rain and thunderstorm chances will once again be on the increase by Sunday and Sunday night.
At this time, the severe weather risk appears minimal for Sunday and Sunday night. It is May. That means you should monitor updates. Lightning and heavy downpours will be the main concern. Sound familiar? It should. We just went through this the last two weekends.
Low confidence on the timing of the rains exit on Monday. Some data lingers rain into Tuesday morning. Keep this in mind. Still several days away and plenty of time for updates.
We may dry out by Monday night and Tuesday. Another high pressure center builds back into our region at that time. Sound familiar? That is exactly what happened over the last 4 days. Rain and storms on Sunday and Sunday night with high pressure building back in by Monday night and Tuesday. We are definitely on a repeating pattern. Typical for spring.
Rainfall totals on Sunday will once again vary greatly. Locally heavy downpours will push the totals over 1″ in some locations. Still several days away…adjustments will likely be made between now and then. That is how it appears right now.
Some weather maps for the weekend. Pink and blue represent scattered showers and thunderstorms
These images are from wright-weather.com and are of the GFS model. The GFS brings the cold front into our region a little faster than the EC model. Either way…rain and storm chances appear to increase by Sunday and Sunday night.
This is the Sunday weather map at 12-2 pm. You can see the area of low pressure over Nebraska and Iowa. That is the little L surrounded by closed lines of equal pressure. The little blue lines. Those are isobars. They circle the low. Each closed isobar around the low represents lower pressure.
Perhaps some severe thunderstorms to our northwest on Sunday. I will need to monitor how far the severe threat extends.
You can see some precipitation painted over our region on Sunday.
Then by Monday morning/afternoon. Still precipitation lingers in our region. This is likely along the cold front as it sweeps east/southeast.
Then we move ahead to Tuesday (the map below). Another area of high pressure drops down from Canada. You can see the H over northern Missouri. 1030 millibars. That is a decent area of high pressure for the Month of May. This promises to bring another shot of cool air for next week. When high pressure moves in from Canada we typically experience cooler weather. When high pressure builds in from the southeast (during spring and summer) it usually means warmer weather. Canadian high pressure in the winter means bitterly cold air.
Friday high temperatures
Saturday high temperatures
Sunday high temperatures
Enjoy the week.
Regional Radar
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Please visit your local National Weather Service Office by clicking here. The National Weather Service Office, for our region, is located in Paducah, Kentucky. They have a lot of maps and information on their site. Local people…local forecasters who care about our region.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
This blog was inspired by ABC 33/40’s Alabama Weather Blog – view their blog
Current tower cam view from the Weather Observatory- Click here for all cameras.
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
The Weather Observatory
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
WSIL TV 3 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Illinois Road Conditions
Marion, Illinois
WPSD TV 6 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Kentucky Road Conditions & Kentucky Highway and Interstate Cameras
Downtown Paducah, Kentucky
Benton, Kentucky Tower Camera – Click here for full view
Benton, Kentucky
I24 Paducah, Kentucky
I24 Mile Point 9 – Paducah, KY
I24 – Mile Point 3 Paducah, Kentucky
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
