We have some great sponsors for the Weather Talk Blog. Please let our sponsors know that you appreciate their support for the Weather Talk Blog.
Milner and Orr Funeral Home and Cremation Services located in Paducah, Kentucky and three other western Kentucky towns – at Milner and Orr they believe in families helping families. You can find Milner and Orr on Facebook, as well.
This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
Sunday night – Showers and locally heavy thunderstorms developing. Lows will be mainly in the upper 60’s to lower 70’s. Southerly winds at 10-15 mph. Gusty near storms.
Monday – Some additional showers and thunderstorms possible. Warm and muggy. High temperatures in the upper 70’s to lower 80’s. Southwest winds at 10-15 mph and gusty at times.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Monday night – Showers and thunderstorms early. Becoming partly cloudy late. Lows in the upper 50’s to around 60 degrees. Winds becoming northwest at 10-15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B early in the evening. Some precipitation still possible. Front slowed down a bit.
Tuesday – Partly sunny. Cooler. Less humid. High temperatures mainly in the 70’s with north/northwest winds at 10-15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Tuesday night – Partly cloudy and cool. Low temperatures in the upper 40’s to lower 50’s. North winds at 10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Rain chances may return by Wednesday and Wednesday night.
Have you checked out my social media feed page? You can view the latest Tweets and Facebook posts…all in one location. Click here to view the page.
Sunrise and Sunset Times – Click Here
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by TransAmerica Agency Network Paducah District – you can visit their Facebook page here and their home page here
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Cold front arrives on Monday. Frontal passage will bring an end to our heavy rain
2. Much cooler for Tuesday and Wednesday
3. Will rain chances return by Wednesday into Thursday? Appears so
I said last week that parts of the area would receive 5 to 8 inches of rain before the month is over. Over the weekend some places picked up 3-5 inches of rain. This is on top of last weeks heavy rains that brought several inches of precipitation to southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. This time around western Kentucky managed to get in on the action. Much needed rain. We just didn’t need it by the bucket load.
Additional heavy rain will fall Sunday night into Monday. As of this update at 4 pm…I am waiting on new storms to fire up over eastern Missouri and northern Arkansas. These storms will bring several inches of rain to the region tonight. Of course the amounts will vary greatly. Same as recent days (and weeks). But, someone will probably receive more than 3 inches of rain tonight.
A cold front will sweep through the area on Monday and Monday night. This will finally bring an end to our heavy rain and thunderstorms. At least for a couple of days. But, more rain is already showing up in the charts.
The cold front will stall out to our south on Tuesday and start to lift back into our region as a warm front on Tuesday night and Wednesday. This will once again bring an increase in moisture to the region.
A weak upper level disturbance will skirt the area on Wednesday and could trigger a few showers and thunderstorms. A better chance of precipitation should arrive on Wednesday night and Thursday. See the extended discussion further down in the blog for details on the extended forecast.
I promised you a wet second half of May. And so it is unfolding to be.
Check out these amazing temperatures for the coming days…Tuesday into Saturday will bring below normal temperatures.
Monday’s highs
Tuesday’s highs
Wednesday highs
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Don’t forget to support our sponsors!
Heavy downpours could continue to cause problems in some areas. Monitor updated warnings and avoid flooded roadways.
The severe weather risk remains minimal through Monday night. I can’t completely rule out a severe thunderstorm, but the risk is small. Heavy rain and lightning are the main concerns for outdoor activities.
Umbrella weather will continue into Monday night. Avoid flooded roadways, as always.
Check out our sponsors! There are more on the right side bar of the page, as well. Be sure and let them know that you appreciate their sponsorship of the WeatherTalk daily weather bulletin.
Premier Portable Buildings proudly serving our region. For more information click the above ad or here
They can also be found on this Facebook page
G&C Multi-Services out of Paducah, Kentucky. G & C Multi-Services is a service provider in Western Kentucky that provides industrial and commercial equipment fabrication, machine troubleshooting, repair and maintenance, and installation. They can custom fabricate steel, stainless, and aluminum products per customer specifications.
Visit their web-site here. Or click the ad below! Facebook page.
Wortham Dental Care located in Paducah, Kentucky. The gentle dentist. Mercury free dentistry. They also do safe Mercury removal. You can find Wortham Dental Care on Facebook, as well
Trover’s Equipment and Lawn Care – Family owned and operated! They are a dealer for Snapper, Simplicity, Snapper Pro, Bad Boy Mowers, and Intimidator Utility Vehicles. They are a Stihl and Dolmar power products dealer. They also are a dealer for Briggs & Stratton, Kohler gas & diesel engines, and Kawasaki engines. They service and repair just about any brand. You can find them on Facebook, as well
Visit their web-site here. Or, you can also visit their Facebook page.
Endrizzi’s Storm Shelters – For more information click here. Endrizzi Contracting and Landscaping can be found on Facebook, as well – click here
Gary Eckelkamp’s web-site click the above banner or click here
.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
The wild card tells you where the uncertainties are in the forecast
Wild card in this forecast – The wild card in the forecast will be low temperatures on Tuesday night. Might some of our counties dip into the upper 40’s? Appears possible.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level is TWO for Sunday night and Monday. I can’t rule out a severe thunderstorm. Coverage of severe weather would be limited. But, the risk is not zero.
.
Monday Severe Weather Outlook – Showers and thunderstorms likely. I can’t rule out a severe storm on Monday, but the overall risk appears fairly small.
.
Tuesday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe Weather Is Not Anticipated
Wednesday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe Weather Is Not Anticipated, at this time. I can’t rule out a thunderstorm returning to the forecast Wednesday into Thursday.
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
As we enter the late spring and summer months, keep in mind that slow moving thunderstorms can always produce locally heavy rainfall totals. This is no secret to all of you who are farmers. Your neighbors could pick up 1″ of rain from a thunderstorm, meanwhile you are sitting on dry ground. Forecasting exact rainfall totals during this time of the year can be tricky, at best.
Rainfall totals of Sunday night will vary quite a bit, again. Expect widespread 0.40″ to 1.00″ totals with pockets of greater than 3″.
Rainfall totals on Monday and Monday night will range from 0.25″-0.75″ with locally heavier amounts likely in thunderstorms.
This section of the blog is speculative forecast information. Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation. Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.
Highlights
1. Rain chances may return as early as Wednesday
2. Next few weeks look unsettled with multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain?
The cold front that brought all of the rain weekend rain to the region will stall out to our south on Tuesday and Tuesday night. It will start to lift back north as a warm front by Wednesday.
Additional shower and thunderstorm chances will enter the picture by Wednesday and Wednesday night. These precipitation chances will linger into Thursday.
High pressure is currently forecast to drop into the region from the north by Thursday night and Friday. If this occurs then we should dry out for Friday and Saturday. Crossing all fingers that you actually have at least part of a weekend dry!
Here is the Thursday night weather map. Check out the big Canadian high pressure center over Missouri and Iowa. Not bad for late spring! Below normal temperatures will accompany the high pressure for Thursday night into Saturday night.
Another storm system will approach the region by Sunday and Monday. This will bring a return to thunderstorm chances. Confidence is low on the timing of that event. Still several days away.
Here is the GFS model from wright-weather.com Messy messy by Sunday and Monday. Large area of showers and heavy thunderstorms.
This is the Saturday night weather map. You can see the storm system building to our west. Area of low pressure over western Kansas promises them more severe thunderstorms.
Then by Sunday the low pulls into Iowa. Showers and thunderstorms spread into our region. Some heavy rain possible, once again.
By Monday a cold front sweeps through our region. Showers and storms will accompany the front. Too early to make a call on severe weather concerns. Plenty of time to monitor that subject.
Wet conditions will continue into the middle of June. Expect above normal to much above normal precipitation.
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
For the most up to date maps – click here
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Please visit your local National Weather Service Office by clicking here. The National Weather Service Office, for our region, is located in Paducah, Kentucky. They have a lot of maps and information on their site. Local people…local forecasters who care about our region.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
This blog was inspired by ABC 33/40’s Alabama Weather Blog – view their blog
Current tower cam view from the Weather Observatory- Click here for all cameras.
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
The Weather Observatory
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
WSIL TV 3 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Illinois Road Conditions
Marion, Illinois
WPSD TV 6 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Kentucky Road Conditions & Kentucky Highway and Interstate Cameras
Downtown Paducah, Kentucky
Benton, Kentucky Tower Camera – Click here for full view
Benton, Kentucky
I24 Paducah, Kentucky
I24 Mile Point 9 – Paducah, KY
I24 – Mile Point 3 Paducah, Kentucky
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
