11 AM Update
Monitoring clearing over southwest MO and Arkansas. Clearing is a concern today. If clearing occurs then the atmosphere will become unstable. Isolated severe storms would be a concern. I believe the risk at any given location is small. But, keep in mind…it only takes one severe storm to cause major problems.
Here is the 11 am satellite showing the clearing
Rain may linger now into Monday night. New data leaning that way. Sounds right based on current observations.
10 AM Update
I am still not overly concerned about severe weather today. Lot of cloud cover and morning precipitation. With that said, I can’t rule out a storm becoming severe. Not expecting widespread severe weather. Gusty winds and hail would be possible and maybe even a brief tornado. Risk at any given spot is low.
Widespread showers and storms have develop this morning over Missouri and Arkansas. This shield of precipitation is moving east/northeast. Wet day ahead for many locations.
Gusty winds are possible today on area lakes and rivers.
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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
Saturday night – Partly to mostly cloudy with some lingering showers and thunderstorms. Only small chances for precipitation late at night. Lows in the upper 60’s to around 70 degrees. Southerly winds at 10 mph. Chance of rain 40%-60% early and then 30% late.
Sunday – Warm and humid. A good chance for showers and thunderstorms. Thunderstorms that form on Sunday could produce brief heavy downpours, frequent lightning, gusty winds, and even small hail. Highs will be generally in the upper 70’s and lower 80’s with southwest winds at 10-15 mph. We will need to monitor Sunday for some stronger storms. Monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B in the event a thunderstorm interrupts your activities.
Sunday night – A chance for showers and thunderstorms as a cold front approaches. Lows around 70 degrees. Southwest winds at 10-15 mph. Gusty.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Monday – A 70% chance for showers and thunderstorms. Cold front moves through the region. Highs mainly in the 70’s. Winds becoming west at 10-20 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Showers and storms are likely.
Monday night – Showers and some thunderstorms possible in the evening. Lows in the 50’s. Winds west/northwest at 10-15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Rain may continue…new data lingers it longer.
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Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Additional shower and storm chances into Sunday and Monday.
2. A small risk for a severe thunderstorm with high winds and hail.
3. Cold front arrives on Monday
4. Unsettled over the coming 2-3 weeks.
Quite a bit of rain has fallen over the region since Friday. Some places have measured 1-3″ of rain. Many areas have picked up 0.25″-1.00″ of rain. But, once again…some of you have missed out on the big totals. This time of the year is always that way. Rainfall amounts vary greatly. Typical spring weather.
Some of the rain fell in short periods of time. I did see some reports of more than 1/2″ of rain in less than 15 minutes. That is what you call a downpour! Many areas reported frequent cloud to ground lightning and gusty winds.
Saturday brought heavy rain to the region, as well. Widespread 0.50″-1.00″ of rain fell with pockets of 1″-3″+. Lot of rain.
This photograph was taken by Penny McDaniel of western Kentucky. Location of the photograph was Highway 45 looking towards Mayfield, Kentucky. This is a shelf cloud. Low of low level moisture in the atmosphere. Low level moisture makes these type of clouds very impressive. Shelf clouds do not always signify severe weather. They can be accompanied by high winds, but not always. Every storm is unique.
The wet pattern will subside a bit on Saturday night and Sunday morning. Then, as the atmosphere becomes more unstable on Sunday, another round of storms will be possible in the region. The signals for widespread rain are not as impressive on Sunday as they were on Saturday. But, with that said…some places could pick up heavy thunderstorms.
There is some debate among the model data as to how widespread rain will be on Sunday. A dying line of storms will be approaching our region from the west during the morning hours.
Here is the satellite view from 12 am Sunday morning. The deep red is convection. Cold cloud tops. Heavy thunderstorms. This line will shift east overnight. It will weaken. The line will then redevelop on Sunday morning and afternoon. Normally storms weaken at night and then strengthen during the day.
Here is what the line of thunderstorms looked like on radar at 12 am Sunday morning
Right now the best chance of heavy storms will probably be over eastern Missouri and southern Illinois. Elsewhere, any storms that form could also produce heavy downpours of rain, gusty winds, and small hail. Lightning is always a concern this time of the year for outdoor events.
The severe weather risk at any given location is small. This is not a severe weather outbreak type event. Similar to what happened last week. But, it only takes one severe storm to cause problems.
A cold front arrives on Monday. That means that our rain chances will come to an end. But, before the front moves through the region we will have one more chance of showers and thunderstorms. Instability on Monday will determine whether we have to deal with a few severe thunderstorms. Monitor updates, as always.
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
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Campers and those who outdoor events should check radars and the latest forecast information. Right now the risk for severe weather appears minimal. However, lightning is always a concern for outdoor events.
Can’t rule out a severe cell on Sunday when instability is higher. Organized severe risk appears small. Same for Monday. Monitor updates.
I would have an umbrella handy. Some additional showers and storms will be possible on Saturday night and Sunday. Locally heavy rain with storms. Lightning is a concern for outdoor events.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
The wild card tells you where the uncertainties are in the forecast
Wild card in this forecast – the wild card in this forecast will be the risk for a few severe thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday. There will be a lot of instability in the atmosphere. Wind fields will also become increasingly favorable for a few severe storms. Monitor updates. The risk appears small at any given area.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level is TWO for Sunday and Monday. I can’t rule out a severe thunderstorm. Coverage of severe weather would be limited. But, the risk is not zero.
Anyone with outdoor events should monitor radars and lightning data. Even though a thunderstorm might not be severe, it could certainly cause problems if you have an outdoor sporting event or are camping.
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Sunday Severe Weather Outlook – Thunderstorms are possible with heavy rain, cloud to ground lightning, and gusty winds. Sunday will need to be monitored for the potential of a few stronger storms…especially over southeast Missouri. Monitor updated information.
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Monday Severe Weather Outlook – Showers and thunderstorms likely. I can’t rule out a severe storm on Monday. Monitor updates.
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Tuesday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe Weather Is Not Anticipated
Wednesday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe Weather Is Not Anticipated, at this time
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
As we enter the late spring and summer months, keep in mind that slow moving thunderstorms can always produce locally heavy rainfall totals. This is no secret to all of you who are farmers. Your neighbors could pick up 1″ of rain from a thunderstorm, meanwhile you are sitting on dry ground. Forecasting exact rainfall totals during this time of the year can be tricky, at best.
Rainfall totals Saturday night into Monday will vary quite a bit. Once again, same song and dance on that subject. Some areas will easily pick up a quick 1/2 to 1″ of rain. This is what happened on Friday. Some places picked up more than two inches of rain. Many areas picked up 0.25″-0.75″ of rain.
Here is the official rainfall forecast into Monday. Again, same as Friday and Saturday…amounts will vary quite a bit.
This section of the blog is speculative forecast information. Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation. Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.
Highlights
1. We will dry out on Monday night into Tuesday. But, for how long?
2. Cooler and less humid weather for Tuesday and Wednesday.
3. Next few weeks look unsettled with multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain?
Some of you have picked up quite a bit of rain over the past 48 hours. The rain and storm chances will come to an end on Monday night and Tuesday, but for how long?
I am already tracking several disturbances that will approach our region on Wednesday and Thursday. There is some debate on whether we will see new shower and thunderstorm development occur ahead of a warm front and an upper level disturbance.
The air mass south of us will be very humid with a lot of moisture available for precipitation. Once the boundary approaches our region and moves north of our region we will return to stormy weather.
I have looked over the maps for the next 2-3 weeks and I am seeing numerous chances for showers and locally heavy thunderstorms. Too soon, of course, to think about severe weather. Monitor updates as we move forward.
My main concern will be heavy rainfall totals. Some places have picked up a lot of rain over the last couple of weeks (of course some of you have remained mostly dry). It is easy to pick up a quick inch or two of rain during May and June. That will be the case over the coming weeks. Lot of moisture to work with in the atmosphere.
Temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the 60’s and 70’s (for highs). Much cooler.
Click weatherbell.com images for a larger view
Tuesday high temperature forecast map
And Wednesday (below)
Let’s zoom in on the low temperature maps for Tuesday and Wednesday
Chilly 🙂
Wednesday morning lows (below)
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
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Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
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I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
For the most up to date maps – click here
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
This blog was inspired by ABC 33/40’s Alabama Weather Blog – view their blog
Current tower cam view from the Weather Observatory- Click here for all cameras.
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
The Weather Observatory
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
WSIL TV 3 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Illinois Road Conditions
Marion, Illinois
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Downtown Paducah, Kentucky
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Benton, Kentucky
I24 Paducah, Kentucky
I24 Mile Point 9 – Paducah, KY
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