Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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Or email me at beaudodsonweather@gmail.com

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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️

May 16th through May 22nd

Current risk:  Tornadoes are likely.

Current confidence level: High confidence in the forecast.

Comment: 

Friday into Friday night

Severe thunderstorms are likely today and tonight. Some storms could produce baseball-size hail, 80+ mph wind gusts, and tornadoes.  A few strong, long-tracked tornadoes are possible.  Stay weather aware.  Numerous warnings are likely.

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Sunday through Wednesday

A couple of storm systems will move through the region Sunday through Wednesday.  There will likely be additional severe weather risks.  Right now, I am mainly monitoring Tuesday.

Monitor your app notifications.

Don’t forget that I have partnered with a company that will call you in case of a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning.  I use it myself.  This does not replace WeatherTalk, but it is an added layer of protection.

Here is more information on the service

www.tornadocall.com

YouTube Video
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ve2UY2mAkEI

What the tornado warning sounds like
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MXBc03tW_N0

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Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast?  YES.   Lightning is likely today and tonight.  Lightning is possible late Saturday night through Tuesday night.  I will monitor Wednesday onward.

2.  Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast?  YES.  Severe weather is likely today and tonight.

I will be monitoring Sunday through Tuesday night.  Additional severe risks are likely to develop.

I will monitor next Wednesday.

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? SCATTERED RISK.   Heavy storms could briefly flood ditches and roadways on Friday and Friday night.  I will monitor thunderstorm chances next week, as well.  There will be plenty of moisture in the atmosphere for storms to tap into.   

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph?  NO.   

5. Will temperatures rise above 90 degrees?  NO.   

6. Will the heat index rise above 100 degrees? NOT AT THIS TIME.    

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A quick forecast glance.  Your 48-hour forecast Graphics

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A dangerous day of weather is ahead of us.

We already have had large hail this morning.  Some of the hailstones have been up to the size of golf balls.

These morning thunderstorms will push off to the east early in the day.

Then, there will be a lull.  This will allow the atmosphere to destabilize rapidly.

The atmosphere will become extremely unstable this afternoon into tonight.

The Hrrr model shows volatile air with CAPE values above 3500.  That is a lot of energy for storms to tap into.

Data also shows a lot of spin in the atmosphere.  This could lead to tornadoes.

Additional severe thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and evening.  Some thunderstorms will produce 80+ mph wind gusts, golf ball to baseball-sized hail, and tornadoes.  A few of the tornadoes could be intense and long-tracked.

The long-tracked tornado threat will be higher if supercells form.  Supercells are the storms that tend to be alone/out by themselves.  They can tap into all of the atmospheric energy.

Today would be a great day to have three to five ways of receiving severe weather information.

Now is the time to consider your plans for the afternoon and evening hours.  Severe weather is likely.  I expect numerous warnings.

Thunderstorms will exit the region by mid to late evening.  The rest of the night will be quiet.

See the future-cast radars below.

Here are a few NWS graphics

I can’t rule out an upgrade to a high risk.  Either way, a level four is significant.  Upgrading to a level five would not change the forecast.  It would just add to the confidence level.

The timing is HIGHLY uncertain.  Supercells could form well ahead of the cold front.  That would throw off the times.  Keep that in mind.

This is a GENERAL idea, and it could vary.  Be alert from noon onward.  Chances of severe weather will rapidly increase from mid-afternoon into the evening hours.

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Here is a graphic from the Memphis, Tennessee, NWS

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Here is a St Louis, Missouri, NWS graphic

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Saturday will be partly cloudy.  Perhaps a couple of showers in the region.  I capped chances in the 20% to 30% range.

Thunderstorm chances will increase Saturday night through Tuesday night.  Some of these storms could also be severe.

We will have a low-end severe weather risk Saturday night into Monday.  Then, a higher risk of severe weather may materialize on Tuesday/Tuesday night.

Here is the severe weather outlook for Saturday night.

Mainly across southern Missouri and western Tennessee.  Monitor updates.

Here is the Sunday severe weather outlook.  The threat expands a bit farther northeast.  A low-end threat.

Here is the Tuesday severe weather outlook (I will monitor Monday).

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A few showers and thunderstorms may linger into Wednesday and Thursday.

Much cooler late next week.

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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu.  12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

Hrrr model.

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Here is the FV3 model for Thursday through Friday night.

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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 73 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 52 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.40″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 75 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 55 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.20″ to 1.50″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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** NEW SERVICE **  I have partnered with WeatherCall to bring you an added layer of protection.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription.  This does NOTreplace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.

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I use it myself. I encourage everyone to have 3 to 5 ways of receiving their severe weather information. All sources can fail, and the more sources you have, the better prepared you will be in the event of severe weather warnings.

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WeatherCall will call your cell phone or home number if your home is under a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning.  It only calls you ifyour home is inside the warning box/polygon. If you are outside the warning box/polygon it will not disturb you.

Here is a video with more information and a demonstration of how it works.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

If the radar is not working, then email me: Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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