Tuesday update
Tonight
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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog
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May 15, 2017
Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Mild.
Temperatures: MO ~ 58 to 64 IL ~ 58 to 64 KY ~ 60 to 65 TN ~ 60 to 65
Winds: South and southwest at 5 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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May 16, 2017
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. Warm. Windy, at times.
Temperatures: MO ~ 84 to 88 IL 84 to 88 KY 84 to 88 TN 84 to 88
Winds: South and southwest at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 22 mph. Gusts to 30 mph possible over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Increasing winds through the night. Mild.
Temperatures: MO ~ 64 to 68 IL ~ 64 to 68 KY ~ 64 to 68 TN ~ 64 to 68
Winds: South and southwest at 8 to 16 mph with gusts to 35 mph. Higher winds late vs earlier.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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NOTE
Confidence on timing of showers and thunderstorms, in the extended forecast, is rather low. We will have almost daily chances from Wednesday evening into Sunday. There will be several peak times for rain, but that is the part of the forecast that will need fine tuning.
If you have outdoor activities or faming, then monitor updates. There will be rain.
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May 17, 2017
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny. Warm. Windy. Well above normal temperatures. A slight chance for a thunderstorm during the afternoon (mainly over southeast Missouri)
Temperatures: MO ~ 82 to 86 IL 82 to 86 KY 82 to 86 TN 82 to 86
Winds: South and southwest at 8 to 16 mph with gusts to 45 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Strong winds. Isolated wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy. Breezy. A chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 624to 68 IL ~ 64 to 68 KY ~ 64 to 68 TN ~ 64 to 68
Winds: South and southwest at 5 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updated forecasts.
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May 18, 2017
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A 40% for showers and thunderstorms. Warm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 80 to 85 IL 80 to 85 KY 80 to 85 TN 80 to 85
Winds: South and southwest at 7 to 14 mph. Gusty
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? Small risk
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
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Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. A 60% for showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 62 to 66 IL ~ 62 to 66 KY ~ 62 to 66 TN ~ 62 to 66
Winds: South and southwest at 6 to 12 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
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May 19, 2017
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm. A 60% chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 80 to 85 IL 80 to 85 KY 80 to 85 TN 80 to 85
Winds: South and southwest at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 18 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
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Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. A 50% for thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 62 to 66 IL ~ 62 to 66 KY ~ 62 to 66 TN ~ 62 to 66
Winds: South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
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May 20, 2017
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy. A 40% for showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 80 to 85 IL 80 to 85 KY 80 to 85 TN 80 to 85
Winds: South and southwest at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 18 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning. Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
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Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. A 40% for showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 70 IL ~ 65 to 70 KY ~ 65 to 70 TN ~ 65 to 70
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5 to 10 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
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May 21, 2017
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy. A 30% chance for showers and thunderstorms. Warm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 76 to 82 IL 76 to 82 KY 76 to 82 TN 76 to 82
Winds: South and southwest at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected?
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
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Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Timing of the front is questionable. If the front passes through the area on Saturday or Sunday then rain chances will diminish by Sunday night. Low confidence.
Temperatures: MO ~ 58 to 64 IL ~ 58 to 64 KY ~ 58 to 64 TN ~ 58 to 64
Winds: South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Is severe weather expected?
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
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May 22, 2017
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 76 to 82 IL 76 to 82 KY 76 to 82 TN 76 to 82
Winds: West and northwest winds at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 58 to 64 IL ~ 58 to 64 KY ~ 58 to 64 TN ~ 58 to 64
Winds: South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day
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A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado. That is the official National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm.
Monday night through Tuesday night: Severe weather is not anticipated
Wednesday through Sunday: There will be increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms towards the middle and end of next week. We have a non-zero severe thunderstorm risk. That means I am not anticipating widespread severe weather. I can’t, however, rule out some storms becoming severe. Locally heavy rain is also a possibility. Monitor updates.
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Weather Analysis for the coming week:
Calm weather through most of Wednesday. Warm and calm. Plenty of sunshine each day. Temperatures will rise into the middle to upper 80’s on Tuesday. Some of the warmer air of the year, thus far. We did have one day, a few weeks ago, with upper 80’s.
Winds will pick up on Tuesday night into Wednesday night. Wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph will be possible. Breezy. Strongest winds might be late Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Here is what the NAM guidance is forecasting for wind gusts on Tuesday night and Wednesday.
This first image is for 4 am on Wednesday
This next image is for 1 pm on Wednesday. This might be a bit over-done, but you get the general idea. Strong southerly winds possible.
There is a small chance for an isolated thunderstorm over southeast Missouri by Wednesday afternoon. Those shower and thunderstorm chances will begin to increase Wednesday night across the region.
A series of upper level disturbances will push through the area from Wednesday night into the weekend. Each one of these disturbances will produce showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain is a concern. PWAT values and dew points will be sufficiently high for heavy rain. This does not look like the same type of event that occurred a few weeks ago. That event was one stalled front that would not budge for three days.
This event looks to be on and off shower and thunderstorm chances. Timing each of the rain events will be difficult, at best. Changeable forecasts are certainly possible this week with lower than normal confidence in any given twelve hour time period.
I have the highest shower and thunderstorm chances from Thursday into Saturday. Sunday is a question mark.
If you have outdoor plans on Friday, Saturday, or Sunday, then monitor the latest forecast updates. Have alternative indoor plans. Then, we can hope for the best. I suspect we will have showers and thunderstorms on radar both Friday and Saturday. Sunday is still questionable. If the front pushes through on Saturday and Saturday night then we will be rain-free on Sunday. For now, I kept rain chances alive into Sunday afternoon.
The risk for severe weather this week is not zero. It also is not all that great. The greater risk for severe thunderstorms will likely remain to our west. With that said, some of the storms this week could certainly become severe. I am not, however, forecasting widespread severe weather in our local area.
Rainfall totals will vary considerably. Slow moving thunderstorms could produce one to two inches of rain per hour. I am forecasting widespread 0.40″ to 0.80″ of rain from now through Sunday. There will be bands of one to three inches of rain. The bands will occur where thunderstorms train over the same areas.
The atmosphere will be juiced up. Keep that in mind. Thunderstorms will produce heavy rain.
Monitor update, as always. It is May.
Let’s look at a couple of models and NOAA’s rainfall forecast.
This first graphic is the GFS model. These are the rainfall totals that it is forecasting through Sunday.
Click images to enlarge the graphics
This next graphic is the GEM model. These are the rainfall totals that it is forecasting through Sunday.
Finally, here is the NOAA rainfall forecast through Sunday
Click image to enlarge
Let me show you the general pattern idea for the near-term.
EC rainfall through next Monday. You can see the heaviest band well to our west. The EC shows widespread 0.80″ to 1.5″ in our local area.
The wet pattern continues.
Let’s pull out even further in time.
This is the EC and GFS rainfall totals through 384 hours. That takes us to the end of the month.
Of course, this won’t be exact. The pattern idea is what I want you to take from these graphics. It remains active.
We are nearing that time of the year that I dread. Slow moving thunderstorms can produce extremely heavy rainfall totals. Over the last decade we have had numerous events, at the end of May into June, that produced pockets of flash flooding. These type of thunderstorms are nearly impossible to forecast more than hours in advance. They typically impact a few counties.
EC rainfall totals through the end of May.
and GFS model. These are rainfall totals through May 31st. Again, it won’t be exact. Take the general idea.
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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
Interactive Weather Radar Page. Choose the city nearest your location: Click this link—
National interactive radar: Click this link.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky. These are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
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The official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
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The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
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The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
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Some of you have asked if you can keep receiving the texts on your phone and the app. The answer to that is, yes. The Android app will automatically allow that to happen. On the Apple app, however, you will need to go into your app and click settings. Make sure the green tab is OFF. Off means you will still receive the texts to your phone and the app. If you have any questions, then email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue. 2015 through current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC. I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.
I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas. I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita. I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
Many of the graphics on this page are from www.weatherbell.com
WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions
