Monday, May 15, 2017:
.
This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog
May 14, 2017
Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Perhaps patchy fog.
Temperatures: MO ~ 55 to 60 IL ~ 55 to 60 KY ~ 55 to 60 TN ~ 55 to 60
Winds: South and southwest winds at 0 to 5 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
.
May 15, 2017
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Quite warm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 82 to 86 IL 82 to 86 KY 82 to 86 TN 82 to 86
Winds: South and southwest at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
.
Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Mild.
Temperatures: MO ~ 58 to 64 IL ~ 58 to 64 KY ~ 58 to 64 TN ~ 58 to 64
Winds: South and southwest at 5 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
.
May 16, 2017
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Warm. Windy, at times.
Temperatures: MO ~ 84 to 88 IL 84 to 88 KY 84 to 88 TN 84 to 88
Winds: South and southwest at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 22 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
.
Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 64 to 68 IL ~ 64 to 68 KY ~ 64 to 68 TN ~ 64 to 68
Winds: South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
.
NOTE
Confidence on timing of showers and thunderstorms, in the extended forecast, is rather low. We will have almost daily chances from Wednesday evening into Sunday. There will be several peak times for rain, but that is the part of the forecast that will need fine tuning.
If you have outdoor activities or faming, then monitor updates. There will be rain.
.
May 17, 2017
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny. Warm. Well above normal temperatures. A slight chance for a thunderstorm during the afternoon.
Temperatures: MO ~ 80 to 85 IL 80 to 85 KY 80 to 85 TN 80 to 85
Winds: South and southwest at 8 to 16 mph with gusts to 25 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
.
Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy. A chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 624to 68 IL ~ 64 to 68 KY ~ 64 to 68 TN ~ 64 to 68
Winds: South and southwest at 5 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updated forecasts.
.
May 18, 2017
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A 50% for showers and thunderstorms. Warm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 80 to 85 IL 80 to 85 KY 80 to 85 TN 80 to 85
Winds: South and southwest at 7 to 14 mph. Gusty
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
.
Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. A 30% for showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 62 to 66 IL ~ 62 to 66 KY ~ 62 to 66 TN ~ 62 to 66
Winds: South and southwest at 6 to 12 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
.
May 19, 2017
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm. A 40% chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 80 to 85 IL 80 to 85 KY 80 to 85 TN 80 to 85
Winds: South and southwest at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 18 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
.
Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. A 30% for thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 62 to 66 IL ~ 62 to 66 KY ~ 62 to 66 TN ~ 62 to 66
Winds: South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
.
May 20, 2017
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy. A 50% for showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 80 to 85 IL 80 to 85 KY 80 to 85 TN 80 to 85
Winds: South and southwest at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning. Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
.
Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. A 50% for showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 70 IL ~ 65 to 70 KY ~ 65 to 70 TN ~ 65 to 70
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5 to 10 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
.
May 21, 2017
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy. A 50% chance for showers and thunderstorms. Warm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 76 to 82 IL 76 to 82 KY 76 to 82 TN 76 to 82
Winds: South and southwest at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
.
Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 62 to 66 IL ~ 62 to 66 KY ~ 62 to 66 TN ~ 62 to 66
Winds: South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
.
.
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
.
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day
.
A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado. That is the official National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm.
Sunday night: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Monday through Tuesday night: Severe weather is not anticipated
Wednesday through Sunday: There will be increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms towards the middle and end of next week. I can’t rule out severe weather. Monitor updates.
.
Weather Analysis for the coming week:
I hope all of the moms, sisters, grandmother’s, and everyone else had a wonderful Mother’s Day
This is my mom
We still have rivers out of their banks across portions of the region. Be sure and check out the latest lake and river stages. Here is the link to view those ~ River Stage Forecasts
Monday and Tuesday will deliver warm! Warmm! Warmmm!
Warmest temperatures of the year, thus far? Close. Remember, we did have one day when a few spots reached 90 degrees a few weeks ago. That was the day we had thunderstorms ahead of a cold front.
Either way, Monday and Tuesday will deliver widespread 80’s to the region.
Dry weather on both days.
Click images to enlarge (I fixed the issue with images not enlarging when you click on them)
Tuesday temperatures. I suspect widespread mid to upper 80’s.
Dew points will be on the rise, as well. It is going to feel hot and humid on at least Tuesday.
Dew points rising above 65 degrees. Sticky.
Dew point chart
Winds will pick up on Tuesday, as well. Expect southerly gusts above 20 mph.
Looking ahead to Wednesday into the upcoming weekend
We will have to start thinking about showers and thunderstorms as early as late Wednesday afternoon or evening.
On and off rain chances from Thursday through Sunday.
Wednesday will be warm and windy. Wind gusts above 30 mph are possible in the region.
Here is the NAM rainfall forecast through the next 84 hours. You can see that rain remains to our west.
This is through 7 pm on Wednesday.
Now, keep in mind, some data brings scattered showers and thunderstorms into our region late Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday evening.
Low confidence on timing of precipitation. I do believe we remain dry through most of Wednesday.
Let me show you some 12 hour rainfall forecast maps.
Confidence is lower than normal on the timing of the precipitation.
This is a model. Guidance and not gospel. That means we take general ideas from the guidance, but not specifics. Thunderstorms can easily double these amounts.
This is the GFS model’s idea for the upcoming week.
7 AM Tuesday through 7 am Wednesday. You can see the rain stays to our west during that time period.
7 am Wednesday through 7 am Thursday (image below). The GFS delivers showers and storms into the area late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.
These are 24 hour rainfall totals (forecast by the GFS)
7 am Thursday through 7 am Friday (image below)
24 hour rainfall totals
7 am Friday through 7 am Saturday
24 hour rainfall totals (image below)
The image below is 7 am Saturday through 7 am Sunday 24 hour rainfall totals (image below)
This is when the front moves into the area. You can see it is dry further west
7 am Sunday through 7 am Monday (image below)
The GFS has the front moving through our region on Sunday night and Monday morning.
If you were to add up all of the above, then you would have these totals.
Again, this is one model’s opinion on rainfall totals.
.
.
Here is the WPC/NOAA rainfall forecast through 7 am on Sunday
.
Let’s look at the jet stream for this upcoming week. Notice how the winds are coming out of the southwest. Moist flow into our region. Gulf of Mexico will be open for business.
Click images to enlarge
This is the jet stream for Tuesday. You can see the dip into the west (trough) and the ridge over our local area. That spells warm weather.
Here is the jet stream for next weekend. Notice the higher winds in the central United States. Those winds are associated with the storm system as it finally pulls out of the southwest United States.
I will be watching for upper level disturbances as they move into the central United States.
Here is the 500 mb vorticity map for Wednesday. You can see a strong disturbance moving into the Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, and Missouri region. This will provide lift for our potential thunderstorm activity late Wednesday afternoon into Thursday.
This next map is for Thursday night. Look towards the southwest United States. That is a large upper level storm system that will eventually move into our region. This will likely provide the best chance for widespread showers and thunderstorms for Friday into the weekend. Some fine tuning of the forecast will be necessary.
This map is for Saturday night into Sunday morning. The system is rolling into the central United States.
Showers and storms will be the end result. Some storms could be intense.
Find me on Twitter
.
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
Interactive Weather Radar Page. Choose the city nearest your location: Click this link—
National interactive radar: Click this link.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky. These are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
.
The official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
.
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
.
.
.
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
.
.
The Beau Dodson Weather APP is ready for Apple and Android users. The purpose of this app is for me to deliver your text messages instantly. ATT and Verizon have not always been reliable when it comes to speed. The app allows instant delivery.
Some of you have asked if you can keep receiving the texts on your phone and the app. The answer to that is, yes. The Android app will automatically allow that to happen. On the Apple app, however, you will need to go into your app and click settings. Make sure the green tab is OFF. Off means you will still receive the texts to your phone and the app. If you have any questions, then email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
The app is for text subscribers.
The direct download, for the Apple app, can be viewed here
https://itunes.apple.com/us/app/id1190136514
If you have not signed up for the texting service then you may do so at www.beaudodsonweather.com
The Android app is also ready.
Remember, the app’s are for www.weathertalk.com subscribers. The app allows your to receive the text messages faster than ATT and Verizon.
Here is the download link for the Android version Click Here
——————————————————–
If you have not signed up for the texts messages, then please do. Link www.beaudodsonweather.com
Your support helps with the following:
and
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue. 2015 through current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC. I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.
I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas. I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita. I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
Many of the graphics on this page are from www.weatherbell.com
WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions
