May 14, 2019: Non-subscriber post

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Tuesday: Not during the day. Lightning is possible Tuesday night.
Wednesday: Lightning is possible.
Thursday: No
Friday: No
Saturday: Monitor updates. Some storms are possible, especially Saturday night. Timing will need to be worked out.
Sunday: Monitor updates. Some storms are possible. A few strong storms are possible.
Monday: Monitor. Lightning is possible.
Tuesday: Not at this time.

Damp/wet ground conditions.
River flooding continues in many areas. Low-land flooding.

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Tuesday through Thursday

Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Tuesday night and Wednesday will deliver a chance of lightning. The greatest risk is late tonight into tomorrow morning.
Is severe weather in the forecast? Monitor updates. The risk of severe weather appears low.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is Flash flooding in the forecast? No.

Friday through Monday

Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning is possible Saturday night and Sunday.
Is severe weather in the forecast? Monitor. Some storms could be strong Saturday night into Sunday.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is flash flooding in the forecast? Low risk. I am monitoring Saturday night and Sunday for locally heavy rain.

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* The Missouri Bootheel includes Dunklin, New Madrid, and Pemiscot Counties
* Northwest Kentucky includes Daviess, Henderson, McLean Union, and Webster Counties

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May 14, 2019
Tuesday Forecast:

Patchy morning fog. Mostly sunny during the morning. Increasing clouds during the afternoon. Warmer.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (80% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 75° SE MO 70° to 74° South IL 70° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 72° West KY 70° to 74° NW TN 72° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: Wind becoming south at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9 Very High
Sunrise: 5:47 AM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. I will be monitoring a line of thunderstorms approaching our region from the northwest. It would be late at night if it moves into the area. Most likely this would be across the northern parts of southeast Missouri and northern parts of southern Illinois. The area of showers and thunderstorms will then turn south and southeast into the rest of our region. There remain questions about the width of this MCS (thunderstorm complex). There will be some areas the receive more rain than others. The track of the system is still being monitored. Any shift west or east would change your rain totals.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (50% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 54° to 58° SE MO 54° to 58° South IL 54° to 58° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 56° West KY 54° to 56° NW TN 54° to 58°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 58°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 40% Southeast MO 50% IL 60% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50% Western KY 50% NW TN 40%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: A chance for numerous showers and thunderstorms approaching from the St Louis area.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Late night wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty winds near storms. A few storms could be strong.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Sunset: 7:56 PM
Moonrise: 3:25 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 3:32 AM

May 15, 2019
Wednesday’s Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A period or two of showers and thunderstorms moving in from the northwest. Mostly during the morning. New storms may form during the afternoon hours. A few storms could be intense.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (40% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 78° to 82° SE MO 78° to 82° South IL 74° to 78° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 74° to 76° West KY 76° to 78° NW TN 78° to 80°
Wind direction and speed: South at 5 to 10 mph. Winds becoming southwest at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 75° to 80°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 40% to 50% Southeast MO 40% to 50% IL 40% to 50% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40% to 50% Western KY 40% to 50% NW TN 40% to 50%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: A period of numerous activity. Becoming more scattered during the afternoon and evening.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Some storms could be intense. Monitor updates.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates.
UV Index: 3 Medium
Sunrise: 5:46 AM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Scattered thunderstorms.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (40% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 62° SE MO 58° to 60° South IL 56° to 60° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 56° to 60° West KY 58° to 62° NW TN 60° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: Variable wind at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 62°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 40% Southeast MO 40% IL 30% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30% Western KY 40% NW TN 40%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few wet roads. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Sunset: 7:57 PM
Moonrise: 4:32 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 4:05 AM

May 16, 2019
Thursday’s Forecast: Mostly sunny. There could be some cumulus clouds. Warmer. I will monitor the chance of an isolated thunderstorm.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (40% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 83° to 86° SE MO 83° to 86° South IL 83° to 86° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 83° to 86° West KY 783° to 86° NW TN 83° to 86°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 84° to 88°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 20% Southeast MO 20% IL 20% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 20% Western KY 20% NW TN 20%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most of the area should be dry. An isolated thunderstorm is possible. Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8 Very high
Sunrise: 5:45 AM
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Thursday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. An evening shower or thunderstorm is possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low (30% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 63° to 66° SE MO 63° to 66° South IL 63° to 66° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 63° to 66° West KY 63° to 66 NW TN 63° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 63° to 66°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 10% Southeast MO 10% IL 10% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 10% Western KY 10% NW TN 10%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:58 PM
Moonrise: 5:41 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 4:39 AM

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Friday: High confidence. Partly sunny. Warm and windy. Increasing clouds Saturday night with a thunderstorm possible. Rain chances 0% Saturday. 30% Saturday night. High temperatures in the middle 80s. Low temperatures in the lower to middle 60s. Southwest at 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
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Saturday: High confidence. We may see or smell smoke in the region due to fires in Mexico. That smoke will push northward on southerly wind flow. Mostly sunny. Warmer. Increasing clouds Saturday night with a 30% chance of thunderstorms. High temperatures in the middle 80s. Low temperatures in the middle 60s. South and southwest wind 10 to 20 mph.
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Sunday: Medium confidence. Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms both Sunday and Sunday night. Rain chances 60% Sunday and 40% Sunday night. High temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Low temperatures in the lower 60s. South and southwest at 10 to 20 mph and gusty.
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Monday: Medium confidence. Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Rain chances 30% Monday and Monday night. High temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Low temperatures in the lower 60s. South and southwest at 7 to 14 mph and gusty.

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Wind forecast

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Agriculture Forecast

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Graphic-cast

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** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

Missouri

Illinois

Kentucky

Tennessee

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Wind forecast

This will be updated at 8 AM

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The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
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Tuesday through next Sunday: Lightning is possible late Tuesday night into Wednesday and then again Saturday night and Sunday.

Some of the storms could be intense tonight and on Wednesday. The atmosphere will become quite unstable Wednesday afternoon. We have to monitor to see if a few storms redevelop. If storms do redevelop then they would have a very unstable atmosphere to tap into. That means severe storms may occur.

At this time, most guidance does not show new storms forming Wednesday afternoon.

The morning showers and thunderstorms may clean the atmosphere out. If that happens then new storms won’t form. Monitor updates.

A few strong storms are possible with the weekend system. Still a bit early for details. Monitor updates.

Numerous value-added severe weather graphics.

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Here is the latest graphic from the WPC/NOAA.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
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Here is the seven-day precipitation forecast. This includes day one through seven.

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Warmer today. Much warmer as we push into the rest of the week.
Thunderstorms tonight into Wednesday.
I am tracking another system for Saturday night into Sunday. Monitor updates

Current conditions.

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May temperature and precipitation outlook

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Precipitation

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First, we may see or smell smoke later this week as southerly winds pick up. Large wildfires in Mexico are producing the large plumes of smoke.

Weather

Who is ready for some warmer temperatures?

You are in luck. Warmer air is on the way! Not quite hot, but getting closer. I reserve the word hot for 90 degrees and above.

This will be the longest stretch of warm weather so far this year. Thursday through Saturday should hit 80 and above. Sunday may hit 80 degrees but it will depend on cloud cover and showers/thunderstorms.

Some hotter weather is showing up in the charts as we move towards the end of May. Let’s not get ahead of ourselves!

Today will be dry. It will be warmer than yesterday. Highs will top out in the lower to middle 70s.

A cold front will move into our area from the north on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. That front will then return north as a warm front.

Showers and thunderstorms will develop in Iowa, northern Missouri, and northern/central Illinois on Tuesday. This precipitation will push south and east on Tuesday night.

The latest guidance has sped the thunderstorm activity up a bit. It now shows quite of bit of it occurring Tuesday night.

That would leave early Wednesday morning with some thunderstorms, as well. A few storms could redevelop along the boundary Wednesday afternoon. The risk of afternoon storms appears lower.

Perhaps an isolated storm redeveloping. The main precipitation event will be late tonight into early tomorrow morning.

Let me show you a few charts.

Dew points will be high enough for locally heavy rain and perhaps a few strong thunderstorms.

Dew point is a measure of moisture. I look for 58 degrees and above when considering severe weather.

Dew points. 1 PM Wednesday. Notice the boundary between lower and higher dew points? Often times, thunderstorms will ride along that boundary

The question, however, is whether new storms form. At this time, it appears there is a limited threat of new storms Wednesday afternoon.

Let’s take a look at the CAPE. CAPE is a measure of energy in the atmosphere. Thunderstorms tap into CAPE.

Again, notice that boundary between no CAPE and CAPE. Thunderstorms often ride the boundary. Not always.

This is the 1 PM Wednesday CAPE. This is after the first line of storms has moved through the region.

I will be keeping an eye on Wednesday in case a few storms pop.

The NAM guidance brings a thunderstorm complex into our region Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.

Click images to enlarge them

.Dry weather is likely Thursday, Friday, and Saturday. Much warmer temperatures, as well.

We may have the warmest temperatures of the year, thus far by Friday and Saturday. It appears that widespread middle-80’s will be the general rule.

Thursday highs

Friday highs

Saturday highs

Sunday highs

Sunday’s high temperature will depend on clouds and storms. If we have more clouds and storms then the temperatures would be lower than shown below.

I continue to track an active pattern for the Central United States. This pattern will likely bring numerous severe weather episodes from Texas into Nebraska and Iowa. There will be times when the severe weather will push closer to our region, as well.

The next three weeks will bring several rounds of showers and thunderstorms. I advise everyone to monitor updates. Check back frequently when I mention the risk of severe thunderstorms.

This is May. This is the peak of our tornado season. May and June are the peak months. Conditions can change rapidly during severe weather events.

I will be closely monitoring each system. Hopefully, the severe weather will avoid our region. Odds are, however, that we will have to deal with at least some severe weather potential.

I am watching one system that arrives Saturday night and Sunday. This system should bring showers and thunderstorms into our region. The atmosphere will be unstable. It is possible that we have some strong to severe thunderstorms. Monitor updates moving forward.

There are some questions about the timing of the Saturday night and Sunday event. We will need to monitor that and the coverage of precipitation.

Another system will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms Monday night into Tuesday night. The exact timing will need to be monitored.

Here is the Sunday system on the GFS model guidance. It shows most of the showers and storms Saturday night and Sunday morning. Other models push it into Sunday afternoon.

The timing will need to be adjusted as we draw closer to that time period.

Click to enlarge graphics

Temperatures on Sunday will be dependent on cloud cover.

Another system is showing up on the GFS model Monday night/Tuesday. You can see it here.

Some guidance shows 90-degree readings towards the end of May.

Here is the GFS on May 29th. A long way off. We will see how this trends over the coming days.

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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

Timestamps upper left.

I encourage you to monitor updates each day. There will likely be adjustments on rain probabilities and timing.

.Here is the lower resolution NAM model.

Timestamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

Here is the high-resolution WRF model guidance.

This next model is the Canadian model.

Timestamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

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Looking even further out. The GFS is quite active as we move into May.

Keep in mind, the further out in time you travel the lower confidence in the forecast.

Timestamp upper left. Click to enlarge animations.

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These maps update several times a day. Occasionally, in between updates, you may see a duplicate day or one out of sync.

Forty-eight-hour temperature outlook.

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WeatherBrains Episode 693
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Tonight’s guest WeatherBrain is the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at the NWS Office in Memphis, TN. He is a 31-year veteran of the NWS, and worked at offices in west Texas, north Texas, and Phoenix AZ before moving to Memphis. He received his Bachelors Degree in Meteorology from Florida State, and his Masters from the University of Oklahoma. He has focused on severe storms and storm spotter training throughout his career, and has helped develop spotter training materials that were and are used nationwide. Gary Woodall, welcome to WeatherBrains!

Tonight’s second guest WeatherBrain is a graduating senior from the University of Oklahoma’s School of Meteorology. She is Oklahoma Weather Labs Director of Operations and a Senior Representative to the OU School of Meteorology Student Affairs Committee. Also, she is Deputy Director of the New Student Mentoring Program and a member of the OU Nightly Weather Team. Leah Hill, welcome to WeatherBrains!

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like: