Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️

May 13th through May 19tth

Current risk: Monitor updates.

Current confidence level: Medium confidence in the forecast.

Comment:  I am monitoring late Thursday into next week.  Several rounds of thunderstorms will be possible.  Some of the storms will likely be severe.  We will need to monitor the tornado potential. 

A couple of cold fronts and upper level disturbances will push across the region.  Each of these will trigger scattered thunderstorms.  Monitor updates.

We are outlined for severe weather on both Thursday and Friday.  We will need to monitor the tornado risk.

At this time, the risk on Thursday appears minimal.  We will have a strong warm layer aloft (CAP) over the region.  This could prevent storms from forming.  There will be less of a CAP on Friday.  Thunderstorms appear likely on Friday.

I will monitor Saturday through Tuesday.

Saturday and Sunday’s threat will depend on where the front stalls.  If it is farther south, then the risk of severe weather will stay to our south.  If the front stalls over our region, then we will have continued concerns.

Perhaps another round of severe weather along a stronger cold front early next week.  Guidance varies on the timing of that cold front.  Showing it moving into the region anywhere from Monday afternoon through Tuesday night.

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A quick forecast glance.  Your 48-hour forecast Graphics

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The region will dry out tonight. An evening shower will be possible.  Quickly waning with the loss of daytime heating.

Patchy fog will again be possible overnight into Wednesday morning.

Wednesday will be warm and dry.  Temperatures will rise into the eighties.  More humid, as well.  Winds will pick up from the south.

It will be warm/hot on Thursday with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.  Heat index values will jump into the 90s.

Thursday’s highs.  Some of you might consider this hot weather.  I usually reserve the word “hot” for ninety and above.

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Dew points (a measure of moisture in the air) will become muggier on Wednesday and Thursday.  Perhaps in the 70s!  That is air you wear.  Humid!

Those dew points will linger into early next week.  They will go up and down depending on the placement of the cold front.  Those north of the front won’t be as muggy.  Those south of the front will be muggier.

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Dew points are a measure of moisture.  Those high dew points will help build an unstable atmosphere, as well.  Thunderstorms in these dew points will produce heavy downpours, as well (plenty of moisture to tap into).

Moisture is energy for thunderstorms.

Here are the dew point graphics.

Wednesday (mostly mid to upper 60s)

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Thursday (the purple color represents 70 degrees and above dew points).

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Then, we will have to monitor where the front stalls over the weekend.  South of the front will be muggy.  North of the front will be less humid.

The EC model shows the front stalling over our region.

Friday dew points.

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Saturday dew points (less humid north and more humid south).

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A cold front will push towards the region on Thursday and Friday.

We are still outlooked for a severe weather threat on Thursday afternoon and night.

Confidence in severe weather remains low.

Here is the Storm Prediction Center’s latest severe weather outlook.  This is a level one (marginal) risk of severe weather.  The level two (yellow) clips our region.  Over the last 24 hours, they downgraded us one level.

Yesterday, they had us at a level two risk.  This will continue to evolve.

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We will be capped on Thursday.  This raises questions about the threat level.  It is possible that the threat will remain to our north.  I will need to monitor it.

What is a cap?  A warm layer of air aloft that prevents thunderstorms from forming.

I have 20% thunderstorm chances on Thursday.  I have 30% thunderstorm chances on Thursday night.  If storms form, they would likely be severe.  There will be no shortage of instability and wind shear.  Lapse rates are marginal.

Thunderstorm chances will increase on Friday.  Some of those thunderstorms could also be severe.

The CAP on Friday won’t be as strong.   Lift will be stronger on Friday, as well.

We are outlined for a level two (slight) risk of severe weather on Friday, as well.  This will evolve over the coming days.  These outlooks always do.

Over the past 24 hours, they have expanded the threat north northeast.

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Here is the EC future-cast lightning guidance.  This helps determine where it believes storms will form.

The time stamp is located on the upper-left portion of the animation.

This shows you Thursday through Saturday night.  Peak chances of lightning appear to be on Friday/Friday night.

We will need to monitor Thursday afternoon/night.

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Here are the CAPE levels on Thursday.  These are high numbers.  Plenty of unstable air, but questions remain on whether storms will form during the day.  A strong cap could help prevent storms.

Again, if storms form in this environment, they would be likely be severe.

Friday’s CAPE

Here is a model I sometimes use to track the potential of severe weather.  It is showing the Friday threat.

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Unsettled weather is likely Friday night through next Tuesday.

Peak thunderstorm chances early next week will likely be on Monday or Tuesday.  Some of those could be severe, as well.  Monitor updates.

Here are the CAPE numbers for next Monday.   Severe weather is possible next week along the cold front.

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 73 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 52 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.40″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 75 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 55 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.20″ to 1.50″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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